Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 5th December, Gordan Tang (&amp; his wife Celine) acquired 2.14% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suntec-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:151:1" rel="noopener">Suntec REIT (SUN SP)</a>, lifting their stake to 31.45% from 29.31%, triggering a MGO.</li>
<li>This is appears to be a technical Offer. The Offer price is S$1.16/share against a S$1.17/share undisturbed price. Timing, however, IS curious after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a>'s recent Offer.</li>
<li>The Offer Doc is now out and shareholders can tender. At S$1.18/share as I type, zero tendering should occur. The Offer closes on the 20 January, unless extended.</li>
</ul>


On the 5th December, Gordan Tang (&amp; his wife Celine) acquired 2.14% in Suntec REIT (SUN SP), lifting their stake to 31.45% from 29.31%, triggering a MGO.
This is appears to be a technical Offer. The Offer price is S$1.16/share against a S$1.17/share undisturbed price. Timing, however, IS curious after ESR Group (1821 HK)'s recent Offer.
The Offer Doc is now out and shareholders can tender. At S$1.18/share as I type, zero tendering should occur. The Offer closes on the 20 January, unless extended.


Suntec REIT (SUN SP): Tang's Offer Now Open

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Premiumization is reshaping India's consumer market, with rising demand for high-quality products across FMCG, automobiles, electronics, and luxury goods driven by growing affluence and aspirations.</li>
<li>India’s per capita GDP surpassing $2,500 and increasing digitalization have unlocked significant growth in premium categories, positioning India as a global hotspot for aspirational consumption.</li>
<li>The shift from affordability to quality signals immense opportunities in premium segments, making it essential for businesses to innovate while balancing premium and budget-friendly offerings.</li>
</ul>


Premiumization is reshaping India's consumer market, with rising demand for high-quality products across FMCG, automobiles, electronics, and luxury goods driven by growing affluence and aspirations.
India’s per capita GDP surpassing $2,500 and increasing digitalization have unlocked significant growth in premium categories, positioning India as a global hotspot for aspirational consumption.
The shift from affordability to quality signals immense opportunities in premium segments, making it essential for businesses to innovate while balancing premium and budget-friendly offerings.


Thematic Report: India- World’s Next Hotspot for Premium Brands

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday, the 20th December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">GAPack (468 HK)</a> announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-xinjufeng-technology-packaging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36744:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Xinjufeng Technology (301296 CH)</a> (XJF) had satisfied all pre-conditions.</li>
<li>The Offer Document has now been dispatched, and the Offer is now open for tendering. The First Close is the 21st January.</li>
<li>This Doc is largely a nothing burger. The Response Document, which will include the IFA, is required to be dispatched on or before the 7 January 2025. </li>
</ul>


On Friday, the 20th December, GAPack (468 HK) announced that Shandong Xinjufeng Technology (301296 CH) (XJF) had satisfied all pre-conditions.
The Offer Document has now been dispatched, and the Offer is now open for tendering. The First Close is the 21st January.
This Doc is largely a nothing burger. The Response Document, which will include the IFA, is required to be dispatched on or before the 7 January 2025. 


HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2024 is the year when CanSino achieves a fundamental reversal. Based on the current sales performance of meningococcal vaccines, 2024 full-year revenue is expected to reach about RMB840 million.</li>
<li>Under normal circumstances, PCV13i is expected to be approved in Q1-Q2 next year. If everything goes smoothly, PCV13i would be approved at the beginning of next year at the earliest.</li>
<li>Market value of RMB8-10 billion is reasonable range for CanSino. If a new virus causes a pandemic in the future, this will be a powerful catalyst for stock price.</li>
</ul>


2024 is the year when CanSino achieves a fundamental reversal. Based on the current sales performance of meningococcal vaccines, 2024 full-year revenue is expected to reach about RMB840 million.
Under normal circumstances, PCV13i is expected to be approved in Q1-Q2 next year. If everything goes smoothly, PCV13i would be approved at the beginning of next year at the earliest.
Market value of RMB8-10 billion is reasonable range for CanSino. If a new virus causes a pandemic in the future, this will be a powerful catalyst for stock price.


CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) - From 2025 Onwards, Cansino Will Bring Decent Returns

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Isetan-Mitsukoshi has gone from being the most cautious forecaster among the big department store retailers to the most optimistic.</li>
<li>This is largely on the back of previously unimaginable sales records at its main stores, especially Isetan Shinjuku.</li>
<li>All of which is bringing in piles of profit, with projections of exceeding its previous average profit by four times.</li>
</ul>


Isetan-Mitsukoshi has gone from being the most cautious forecaster among the big department store retailers to the most optimistic.
This is largely on the back of previously unimaginable sales records at its main stores, especially Isetan Shinjuku.
All of which is bringing in piles of profit, with projections of exceeding its previous average profit by four times.


Suntec REIT (SUN SP): Tang's Offer Now Open

This appears an obligatory MGO. I wouldn't expect the Tangs to extend beyond the First Close. Suntec is not expensive at 0.6x P/B. But I don't...

David Blennerhassett

Thematic Report: India- World’s Next Hotspot for Premium Brands

India's rising affluence and aspirations are driving demand for high-quality products across various sectors, making the country a global hotspot...

Nimish Maheshwari

GAPack (468 HK): XJF's Offer Now Open

Even if Bi (9.17%) and Hong (5.55%) don't tender, XJF should still get to 50%. It's still doable even if Mengniu doesn't tender. If illiquid arbs...

David Blennerhassett

CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) - From 2025 Onwards, Cansino Will Bring Decent Returns

CanSino's revenue expected to hit RMB840 million in 2024, with market value of RMB8-10 billion. Approval for PCV13i expected in early 2025. Future...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Isetan Shinjuku to Hit ¥424 Billion

Isetan-Mitsukoshi, once cautious, now optimistic as record sales at main stores drive profits to exceed previous averages by four times.

Michael Causton

Suntec REIT (SUN SP): Tang's Offer Now Open

This appears an obligatory MGO. I wouldn't expect the Tangs to extend beyond the First Close. Suntec is not expensive at 0.6x P/B. But I don't...

David Blennerhassett

Thematic Report: India- World’s Next Hotspot for Premium Brands

​India's rising affluence and aspirations are driving demand for high-quality products across various sectors, making the country a global hotspot...

Nimish Maheshwari

GAPack (468 HK): XJF's Offer Now Open

Even if Bi (9.17%) and Hong (5.55%) don't tender, XJF should still get to 50%. It's still doable even if Mengniu doesn't tender. If illiquid arbs...

David Blennerhassett

CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) - From 2025 Onwards, Cansino Will Bring Decent Returns

​CanSino's revenue expected to hit RMB840 million in 2024, with market value of RMB8-10 billion. Approval for PCV13i expected in early 2025. Future...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Isetan Shinjuku to Hit ¥424 Billion

​Isetan-Mitsukoshi, once cautious, now optimistic as record sales at main stores drive profits to exceed previous averages by four times.

Michael Causton

India's rising affluence and aspirations are driving demand for high-quality products across various sectors, making the country a global hotspot...

CanSino's revenue expected to hit RMB840 million in 2024, with market value of RMB8-10 billion. Approval for PCV13i expected in early 2025. Future...

Isetan-Mitsukoshi, once cautious, now optimistic as record sales at main stores drive profits to exceed previous averages by four times.