European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Rentokil Initial plc provides fully integrated facilities management and essential support services to government and commercial sector organisations of all sizes across all business sectors. The Company provides services in pest control, hygiene, workwear, facilities and plants.

<ul>
<li>According to The Sunday Times, Philip Jansen is reportedly planning a takeover bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rentokil-initial-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22125:1" rel="noopener">Rentokil Initial (RTO LN)</a>, a FTSE 100 pest control company, with private equity backing.</li>
<li>Jansen plans to boost Rentokil’s US performance and enhance its integration with Terminix, with the potential to market consolidation. Closest comparable Rollins trades at 33.7x EV/NTM EBIT vs. Rentokil's 15.7x.</li>
<li>As a global leader in pest control and hygiene services, Rentokil boasts a strong market position and brand recognition. Rentokil will report its H1 results on 25 July. Long.</li>
</ul>


According to The Sunday Times, Philip Jansen is reportedly planning a takeover bid for Rentokil Initial (RTO LN), a FTSE 100 pest control company, with private equity backing.
Jansen plans to boost Rentokil’s US performance and enhance its integration with Terminix, with the potential to market consolidation. Closest comparable Rollins trades at 33.7x EV/NTM EBIT vs. Rentokil's 15.7x.
As a global leader in pest control and hygiene services, Rentokil boasts a strong market position and brand recognition. Rentokil will report its H1 results on 25 July. Long.


SoftwareONE Holding AG provides IT services. The Company offers cloud computing, portfolio management, procurement, unified communication, and other related solutions. SoftwareONE Holding serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>SoftwareONE is currently considered a special situation case by the market, with its new Board of Directors being more receptive to a potential transaction, possibly above CHF 20/share.</li>
<li>Compelling stock narrative: strong balance sheet (10.3% of market cap in net cash&amp;equivalents), low valuation (8.7x EV/NTM EBITDA, 17.5x Fwd P/E), shareholder return policy (buyback and dividend), and ongoing recovery.</li>
<li>My fair value estimate is CHF 20.04/share, which implies an undemanding 9.8x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA. SoftwareONE releases Q2 and H1 results on 21 August. Long.</li>
</ul>


SoftwareONE is currently considered a special situation case by the market, with its new Board of Directors being more receptive to a potential transaction, possibly above CHF 20/share.
Compelling stock narrative: strong balance sheet (10.3% of market cap in net cash&amp;equivalents), low valuation (8.7x EV/NTM EBITDA, 17.5x Fwd P/E), shareholder return policy (buyback and dividend), and ongoing recovery.
My fair value estimate is CHF 20.04/share, which implies an undemanding 9.8x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA. SoftwareONE releases Q2 and H1 results on 21 August. Long.


Grifols S.A. develops, manufactures, and markets plasma derivatives, IV Therapy, enteral nutrition, diagnostic systems, and medical materials.

<ul>
<li>
Since mid-June, share-price spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (13 have tightened, 5 widened, 1 remained at same level).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols (see section on the company), Media-for-Europe, Sixt.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>



Since mid-June, share-price spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (13 have tightened, 5 widened, 1 remained at same level).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols (see section on the company), Media-for-Europe, Sixt.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July‘24 Report

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, Ortex

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

Ortex

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

NatWest Group plc operates as a banking and financial services company. The Bank provides personal and business banking, consumer loans, asset and invoice finances, commercial and residential mortgages, credit cards, and financial planning services, as well as life, personal, and income protection insurance. NatWest Group serves clients worldwide.

<ul>
<li>The UK government has more than halved its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/natwest-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21008:1" rel="noopener">NatWest Group (NWG LN)</a> over the last two years reflecting an improving financial health for the lender.</li>
<li>The UK government is a strategic shareholder and the selling is forecasted to cause a passive fund demand in the next two months across four indices.</li>
<li>At close of 20 September 2024, the aggregate passive fund demand for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/natwest-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21008:1" rel="noopener">NatWest Group (NWG LN)</a> is currently estimated at 22.8m shares, $95.7m and 0.73 days of volume.</li>
</ul>


The UK government has more than halved its stake in NatWest Group (NWG LN) over the last two years reflecting an improving financial health for the lender.
The UK government is a strategic shareholder and the selling is forecasted to cause a passive fund demand in the next two months across four indices.
At close of 20 September 2024, the aggregate passive fund demand for NatWest Group (NWG LN) is currently estimated at 22.8m shares, $95.7m and 0.73 days of volume.


NatWest (NWG): Passive Push from UK Government

Glencore Plc is a diversified natural resources company. The Company operates in three groups: Metals and Minerals, Energy Products, and Agricultural Products. Glencore Plc offers its products and services around the world.

<ul>
<li>Following the regulatory approval from the Government of Canada, Glencore's cash acquisition of 77% stake in Teck's Elk Valley Resources (EVR) is expected to close on 11 July 2024.</li>
<li>The cash acquisition is forecasted not to cause any passive fund flows based on the deal structure.</li>
<li>The potential demerger introduces the risk for Glencore approaching the exit threshold of STOXX Europe 50. This is yet undetermined due to the long time horizon.</li>
</ul>


Following the regulatory approval from the Government of Canada, Glencore's cash acquisition of 77% stake in Teck's Elk Valley Resources (EVR) is expected to close on 11 July 2024.
The cash acquisition is forecasted not to cause any passive fund flows based on the deal structure.
The potential demerger introduces the risk for Glencore approaching the exit threshold of STOXX Europe 50. This is yet undetermined due to the long time horizon.


Glencore (GLEN): Green Light from Canada for $6.9bn Acquisition of EVR. Demerger on the Table.

European event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

Europe Event-Driven
European event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

Trapping the Royal Rat-Catcher

According to The Sunday Times, Philip Jansen is reportedly planning a takeover bid for Rentokil Initial (RTO LN), a FTSE 100 pest control company,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Private Equity Interest Is Back

SoftwareONE, a special situation case, shows potential for transaction above CHF 20/share with strong balance sheet and low valuation.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July‘24 Report

Since mid-June, share-price spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (13 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

NatWest (NWG): Passive Push from UK Government

The UK Government is a strategic shareholder hence its reducing stake in NatWest is forecasted to cause a free float increase and generate passive...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Glencore (GLEN): Green Light from Canada for $6.9bn Acquisition of EVR. Demerger on the Table.

Glencore's $6.9bn cash acquisition of 77% stake in Teck's Elk Valley Resources is expected to be followed by a demerger which increases the risk...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Trapping the Royal Rat-Catcher

According to The Sunday Times, Philip Jansen is reportedly planning a takeover bid for Rentokil Initial (RTO LN), a FTSE 100 pest control company,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Private Equity Interest Is Back

​SoftwareONE, a special situation case, shows potential for transaction above CHF 20/share with strong balance sheet and low valuation.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July‘24 Report

Since mid-June, share-price spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (13 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

NatWest (NWG): Passive Push from UK Government

The UK Government is a strategic shareholder hence its reducing stake in NatWest is forecasted to cause a free float increase and generate passive...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Glencore (GLEN): Green Light from Canada for $6.9bn Acquisition of EVR. Demerger on the Table.

​Glencore's $6.9bn cash acquisition of 77% stake in Teck's Elk Valley Resources is expected to be followed by a demerger which increases the risk...

Dimitris Ioannidis

SoftwareONE, a special situation case, shows potential for transaction above CHF 20/share with strong balance sheet and low valuation.

Glencore's $6.9bn cash acquisition of 77% stake in Teck's Elk Valley Resources is expected to be followed by a demerger which increases the risk...