Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Mayne Pharma Group Ltd. develops and manufactures oral pharmaceuticals.  The Company produces branded generics, specialty generics, and active pharmaceutical ingredients.

<ul>
<li>They say bad things come in threes. First, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a></strong>announced <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/therapeuticsmd-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18482:1" rel="noopener">TherapeuticsMD (TXMD US)</a></strong>'s legal lawsuit. Then shares buckled in the wake of Trump’s executive order on pharma.</li>
<li>The final straw was the FDA accusing Mayne of giving misleading impression of the risks of its oral birth control pill. Shares are now a whopping 29% adrift of terms.</li>
<li>Mayne reckons the lawsuit and the FDA letter are not materially price sensitive; and it intends to move forward with the Scheme. A similar intention from Cosette would be welcome.</li>
</ul>


They say bad things come in threes. First, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)announced TherapeuticsMD (TXMD US)'s legal lawsuit. Then shares buckled in the wake of Trump’s executive order on pharma.
The final straw was the FDA accusing Mayne of giving misleading impression of the risks of its oral birth control pill. Shares are now a whopping 29% adrift of terms.
Mayne reckons the lawsuit and the FDA letter are not materially price sensitive; and it intends to move forward with the Scheme. A similar intention from Cosette would be welcome.


Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Firm Support From Cosette Would Be Welcome About Now

Travis Lundy

Sumitomo Mitsui Construction / Event-Driven

Sumitomo Mitsui Construction Co., Ltd. is a general contractor nationwide and overseas.  The Company constructs infrastructure such as railways, roads and energy facilities.  Sumitomo Mitsui Construction also builds residential, commercial, and institutional buildings such as high-rise housings. Additionally, the Company operates real estate brokerage and leasing businesses.

<ul>
<li>Noted activist Yoshiaki MURAKAMI and associates owned ~12.5% in March 2024, perhaps a tad more. Now they own ~29%. </li>
<li>Integrated Construction Co <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infroneer-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35785:1" rel="noopener">INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP)</a> - congenitally allergic to paying full price for acquisitions - is buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-mitsui-construction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17731:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Mitsui Construction (1821 JP)</a> well below FAs' DCF range midpoints.</li>
<li>But MURAKAMI-san has tossed his cards in, agreeing to tender. This looks like it gets done, but there are interesting angles.</li>
</ul>


Noted activist Yoshiaki MURAKAMI and associates owned ~12.5% in March 2024, perhaps a tad more. Now they own ~29%. 
Integrated Construction Co INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP) - congenitally allergic to paying full price for acquisitions - is buying Sumitomo Mitsui Construction (1821 JP) well below FAs' DCF range midpoints.
But MURAKAMI-san has tossed his cards in, agreeing to tender. This looks like it gets done, but there are interesting angles.


[Japan M&A/Activism] Infroneer To Buy Out Activist Target Sumi Mits Construction (1821) Cheapish

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and markets a variety of medicines and medicine packing materials. The Company's products include anti-tumor medicines, pain-killers, anti-infection medicines, aluminum foil, and other related products.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)</a> could raise up to US$1.6bn in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.</li>
<li>There is a big allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That eliminates the possibility of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.</li>
<li>Jiangsu Hengrui (1276 HK) should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 20 June following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.</li>
</ul>



Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) could raise up to US$1.6bn in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
There is a big allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That eliminates the possibility of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
Jiangsu Hengrui (1276 HK) should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 20 June following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.


Jiangsu Hengrui (1276 HK) H-Share IPO: Index Inclusion Later This Year

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

The Nippon Road Co Ltd paves a variety of roads.  The Company also performs civil engineering works and constructs buildings.  Nippon Road manufactures and sells paving materials such as asphalt and concrete compounds.  The Company, affiliated with Shimizu Corp., operates real estate leasing business.  Nippon Road develops recycling systems for industrial waste.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-road-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12581:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Road (1884 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimizu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8530:1" rel="noopener">Shimizu Corp (1803 JP)</a> at JPY2,520, a 16.2% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The offer represents an all-time high and is 26.0% higher than the 2022 partial tender offer price. However, it is light compared to peer multiples.</li>
<li>The offer is below the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range. However, the required minority acceptance rate is not onerous, and this is a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Nippon Road (1884 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Shimizu Corp (1803 JP) at JPY2,520, a 16.2% premium to the undisturbed price.
The offer represents an all-time high and is 26.0% higher than the 2022 partial tender offer price. However, it is light compared to peer multiples.
The offer is below the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range. However, the required minority acceptance rate is not onerous, and this is a done deal. 


