European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Ercros SA is an industrial company focused on the manufacture and sale of chemical and pharmaceutical products. It is listed on the Spanish Stock Exchange.  The company is divided  into three areas of activity: a business strategic unit, the intermediate chemicals division, and the pharmaceuticals division. Ecros serves clients worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Bondalti lowered the minimum acceptance threshold to &gt;50%, materially reducing execution risk and shifting the Ercros takeover into its final phase, with regulatory approvals complete and no interloper risk.</li>
<li>With Ercros closing at €3.42, the remaining spread to the €3.505 cash offer is ~2.5%, reflecting a market-implied completion probability near 90% and a high-confidence, short-dated carry profile.</li>
<li>Base-Case settlement: early to mid-February 2026 following CNMV approval and a standard acceptance period; returns are now driven by timing rather than outcome. Liquidity remains thin and sizing discipline essential.</li>
</ul>


Bondalti lowered the minimum acceptance threshold to &gt;50%, materially reducing execution risk and shifting the Ercros takeover into its final phase, with regulatory approvals complete and no interloper risk.
With Ercros closing at €3.42, the remaining spread to the €3.505 cash offer is ~2.5%, reflecting a market-implied completion probability near 90% and a high-confidence, short-dated carry profile.
Base-Case settlement: early to mid-February 2026 following CNMV approval and a standard acceptance period; returns are now driven by timing rather than outcome. Liquidity remains thin and sizing discipline essential.


Bondalti-Ercros: Acceptance Risk Removed, Deal Enters Final Execution Phase

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

HOGY MEDICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and sells medical supply and related products including sterilized tools and disposable injectors and masks used by surgeons.

<ul>
<li>
<a target="_blank">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from Carlyle at JPY6,700, a 2.1% premium to the last close and a 69.2% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The offer, resulting from an auction, represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. </li>
<li>Dalton (27.58% ownership ratio) has provided an irrevocable and will reinvest to take a 20% stake in the relevant Carlyle Fund. This is a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Carlyle at JPY6,700, a 2.1% premium to the last close and a 69.2% premium to the undisturbed price.
The offer, resulting from an auction, represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. 
Dalton (27.58% ownership ratio) has provided an irrevocable and will reinvest to take a 20% stake in the relevant Carlyle Fund. This is a done deal. 


Hogy Medical (3593 JP): After Months of Speculation, Carlyle Lobs a Tender Offer at JPY6,700

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

ANE (Cayman) Inc. operates as an integrated logistics company. The Company provides sorting, line-haul transportation, pickup and dispatch services, and other services. ANE (Cayman) offers services in China.

<ul>
<li>Back on the 28th October, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman (9956 HK)</a>, a road freight transportation play, announced an Offer from Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, Temasek, and Singapore-based asset manager True Light. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/1217/2025121701246.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Scheme Doc is now out</a>, with a Scheme Meeting on the 9th Jan 2026, and expected payment on the 16th Feb. The IFA (Anglo Chinese) says "fair &amp; reasonable".</li>
<li>Noticeably absent from this Doc is CDH, believed to be in control of ~18% of shares out.  Given precedents with similar fact patterns, this is probably one deal to avoid. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 28th October, ANE Cayman (9956 HK), a road freight transportation play, announced an Offer from Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, Temasek, and Singapore-based asset manager True Light. 

The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 9th Jan 2026, and expected payment on the 16th Feb. The IFA (Anglo Chinese) says "fair &amp; reasonable".
Noticeably absent from this Doc is CDH, believed to be in control of ~18% of shares out.  Given precedents with similar fact patterns, this is probably one deal to avoid. 


ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Shareholder Vote On 9th Jan. No Mention Of CDH In Latest Doc

Alphawave IP Group plc provides next generation wired connectivity technology, enabling data to travel faster, more reliably and using less power. The Company serves customers in digital infrastructure markets worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Scheme sanctioned, settlement imminent: Alphawave’s acquisition by Qualcomm has cleared all regulatory and legal hurdles. With court approval now secured, shares will delist on 19 December.</li>
<li>Spread fully closed: At a 17 Dec close of 184.6p and FX-implied offer value of ~185.07p, the deal trades at a negligible +0.26% gross spread, eliminating upside for new entrants.</li>
<li>Attractive return for early entrants: Arbitrageurs positioned around 177–179p captured ~3–4% gross return, annualizing to ~8%. Clean execution, founder alignment, and low regulatory friction supported a high-certainty event-driven trade.</li>
</ul>


Scheme sanctioned, settlement imminent: Alphawave’s acquisition by Qualcomm has cleared all regulatory and legal hurdles. With court approval now secured, shares will delist on 19 December.
Spread fully closed: At a 17 Dec close of 184.6p and FX-implied offer value of ~185.07p, the deal trades at a negligible +0.26% gross spread, eliminating upside for new entrants.
Attractive return for early entrants: Arbitrageurs positioned around 177–179p captured ~3–4% gross return, annualizing to ~8%. Clean execution, founder alignment, and low regulatory friction supported a high-certainty event-driven trade.


Qualcomm - Alphawave: Closing the Loop on a Clean Trade

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)</a>’s IFA opines that the consortium’s offer of cash (HK$12.18 per share) or scrip is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 9 January. </li>
<li>The consortium's decision on 4 December not to raise the share alternative cap from 5.00% to 7.50% of outstanding shares is a red flag, casting doubt on the vote's success. </li>
<li>The lack of irrevocables from Mr Wang Yongjun and CDH adds to the uncertainty. Therefore, caution is warranted due to an unfavourable risk/reward profile. </li>
</ul>



ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)’s IFA opines that the consortium’s offer of cash (HK$12.18 per share) or scrip is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 9 January. 
The consortium's decision on 4 December not to raise the share alternative cap from 5.00% to 7.50% of outstanding shares is a red flag, casting doubt on the vote's success. 
The lack of irrevocables from Mr Wang Yongjun and CDH adds to the uncertainty. Therefore, caution is warranted due to an unfavourable risk/reward profile. 


ANE (9956 HK): Uncertainty Ahead of the Scheme Vote on 9 January

Event-Driven
Event-Driven Insights

Bondalti-Ercros: Acceptance Risk Removed, Deal Enters Final Execution Phase

Bondalti has de-risked its Ercros bid by cutting the acceptance threshold to 50%. With shares at €3.42 versus a €3.505 offer, the trade is now a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Hogy Medical (3593 JP): After Months of Speculation, Carlyle Lobs a Tender Offer at JPY6,700

The offer, resulting from an auction, represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. Dalton has provided an...

Arun George

ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Shareholder Vote On 9th Jan. No Mention Of CDH In Latest Doc

Surprising absence of CDH in this latest Doc. Given the ongoing ambiguity as to who owns/controls what, I'm inclined to sit this one out - for now....

David Blennerhassett

Qualcomm - Alphawave: Closing the Loop on a Clean Trade

With the scheme sanctioned and effectiveness imminent, Alphawave offers no spread at 184.6p vs. FX-implied value of ~185.1p. Arbitrage is done —...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

ANE (9956 HK): Uncertainty Ahead of the Scheme Vote on 9 January

The decision not to raise the share cap and the lack of irrevocables from shareholders with blocking stakes cast doubt on the vote's success. A...

Arun George