European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Biotage AB focuses on life sciences research. The Company provides technologies and solutions in the areas of genetic analysis and medicinal chemistry. Biotage's customers include pharmaceutical companies, biotech companies, and academic institutes. The Company has offices in several European countries, the United States, and Japan.

<ul>
<li>Gross spread is 2.62%, implying a solid annualized return of ~22.0% assuming a June closing—an attractive profile given the minimal regulatory and financing risks.</li>
<li>The market is pricing in a ~93.2% probability of deal success, reflecting strong confidence driven by Board support, substantial shareholder backing (36% aligned), and the absence of antitrust red flags.</li>
<li>Challenging but feasible threshold: requires 84.3% of free flaot to tender to reach the 90% acceptance condition and enable squeeze out.</li>
</ul>


Gross spread is 2.62%, implying a solid annualized return of ~22.0% assuming a June closing—an attractive profile given the minimal regulatory and financing risks.
The market is pricing in a ~93.2% probability of deal success, reflecting strong confidence driven by Board support, substantial shareholder backing (36% aligned), and the absence of antitrust red flags.
Challenging but feasible threshold: requires 84.3% of free flaot to tender to reach the 90% acceptance condition and enable squeeze out.


Lab Tested, Market Approved: KKR’s Biotage Bid Under the Microscope

Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing, Stock Spin-Off Investing

Richard Howe

Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing

Stock Spin-Off Investing

Generate attractive returns by taking advantage of inefficiencies in the stock spin-off market.

Stock Spin-offs

ABB Limited provides power and automation technologies. The Company operates under segments that include power products, power systems, automation products, process automation, and robotics.

<ul><li>April 17, 2025, ABB Ltd (ABB) announced its intention to spin off its entire robotics division.</li><li>The robotics unit, recognized as the world’s second-largest industrial robot manufacturer after Japan’s FANUC, generated $2.3 billion in revenue in 2024, accounting for approximately 7% of ABB’s total sales.</li><li>However, its profit margin stood at 12.1%, trailing the group’s overall margin of 18.1%, primarily due to subdued demand in the automotive sector.​</li></ul>

April 17, 2025, ABB Ltd (ABB) announced its intention to spin off its entire robotics division.The robotics unit, recognized as the world’s second-largest industrial robot manufacturer after Japan’s FANUC, generated $2.3 billion in revenue in 2024, accounting for approximately 7% of ABB’s total sales.However, its profit margin stood at 12.1%, trailing the group’s overall margin of 18.1%, primarily due to subdued demand in the automotive sector.​

Event-Driven Investment Opportunities, Special Situation Investments

Special Situation Investments

Event-Driven Investment Opportunities

Focus on event-driven trades and low risk arbitrage opportunities with short term catalysts

Naturgy Energy Group S.A. distributes natural gas. The Company operates gas storage facilities, as well as owns and operates a fiber optic backbone telecommunications networks. Naturgy Energy Group also markets energy management products, household gas appliances, and installs gas heating systems. Naturgy Energy serves clients worldwide.

<ul><li>Naturgy Energy Group plans a tender offer to repurchase 9% of shares at €26.50/share, with potential upside due to Spanish proration rules.</li><li>Lensar is being acquired by Alcon for $14/share plus a CVR up to $2.75/share, with shareholder approval likely.</li><li>OCI N.V. announced a $1bn cash distribution and potential future dividends, raising net cash estimates to €9.19/share.</li></ul>

Naturgy Energy Group plans a tender offer to repurchase 9% of shares at €26.50/share, with potential upside due to Spanish proration rules.Lensar is being acquired by Alcon for $14/share plus a CVR up to $2.75/share, with shareholder approval likely.OCI N.V. announced a $1bn cash distribution and potential future dividends, raising net cash estimates to €9.19/share.

SSI Weekly Highlights: Tender Offers, Buyouts, Liquidations, and Strategic Acquisitions in Focus

Banco de Sabadell SA attracts deposits and offers commercial banking services. The Bank offers mortgage, consumer, student, and building improvement loans, private banking services, and insurance, and sponsors Visa credit cards.  The Bank operates branches throughout Spain, elsewhere in Europe, the Caribbean, the Americas, and Asia.

<ul>
<li>The CNMC is expected to approve the deal with mild remedies, reducing regulatory uncertainty; however, a potential Phase 3 review by the government could delay timing and introduce political risk.</li>
<li>Sabadell’s standalone defense is robust, anchored in increased dividends, buybacks, and 14%+ RoTE guidance, which have helped reposition the bank as a viable independent alternative in the market.</li>
<li>The offer’s gross spread has turned negative, reflecting investor skepticism about deal success or expectations of an improved offer; the lack of a premium currently weakens BBVA’s negotiating leverage.</li>
</ul>


The CNMC is expected to approve the deal with mild remedies, reducing regulatory uncertainty; however, a potential Phase 3 review by the government could delay timing and introduce political risk.
Sabadell’s standalone defense is robust, anchored in increased dividends, buybacks, and 14%+ RoTE guidance, which have helped reposition the bank as a viable independent alternative in the market.
The offer’s gross spread has turned negative, reflecting investor skepticism about deal success or expectations of an improved offer; the lack of a premium currently weakens BBVA’s negotiating leverage.


BBVA Faces Resistance at the Vault with CNMC’s Verdict Looming

<ul><li>Naturgy plans to repurchase 9% of shares at €26.5/share, with a potential €1.5/share profit opportunity.</li><li>Spanish tender law Article 38.1 allows a linear distribution of 25% of shares among tendering shareholders.</li><li>Previous similar tenders by Abertis and Duro Felguera saw priority allocations of 660 and 683 shares, respectively.</li></ul>

Naturgy plans to repurchase 9% of shares at €26.5/share, with a potential €1.5/share profit opportunity.Spanish tender law Article 38.1 allows a linear distribution of 25% of shares among tendering shareholders.Previous similar tenders by Abertis and Duro Felguera saw priority allocations of 660 and 683 shares, respectively.

Naturgy's Tender Offer: Exploring Spanish 'Odd-Lot' Priority and Potential €500 Upside for Shareholders

European event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits