HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Mao Geping Cosmetics / Equity Capital Markets

Mao Geping Cosmetics Co., Ltd. is a cosmetics manufacturing company. The Company researches, produces, and markets lipstick, eye shadow, mascara, eyeliner, blush, and other products. Mao Geping Cosmetics also manufactures and sells makeup tools.

<ul>
<li>MAO GEPING relies heavily on flagship brand MAOGEPING, with over-reliance risks on single brand.The strategy of focusing more on offline sales channels makes it appear less up-to-date with the times.</li>
<li>Different from most brands, the influence of MAO GEPING largely comes from its founder, Mr. Maogeping, who if reduces his holdings, could have a negative impact on the Company's business/prospects.</li>
<li>Solely relying on marketing and promotion to drive performance growth is not a long-term solution.Lack of core technology and product innovation would limit MAO GEPING’s future development in fierce competition.</li>
</ul>


MAO GEPING relies heavily on flagship brand MAOGEPING, with over-reliance risks on single brand.The strategy of focusing more on offline sales channels makes it appear less up-to-date with the times.
Different from most brands, the influence of MAO GEPING largely comes from its founder, Mr. Maogeping, who if reduces his holdings, could have a negative impact on the Company's business/prospects.
Solely relying on marketing and promotion to drive performance growth is not a long-term solution.Lack of core technology and product innovation would limit MAO GEPING’s future development in fierce competition.


Pre-IPO Mao Geping Cosmetics - Potential Risks Behind High Gross Margins

Equity Bottom-Up

Hygeia Healthcare Group / Equity Bottom-Up

Hygeia is a China based oncology healthcare group.

<ul>
<li>According to Hygeia’s management, the 25% growth in previous guidance for 2024 would be exceeded. 24H1 would maintain a growth rate of 40+%, and the growth in 24H2 would accelerate.</li>
<li>However, progress of some projects is slower than expected, so a growth rate of 25%+ in performance forecast seems aggressive.After all, downward adjustment of performance guidance again is very uncomfortable.</li>
<li>P/E of 30-40 is reasonable range in short term. So, Hygeia is undervalued.In long term, revenue growth could fall to 15-20% because the contribution of M&amp;A to performance would decline.</li>
</ul>


According to Hygeia’s management, the 25% growth in previous guidance for 2024 would be exceeded. 24H1 would maintain a growth rate of 40+%, and the growth in 24H2 would accelerate.
However, progress of some projects is slower than expected, so a growth rate of 25%+ in performance forecast seems aggressive.After all, downward adjustment of performance guidance again is very uncomfortable.
P/E of 30-40 is reasonable range in short term. So, Hygeia is undervalued.In long term, revenue growth could fall to 15-20% because the contribution of M&amp;A to performance would decline.


Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078.HK) - High Growth in 2024 Is Not Guaranteed

Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals / Equity Bottom-Up

Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals Co. Ltd. manufactures and distributes pharmaceutical products. The Company produces synthetic human insulins, insulin materials, insulin glargine injections, and other products. Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals also produces medical equipment.

<ul>
<li>The performance of most TCM formula granule enterprises showed slow growth or even decline due to VBP in 2023. Although VBP will continue, it also brings opportunities for related companies. </li>
<li>Customized production, expensive upstream raw materials/production equipment, complex supply chain systems, etc. are all major reasons for the high prices of CAR-T therapy, but we see hope for changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gan-lee-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36237:1" rel="noopener">Gan &amp; Lee Pharmaceuticals (603087 CH)</a>’s core insulin business will continue to have decent growth based on positive VBP renewal results. It's expected that in 2024, performance would further rebound.</li>
</ul>


The performance of most TCM formula granule enterprises showed slow growth or even decline due to VBP in 2023. Although VBP will continue, it also brings opportunities for related companies. 
Customized production, expensive upstream raw materials/production equipment, complex supply chain systems, etc. are all major reasons for the high prices of CAR-T therapy, but we see hope for changes.

Gan &amp; Lee Pharmaceuticals (603087 CH)’s core insulin business will continue to have decent growth based on positive VBP renewal results. It's expected that in 2024, performance would further rebound.


