HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The slow progress of privatization is related to recent high-level changes in CNPGC. Decisions on SOE deals with "strategic purpose" require careful considerations, not based on "one leader’s personal preferences".</li>
<li>Based on public information, we cannot find convincing reason to prove that CNPGC has changed its mind.There’re rumors that China TCM’s privatization is still considered important project on the agenda.</li>
<li>China TCM’s has strong fundamentals to support valuation. If there is no announcement, the privatization process is expected to proceed as usual, and we continue to wait for the voting.  </li>
</ul>


The slow progress of privatization is related to recent high-level changes in CNPGC. Decisions on SOE deals with "strategic purpose" require careful considerations, not based on "one leader’s personal preferences".
Based on public information, we cannot find convincing reason to prove that CNPGC has changed its mind.There’re rumors that China TCM’s privatization is still considered important project on the agenda.
China TCM’s has strong fundamentals to support valuation. If there is no announcement, the privatization process is expected to proceed as usual, and we continue to wait for the voting.  


China TCM (570.HK) Update - Behind The Share Price Plunge and Prospects for Privatization Progress

Director, RaaS Advisory, Research as a Service (RaaS)

Research as a Service (RaaS)

Director, RaaS Advisory

Insightful Financial Models and Research Analysis

Connect to the right investors through smart and insightful financial models and research analysis.

Equity Bottom-Up

Qantm Intellectual Property / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>RaaS Reseach Group has published an update report on IP services group QANTM Intellectual Property (ASX:QIP) following the release of the Scheme of Arrangement documentation with Adamantem Capital on 25 June.The documentation includes the Independent Expert’s report from Grant Thornton Corporate Finance which concludes that the Scheme is “fair and reasonable” and in the “best interests of QANTM shareholders in the absence of a superior alternative proposal emerging”.</li><li>The independent expert concludes that the fair market value range for QANTM shares on a control basis is from $1.736/share to $2.098/share, suggesting a respective premium of 4.7% and discount of 13.4% to the cash offer of $1.817/share.</li><li>Our existing DCF-based valuation has remained unchanged at $1.79/share.</li></ul>

RaaS Reseach Group has published an update report on IP services group QANTM Intellectual Property (ASX:QIP) following the release of the Scheme of Arrangement documentation with Adamantem Capital on 25 June.The documentation includes the Independent Expert’s report from Grant Thornton Corporate Finance which concludes that the Scheme is “fair and reasonable” and in the “best interests of QANTM shareholders in the absence of a superior alternative proposal emerging”.The independent expert concludes that the fair market value range for QANTM shares on a control basis is from $1.736/share to $2.098/share, suggesting a respective premium of 4.7% and discount of 13.4% to the cash offer of $1.817/share.Our existing DCF-based valuation has remained unchanged at $1.79/share.

Qantm Intellectual Property - "Fair and reasonable": says independent expert

Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Founder & Head of Research

Fortress Hill Advisors

Founded in Hong Kong in 2019, Fortress Hill Advisor seeks to provide premium economic and financial researches.

Premium Economic & Investment Research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In a recent forum, Chinese Premier Li Qiang is confident that Chinese economy was stagnant simply because of COVID. Now that COVID has gone, Chinese economy will eventually heal itself.</li>
<li>We believe rather Chinese economy will still be bumpy after COVID, with three major arrows against Chinese Economy, namely property sector slump, local government debt, and weak private sector.</li>
<li>Instead of the "self recovery" view of the economy proposed by Li, we believe government should more actively roll out fiscal and monetary stimulus.</li>
</ul>


In a recent forum, Chinese Premier Li Qiang is confident that Chinese economy was stagnant simply because of COVID. Now that COVID has gone, Chinese economy will eventually heal itself.
We believe rather Chinese economy will still be bumpy after COVID, with three major arrows against Chinese Economy, namely property sector slump, local government debt, and weak private sector.
Instead of the "self recovery" view of the economy proposed by Li, we believe government should more actively roll out fiscal and monetary stimulus.


Response to Premier Li: Post COVID Chinese Economy

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Foreign shareholding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> has dropped to 54.83% and that results in foreign room crossing the 'magical' 25% mark.</li>
<li>The increase in foreign room could lead to passive trackers of a global index needing to buy 256m shares (US$5.3bn; 11.5x ADV) at the end of August.</li>
<li>There will definitely be positioning in the stock but there should still be upside in the stock. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:559:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (ADR) (HDB US)</a> line was up 4.5% overnight.</li>
</ul>


Foreign shareholding in HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has dropped to 54.83% and that results in foreign room crossing the 'magical' 25% mark.
The increase in foreign room could lead to passive trackers of a global index needing to buy 256m shares (US$5.3bn; 11.5x ADV) at the end of August.
There will definitely be positioning in the stock but there should still be upside in the stock. The HDFC Bank (ADR) (HDB US) line was up 4.5% overnight.


HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Foreign Room Crosses 25%; Index Implications & Positioning for US$5bn+ Buying

<ul>
<li>We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.</li>
<li>We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.
We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

China TCM (570.HK) Update - Behind The Share Price Plunge and Prospects for Privatization Progress

Recent high-level changes in CNPGC are slowing down China TCM's privatization progress. It's expected to hear new progress under new...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Qantm Intellectual Property - "Fair and reasonable": says independent expert

RaaS Reseach Group has published an update report on IP services group QANTM Intellectual Property (ASX:QIP) following the release of the Scheme...

Research as a Service (RaaS)

Response to Premier Li: Post COVID Chinese Economy

Chinese Premier Li Qiang believes the economy will recover on its own post-COVID, but we warn of potential challenges ahead, suggesting stronger...

Alex Ng

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Foreign Room Crosses 25%; Index Implications & Positioning for US$5bn+ Buying

HDFC Bank announced its June-end shareholding last evening. Foreign room is higher than 25% and the ADR jumped 4.5% overnight. Passive trackers...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

There could be nearly 80 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

China TCM (570.HK) Update - Behind The Share Price Plunge and Prospects for Privatization Progress

Recent high-level changes in CNPGC are slowing down China TCM's privatization progress. It's expected to hear new progress under new...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Qantm Intellectual Property - "Fair and reasonable": says independent expert

RaaS Reseach Group has published an update report on IP services group QANTM Intellectual Property (ASX:QIP) following the release of the Scheme...

Research as a Service (RaaS)

Response to Premier Li: Post COVID Chinese Economy

​Chinese Premier Li Qiang believes the economy will recover on its own post-COVID, but we warn of potential challenges ahead, suggesting stronger...

Alex Ng

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Foreign Room Crosses 25%; Index Implications & Positioning for US$5bn+ Buying

HDFC Bank announced its June-end shareholding last evening. Foreign room is higher than 25% and the ADR jumped 4.5% overnight. Passive trackers...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

There could be nearly 80 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

Chinese Premier Li Qiang believes the economy will recover on its own post-COVID, but we warn of potential challenges ahead, suggesting stronger...