Nippon Road (1884 JP): Shimizu Corp (1803 JP) Tender Offer Is Light but Likely Done

<ul>
<li>In February 2022, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimizu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8530:1" rel="noopener">Shimizu Corp (1803 JP)</a> bought an additional 25% to get to 50.1% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-road-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12581:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Road (1884 JP)</a>. It wasn't a great price.</li>
<li>It was, however, a good trade to buy the dip after, as recommended. I expected Shimizu to come back in one to three years. It took three. </li>
<li>Like last time, the price is light. The multiple is low. There are no synergies in the price analysis, in specific violation of the METI Fair M&amp;A/CorpTakeover Guidelines.  Bah humbug.</li>
</ul>


In February 2022, Shimizu Corp (1803 JP) bought an additional 25% to get to 50.1% of Nippon Road (1884 JP). It wasn't a great price.
It was, however, a good trade to buy the dip after, as recommended. I expected Shimizu to come back in one to three years. It took three. 
Like last time, the price is light. The multiple is low. There are no synergies in the price analysis, in specific violation of the METI Fair M&amp;A/CorpTakeover Guidelines.  Bah humbug.


[Japan M&A] - Three+ Years Later, Shimizu Comes In To Buy Out Minorities in Nippon Road (1884)

Event-Driven
Event-Driven Insights

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Firm Support From Cosette Would Be Welcome About Now

The FDA letter does not appear a material issue. And shares (before the open) are just 6% above undisturbed levels. On balance, this is a buy. A...

David Blennerhassett

[Japan M&A/Activism] Infroneer To Buy Out Activist Target Sumi Mits Construction (1821) Cheapish

Infroneer does a deal to buy beleaguered Sumitomo Mitsui Construction, "saving" it from activist Murakami-san's 29% ownership. The deal comes light...

Travis Lundy

Nippon Road (1884 JP): Shimizu Corp (1803 JP) Tender Offer Is Light but Likely Done

The offer is below the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range and peer multiples. However, the required minority acceptance rate is not...

Arun George

[Japan M&A] - Three+ Years Later, Shimizu Comes In To Buy Out Minorities in Nippon Road (1884)

Shimizu TOB for Nippon Road. This was expected. Round 2 is again at a low price and despite the fact synergies are de rigueur for this kind of deal...

Travis Lundy

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Firm Support From Cosette Would Be Welcome About Now

The FDA letter does not appear a material issue. And shares (before the open) are just 6% above undisturbed levels. On balance, this is a buy. A...

David Blennerhassett

[Japan M&A/Activism] Infroneer To Buy Out Activist Target Sumi Mits Construction (1821) Cheapish

Infroneer does a deal to buy beleaguered Sumitomo Mitsui Construction, "saving" it from activist Murakami-san's 29% ownership. The deal comes light...

Travis Lundy

Jiangsu Hengrui (1276 HK) H-Share IPO: Index Inclusion Later This Year

Jiangsu Hengrui could raise up to US$1.6bn in its H-share offering. The huge allocation to cornerstone investors will result in missed index Fast...

Brian Freitas

Nippon Road (1884 JP): Shimizu Corp (1803 JP) Tender Offer Is Light but Likely Done

The offer is below the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range and peer multiples. However, the required minority acceptance rate is not...

Arun George

[Japan M&A] - Three+ Years Later, Shimizu Comes In To Buy Out Minorities in Nippon Road (1884)

Shimizu TOB for Nippon Road. This was expected. Round 2 is again at a low price and despite the fact synergies are de rigueur for this kind of deal...

Travis Lundy