Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

<ul>
<li>For weeks, if not months, the world has been wondering what the "reciprocal tariffs" would be, and what the logic would be behind them.</li>
<li>There is talk of VAT, and NTBs, and huge tariff step-ups after quotas are exceeded (US exports of milk and cheese to Canada - high tariffs, but quotas not exceeded).</li>
<li>But a quick check of the math on the Trump Executive Order and Annex I tells you the logic is different than what everyone expected. </li>
</ul>


For weeks, if not months, the world has been wondering what the "reciprocal tariffs" would be, and what the logic would be behind them.
There is talk of VAT, and NTBs, and huge tariff step-ups after quotas are exceeded (US exports of milk and cheese to Canada - high tariffs, but quotas not exceeded).
But a quick check of the math on the Trump Executive Order and Annex I tells you the logic is different than what everyone expected. 


Trump Team's Weird Tariff Math - Not Meant to Be Negotiated

David Blennerhassett

Dropsuite Limited operates a cloud based software platform. The Company owns commercialized cloud backup software that enables small and medium enterprises to  backup, recover, and protect their digital assets.

<ul>
<li>On the 28th January 2025, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/excalibur-mining-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3088:1" rel="noopener">Dropsuite Ltd (DSE AU)</a>, a backup, recovery and protection software company, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Texas-based IT automation outfit NinjaOne.</li>
<li>NinjaOne's A$5.90/share Offer was a 34.1% premium to undisturbed. The Offer had the backing of Dropsuite's largest shareholder, Topline Capital (31% - at the time!). Board/management held a further 9%.</li>
<li>
The Scheme Booklet is now <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20250402/pdf/06h8yqg5k4585w.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>, with a Court Meeting on the 9th May, and expected payment on or before the 30th May. The IE (BDO) says "fair &amp; reasonable".</li>
</ul>


On the 28th January 2025, Dropsuite Ltd (DSE AU), a backup, recovery and protection software company, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Texas-based IT automation outfit NinjaOne.
NinjaOne's A$5.90/share Offer was a 34.1% premium to undisturbed. The Offer had the backing of Dropsuite's largest shareholder, Topline Capital (31% - at the time!). Board/management held a further 9%.

The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 9th May, and expected payment on or before the 30th May. The IE (BDO) says "fair &amp; reasonable".


Dropsuite (DSE AU): 9th May Vote On NinjaOne's Offer

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Hanmi Semiconductor Co., Ltd. manufactures and develops semiconductor equipment. The Company's products include auto molding system, sawing & placement system, campress trim/form/singulation system, and pick & place system.

<ul>
<li>Short notional ticked higher on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets and is expected to continue increasing over the next few months.</li>
<li>Since the resumption of short selling, foreign holdings of Korean equities have increased from 29.26% to 29.3%.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> ratio has stayed stable over the last 3 trading days.</li>
</ul>


Short notional ticked higher on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets and is expected to continue increasing over the next few months.
Since the resumption of short selling, foreign holdings of Korean equities have increased from 29.26% to 29.3%.
The Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) to KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) ratio has stayed stable over the last 3 trading days.


Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Grifols S.A. develops, manufactures, and markets plasma derivatives, IV Therapy, enteral nutrition, diagnostic systems, and medical materials.

<ul>
<li>Brookfield has renewed takeover interest in Grifols after a failed bid, signaling confidence in the company’s turnaround and prompting investor speculation about a significantly improved future offer.</li>
<li>Grifols’ financial position has strengthened with a 4.6x Net Debt/EBITDA, €504 million in free cash flow, and strategic refinancing, reducing the likelihood of a capital increase and supporting shareholder value.</li>
<li>Grifols B shares trade at a 21.6% discount to A shares, offering an attractive convergence opportunity, as bylaws mandate equal treatment in the event of a public acquisition offer.</li>
</ul>


Brookfield has renewed takeover interest in Grifols after a failed bid, signaling confidence in the company’s turnaround and prompting investor speculation about a significantly improved future offer.
Grifols’ financial position has strengthened with a 4.6x Net Debt/EBITDA, €504 million in free cash flow, and strategic refinancing, reducing the likelihood of a capital increase and supporting shareholder value.
Grifols B shares trade at a 21.6% discount to A shares, offering an attractive convergence opportunity, as bylaws mandate equal treatment in the event of a public acquisition offer.


Blood, Sweat, and Bids: Grifols Draws Renewed Interest from Brookfield

Kokusai Electric Corporation manufactures and distributes semiconductor manufacturing systems. The Company produces batch processing systems, single wafer processing systems, and other systems. Kokusai Electric also operates advanced thermal process technology development, training, and other businesses.

<ul>
<li>The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.</li>
<li>Kokusai did NOT get added, waiting for a split, an offering, or time to pass. Only one sector change was made. So we see One ADD and One DELETE.</li>
<li>The lack of effort to address sector imbalances within the rules suggests the rules are not as hard as people thought. Intra-review changes could be more interesting in years ahead.</li>
</ul>


The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
Kokusai did NOT get added, waiting for a split, an offering, or time to pass. Only one sector change was made. So we see One ADD and One DELETE.
The lack of effort to address sector imbalances within the rules suggests the rules are not as hard as people thought. Intra-review changes could be more interesting in years ahead.


Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Still Probable Unless Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering/Split

Event-Driven
Event-Driven Insights

Trump Team's Weird Tariff Math - Not Meant to Be Negotiated

Donald Trump has released his Tariff Plan set at "half" the "Foreign Tariffs" against the US. That's a mislabelling. It is nothing of the sort....

Travis Lundy

Dropsuite (DSE AU): 9th May Vote On NinjaOne's Offer

This is a clean deal. Trading tightish at 1.9%/12.8% gross/annualised spread. If small, illiquid arbs are your bent, look to enter here and on any w

David Blennerhassett

Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?

Short notional has increased as has foreign ownership of Korean equities. Stock selection will become increasingly important. The forecast index...

Brian Freitas

Blood, Sweat, and Bids: Grifols Draws Renewed Interest from Brookfield

Brookfield's renewed interest in Grifols signals confidence in its turnaround, with strengthened financials and potential for improved future...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Still Probable Unless Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering/Split

The Nikkei 225 Rebal for Sep 2025 is less interesting than it could be because it appears the Nikkei index team isn't following their own rules....

Travis Lundy

Trump Team's Weird Tariff Math - Not Meant to Be Negotiated

Donald Trump has released his Tariff Plan set at "half" the "Foreign Tariffs" against the US. That's a mislabelling. It is nothing of the sort....

Travis Lundy

Dropsuite (DSE AU): 9th May Vote On NinjaOne's Offer

This is a clean deal. Trading tightish at 1.9%/12.8% gross/annualised spread. If small, illiquid arbs are your bent, look to enter here and on any w

David Blennerhassett

Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?

Short notional has increased as has foreign ownership of Korean equities. Stock selection will become increasingly important. The forecast index...

Brian Freitas

Blood, Sweat, and Bids: Grifols Draws Renewed Interest from Brookfield

​Brookfield's renewed interest in Grifols signals confidence in its turnaround, with strengthened financials and potential for improved future...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Still Probable Unless Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering/Split

The Nikkei 225 Rebal for Sep 2025 is less interesting than it could be because it appears the Nikkei index team isn't following their own rules....

Travis Lundy

Brookfield's renewed interest in Grifols signals confidence in its turnaround, with strengthened financials and potential for improved future...