HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

BeiGene, Ltd. operates as a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery, development, and commercialization of molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drugs for the treatment of cancer. BeiGene serves patients worldwide.

<ul>
<li>BeiGene’s 2024 results beat expectations, mainly driven by strong sales growth of BRUKINSA. In 2025, BRUKINSA's sales would exceed Calquence for the first time.But sales performance of tislelizumab remains lackluster.</li>
<li>Based on positive trend, turning losses into profits is just a matter of time. BeiGene is expected to achieve positive GAAP operating income in 2025, which is an inflection point.</li>
<li>US$24.5-26.5 billion is the valuation bottom line, below which BeiGene is undervalued. Our forecast is that market value would reach US$37.5 billion. So, there is still upside potential in valuation.</li>
</ul>


BeiGene’s 2024 results beat expectations, mainly driven by strong sales growth of BRUKINSA. In 2025, BRUKINSA's sales would exceed Calquence for the first time.But sales performance of tislelizumab remains lackluster.
Based on positive trend, turning losses into profits is just a matter of time. BeiGene is expected to achieve positive GAAP operating income in 2025, which is an inflection point.
US$24.5-26.5 billion is the valuation bottom line, below which BeiGene is undervalued. Our forecast is that market value would reach US$37.5 billion. So, there is still upside potential in valuation.


BeiGene (6160.HK/​ONC US) 2024 Results - The Performance Is Outstanding

Shanghai Henlius Biotech  / Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Henlius Biotech, Inc develops and produces drugs. The Company develops and produces monoclonal antibody biosimilar drugs, bio betters, novel monoclonal antibodys, and other drugs. Shanghai Henlius Biotech throughout China.

<ul>
<li>The NewCo model can be considered as an "intermediate state" for Chinese biotech companies when they hopes to enter overseas markets, rather than a real success in internationalization.</li>
<li>After the announcement of Pfizer-Summit cooperation, share price of Summit plunged. Pfizer is clearly the beneficiary. The possibility of Summit being acquired could be reduced, which make investors unhappy.</li>
<li>Shares of Henlius surged. Thanks to Lin Lijun's dissenting vote, investors have the opportunity to profit at a higher price.Next goal is to be included in Hong Kong Stock Connect.</li>
</ul>


The NewCo model can be considered as an "intermediate state" for Chinese biotech companies when they hopes to enter overseas markets, rather than a real success in internationalization.
After the announcement of Pfizer-Summit cooperation, share price of Summit plunged. Pfizer is clearly the beneficiary. The possibility of Summit being acquired could be reduced, which make investors unhappy.
Shares of Henlius surged. Thanks to Lin Lijun's dissenting vote, investors have the opportunity to profit at a higher price.Next goal is to be included in Hong Kong Stock Connect.


China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.2) - NewCo Model, Pfizer-Summit Deal, Henlius to Enter HK Stock Connect

Equity Capital Markets

Fujian Haixi Pharmaceuticals / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Sales of generic drugs are the largest performance contributor. However, due to VBP and the price reduction, Haixi’s generic drug business may shrink and is hard to drive future growth.</li>
<li>Haixi’s valuation outlook would be mainly based on innovative drug pipeline. The primary goal is to address the issue of druggability of C019199. Haixi needs to provide convincing clinical data.</li>
<li>Valuation of Haixi was about RMB1.948 billion in 2022. Considering the VBP, R&amp;D failure risk of C019199, no licensing cooperation with MNCs, we think valuation could be lower than peers.  </li>
</ul>


Sales of generic drugs are the largest performance contributor. However, due to VBP and the price reduction, Haixi’s generic drug business may shrink and is hard to drive future growth.
Haixi’s valuation outlook would be mainly based on innovative drug pipeline. The primary goal is to address the issue of druggability of C019199. Haixi needs to provide convincing clinical data.
Valuation of Haixi was about RMB1.948 billion in 2022. Considering the VBP, R&amp;D failure risk of C019199, no licensing cooperation with MNCs, we think valuation could be lower than peers.  


Pre-IPO Fujian Haixi Pharmaceuticals - The Concerns on the Pipeline and the Outlook

<ul>
<li>LVC continues to increase its holdings in Henlius, indicating that LVC remains optimistic about Henlius as its internationalization process significantly accelerated. We are interested to see Lin Lijun’s next move. </li>
<li>In the short to medium term, based on our conservative forecast on peak sales of HANQUYOU/HANSIZHUANG in overseas markets and domestic product sales, Henlius’ market value could reach RMB13-16 billion.</li>
<li>Considering other candidates(e.g. HLX15, HLX11, HLX14), indication expansion, drug combination, etc., revenue of Henlius could reach about RMB8-9 billion in the long term, with market value to reach RMB24-27 billion.</li>
</ul>


LVC continues to increase its holdings in Henlius, indicating that LVC remains optimistic about Henlius as its internationalization process significantly accelerated. We are interested to see Lin Lijun’s next move. 
In the short to medium term, based on our conservative forecast on peak sales of HANQUYOU/HANSIZHUANG in overseas markets and domestic product sales, Henlius’ market value could reach RMB13-16 billion.
Considering other candidates(e.g. HLX15, HLX11, HLX14), indication expansion, drug combination, etc., revenue of Henlius could reach about RMB8-9 billion in the long term, with market value to reach RMB24-27 billion.


Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)- LVC Is Betting on Higher Valuation Upside Due to Business Update

<ul>
<li>BUTONG’s growth momentum remained high, but customers are more focused on cost-effectiveness rather than premium products. We are unsure whether BUTONG’s  current high growth is sustainable in this low-growth industry. </li>
<li>The more revenue proportion from baby care products, the lower overall gross margin would be.BUTONG's strategy of emphasizing sales over R&amp;D isn’t conducive to establishing core competitiveness in fierce competition.</li>
<li>After Series B financing, the post-investment valuation reached about RMB2 billion. However, the market value of peers is not high. BUTONG’s post-IPO valuation performance may be lower than expected.</li>
</ul>


BUTONG’s growth momentum remained high, but customers are more focused on cost-effectiveness rather than premium products. We are unsure whether BUTONG’s  current high growth is sustainable in this low-growth industry. 
The more revenue proportion from baby care products, the lower overall gross margin would be.BUTONG's strategy of emphasizing sales over R&amp;D isn’t conducive to establishing core competitiveness in fierce competition.
After Series B financing, the post-investment valuation reached about RMB2 billion. However, the market value of peers is not high. BUTONG’s post-IPO valuation performance may be lower than expected.


Pre-IPO Butong Group - The Current High Growth May Not Be Sustainable

Over 15 years' experience in both finance and healthcare, covering clinic operations, investment and equity research in both China and overseas.

Xinyao (Criss) Wang
HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

BeiGene (6160.HK/ONC US) 2024 Results - The Performance Is Outstanding

BeiGene's sales growth of BRUKINSA in 24Q4 surpasses peers, and 2024 results beat the expectation, with potential for positive operating income in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.2) - NewCo Model, Pfizer-Summit Deal, Henlius to Enter HK Stock Connect

The NewCo model is just an "intermediate state" for Chinese Biotech. After Pfizer-Summit deal, the possibility of Summit being acquired is reduced....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Fujian Haixi Pharmaceuticals - The Concerns on the Pipeline and the Outlook

Generic drugs sales are key for Haixi's performance, but future growth will be hindered by VBP. Considering R&D failure risk of C019199, no...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)- LVC Is Betting on Higher Valuation Upside Due to Business Update

Valuation of Henlius has entered the range of RMB13-16 billion, with P/E of 20x, as analyzed in the insight, mainly driven by outstanding...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Butong Group - The Current High Growth May Not Be Sustainable

BUTONG's high growth may not be sustainable as customers prioritize cost-effectiveness over premium products and the number of births in China...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (6160.HK/​ONC US) 2024 Results - The Performance Is Outstanding

​BeiGene's sales growth of BRUKINSA in 24Q4 surpasses peers, and 2024 results beat the expectation, with potential for positive operating income in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.2) - NewCo Model, Pfizer-Summit Deal, Henlius to Enter HK Stock Connect

The NewCo model is just an "intermediate state" for Chinese Biotech. After Pfizer-Summit deal, the possibility of Summit being acquired is reduced....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Fujian Haixi Pharmaceuticals - The Concerns on the Pipeline and the Outlook

Generic drugs ​sales are key for Haixi's performance, but future growth will be hindered by VBP. Considering R&D failure risk of C019199, no...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)- LVC Is Betting on Higher Valuation Upside Due to Business Update

Valuation of Henlius has entered the range of RMB13-16 billion, with P/E of 20x, as analyzed in the insight, mainly driven by outstanding...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Butong Group - The Current High Growth May Not Be Sustainable

​BUTONG's high growth may not be sustainable as customers prioritize cost-effectiveness over premium products and the number of births in China...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (6160.HK/ONC US) 2024 Results - The Performance Is Outstanding

BeiGene's sales growth of BRUKINSA in 24Q4 surpasses peers, and 2024 results beat the expectation, with potential for positive operating income in...

Generic drugs sales are key for Haixi's performance, but future growth will be hindered by VBP. Considering R&D failure risk of C019199, no...

BUTONG's high growth may not be sustainable as customers prioritize cost-effectiveness over premium products and the number of births in China...