China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.28)-TCM Formula Granule Outlook, Reduce CAR-T's Price, Gan & Lee Pharma

<ul>
<li>Sunho’s pipeline has high risk and there is a long way to go to demonstrate their final clinical value. It’s highly uncertain if Sunho would bring expected return to investors.</li>
<li>The entities involved in the process of reorganization were all related parties. Investment from Efung Anhe/Efung Ansheng sparked concern from CSRC. Sunho is required to explain whether there’s any benefit transfer.</li>
<li>Due to the lack of strong fundamentals, there is no reason for high valuation. It’s not surprising if Sunho’s valuation finally falls below HKD1.53 billion (or even below HK$1 billion).  </li>
</ul>


Sunho’s pipeline has high risk and there is a long way to go to demonstrate their final clinical value. It’s highly uncertain if Sunho would bring expected return to investors.
The entities involved in the process of reorganization were all related parties. Investment from Efung Anhe/Efung Ansheng sparked concern from CSRC. Sunho is required to explain whether there’s any benefit transfer.
Due to the lack of strong fundamentals, there is no reason for high valuation. It’s not surprising if Sunho’s valuation finally falls below HKD1.53 billion (or even below HK$1 billion).  


Pre-IPO Sunho Biologics (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Event-Driven

Beijing Tiantan Biological Products / Event-Driven

Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited researches, develops, and commercializes biological products.  The Company provides treatment for hepatitis and offers a line of vaccine products including hepatitis vaccines and rubella vaccines.

Beijing Tiantan Biological Products (600161 CH)

<ul>
<li>Guangming District State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Bureau reached a cooperation agreement with China National Biotec to establish a joint venture, which will become the new controlling shareholder of Weiguang.</li>
<li>Since Tiantan is already Sinopharm’s subsidiary, there will be horizontal competition issue in the field of blood product business between Tiantan and Weiguang, mainly due to significant business overlap.</li>
<li>Some spin-offs and integrations are expected between Tiantan and Weiguang. As the reform of SOE enters a new stage, the two companies could end up very different.</li>
</ul>


Guangming District State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Bureau reached a cooperation agreement with China National Biotec to establish a joint venture, which will become the new controlling shareholder of Weiguang.
Since Tiantan is already Sinopharm’s subsidiary, there will be horizontal competition issue in the field of blood product business between Tiantan and Weiguang, mainly due to significant business overlap.
Some spin-offs and integrations are expected between Tiantan and Weiguang. As the reform of SOE enters a new stage, the two companies could end up very different.


Tiantan (600161CH) To Acquire Weiguang (002880CH)- New King Rises in China's Blood Products Industry

Over 15 years' experience in both finance and healthcare, covering clinic operations, investment and equity research in both China and overseas.

Xinyao (Criss) Wang
HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Pre-IPO Mao Geping Cosmetics - Potential Risks Behind High Gross Margins

Despite high gross margin, MAO GEPING's heavy reliance on its flagship brand and founder could pose risks. Lack of innovation and over-reliance on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078.HK) - High Growth in 2024 Is Not Guaranteed

Hygeia achieved gratifying results in 24Q1, but progress of some projects has been delayed, making high growth in 2024 uncertain. Any future...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.28)-TCM Formula Granule Outlook, Reduce CAR-T's Price, Gan & Lee Pharma

TCM formula granule VBP brings challenge for company, but it also brings hope. There're breakthrough point of CAR-T's price decline. Gan & Lee has...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Sunho Biologics (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Sunho's high-risk pipeline makes future return highly uncertain. Reorganization with related parties and "sudden" capital increase raised concern...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Tiantan (600161CH) To Acquire Weiguang (002880CH)- New King Rises in China's Blood Products Industry

The change of Weiguang's actual controller will bring about a series of restructuring.As SOE reform enters new stage, investors will have good...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Mao Geping Cosmetics - Potential Risks Behind High Gross Margins

Despite high gross margin, ​MAO GEPING's heavy reliance on its flagship brand and founder could pose risks. Lack of innovation and over-reliance on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078.HK) - High Growth in 2024 Is Not Guaranteed

Hygeia achieved gratifying results in 24Q1, but progress of some projects has been delayed, making high growth in 2024 uncertain. Any future...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.28)-TCM Formula Granule Outlook, Reduce CAR-T's Price, Gan & Lee Pharma

TCM formula granule VBP brings challenge for company, but it also brings hope. There're breakthrough point of CAR-T's price decline. Gan & Lee has...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Sunho Biologics (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

​Sunho's high-risk pipeline makes future return highly uncertain. Reorganization with related parties and "sudden" capital increase raised concern...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Tiantan (600161CH) To Acquire Weiguang (002880CH)- New King Rises in China's Blood Products Industry

The change of Weiguang's actual controller will bring about a series of restructuring.As SOE reform enters new stage, investors will have good...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Despite high gross margin, MAO GEPING's heavy reliance on its flagship brand and founder could pose risks. Lack of innovation and over-reliance on...

Sunho's high-risk pipeline makes future return highly uncertain. Reorganization with related parties and "sudden" capital increase raised concern...