Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a>, S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index for the March rebalance will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>There will also be capping changes for the Select Sector indices that will result in a round-trip trade of US$13.1bn. Constituent changes will add to that flow.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOGL US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electronic-arts-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1179:1" rel="noopener">Electronic Arts</a>. Largest outflows are from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta Platforms</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/linde-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35233:1" rel="noopener">Linde</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcdonald-s-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1425:1" rel="noopener">Mcdonald's Corp</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/take-two-interactive-software-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14948:1" rel="noopener">Take Two Interactive</a>.</li>
</ul>


Constituent changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX), S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index for the March rebalance will be announced after market close on Friday.
There will also be capping changes for the Select Sector indices that will result in a round-trip trade of US$13.1bn. Constituent changes will add to that flow.
The largest inflows will be in Amazon.com, Tesla, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Alphabet (GOOGL US) and Electronic Arts. Largest outflows are from Broadcom, Meta Platforms, Linde, Mcdonald's Corp and Take Two Interactive.


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes & US$13bn Trade

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Amazon.com reported a strong fourth quarter for 2024, with a revenue of $187.8 billion, reflecting a year-over year growth of 10%.</li><li>Notably, this growth was primarily driven by the company's strategic focus on expanding its product selection, competitive pricing, and enhanced delivery services, which significantly boosted customer engagement and unit sales, especially in the North American and International segments.</li><li>The company's operating income also saw a substantial improvement, reaching $21.2 billion, marking a 61% increase from the previous year, further supported by effective cost management and productivity improvements throughout its distribution network.</li></ul>

Amazon.com reported a strong fourth quarter for 2024, with a revenue of $187.8 billion, reflecting a year-over year growth of 10%.Notably, this growth was primarily driven by the company's strategic focus on expanding its product selection, competitive pricing, and enhanced delivery services, which significantly boosted customer engagement and unit sales, especially in the North American and International segments.The company's operating income also saw a substantial improvement, reaching $21.2 billion, marking a 61% increase from the previous year, further supported by effective cost management and productivity improvements throughout its distribution network.

Amazon.com Inc - Amazon's AI Billions, Store Struggles, & The Risks No One Is Talking About!

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives, MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives

MBI is the abbreviation for “Mostly Borrowed Ideas”. Why “Mostly Borrowed Ideas?” As a generalist, I do not have a background in any particular sector. I enjoy navigating across industries, businesses, and countries to learn, understand, and connect the dots. In any case, most ideas and innovations are incremental in nature. Very few of us are smart enough to come up with truly original or groundbreaking ideas. I am Abdullah Al-Rezwan. I was born and brought up in Bangladesh. I went to University of Dhaka for my undergrad and majored in Finance. After working three and half years in Equity Research (Sell-side) covering Financial Sector in Bangladesh, I left Bangladesh to pursue my MBA in the US. I graduated within top 10% of the class from Cornell University's two-year MBA program and worked on the buy-side following my graduation. During my time at Cornell, I won two stock pitch competitions and also became finalists in four other competitions. I thoroughly enjoyed my stint as a generalist in the US large cap team at Madison Investments and covered a wide range of companies from UnitedHealth to Amazon and Boeing before US immigration reality paused my career in investment management. As my work authorization expired, I moved to Canada in January, 2021. Then in early 2022, I was able to return to the US.

<ul><li>Amazon faced ~900 Mn FX headwind in 4Q’24 which was ~700 mn higher than assumed.</li><li>For the third consecutive quarters, AWS grew 19% YoY. Ads grew by +18% YoY, and revenues in other segments increased by mostly High Single Digit (HSD) rate.</li><li>I’ll discuss more about AWS later, but let’s talk more about Amazon ex-AWS first.</li></ul>

Amazon faced ~900 Mn FX headwind in 4Q’24 which was ~700 mn higher than assumed.For the third consecutive quarters, AWS grew 19% YoY. Ads grew by +18% YoY, and revenues in other segments increased by mostly High Single Digit (HSD) rate.I’ll discuss more about AWS later, but let’s talk more about Amazon ex-AWS first.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Amazon released (1 Nov HKT) 3Q24 results: revenue was US$158.9bn, up 11% YoY (3Q23: 13%), and was 2%/1% better than our estimates/Bloomberg consensus, while total operating profit was US$17.4bn, up 56% YoY, 18/16% better than our estimates/consensus, driven by an all-round OPM margin beat for all three business segments (North America, International, and AWS).</li><li>Management guided for US$181.5bn-188.5bn revenue for 4Q24E, implying 7- 11% YoY growth, and US$16.0-20.0bn operating profit (consensus: US$17.5bn).</li><li>We believe Amazon’s structural YoY margin expansion trend is on track, aided by the continued improvement in cost to serve, as well as increase in revenue contribution from relatively high-margin ads and AWS businesses. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Amazon released (1 Nov HKT) 3Q24 results: revenue was US$158.9bn, up 11% YoY (3Q23: 13%), and was 2%/1% better than our estimates/Bloomberg consensus, while total operating profit was US$17.4bn, up 56% YoY, 18/16% better than our estimates/consensus, driven by an all-round OPM margin beat for all three business segments (North America, International, and AWS).Management guided for US$181.5bn-188.5bn revenue for 4Q24E, implying 7- 11% YoY growth, and US$16.0-20.0bn operating profit (consensus: US$17.5bn).We believe Amazon’s structural YoY margin expansion trend is on track, aided by the continued improvement in cost to serve, as well as increase in revenue contribution from relatively high-margin ads and AWS businesses. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Amazon (AMZN US) - Structural Margin Improvement Trend Intact

<ul><li>Amazon.com reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, presenting a mix of strong revenue growth and improvements in various operational domains, alongside ongoing heavy investments, particularly in technology and infrastructure, which could imply different trajectories in terms of immediate profitability and long term growth.</li><li>Revenues increased to $158.9 billion, marking an 11% rise year-over-year, which suggests solid growth albeit against the backdrop of global economic uncertainties.</li><li>This growth appears well-supported by an increase in Worldwide operating income by 56% year-over-year to $17.4 billion, notably the company's highest quarterly operating income on record.</li></ul>

Amazon.com reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, presenting a mix of strong revenue growth and improvements in various operational domains, alongside ongoing heavy investments, particularly in technology and infrastructure, which could imply different trajectories in terms of immediate profitability and long term growth.Revenues increased to $158.9 billion, marking an 11% rise year-over-year, which suggests solid growth albeit against the backdrop of global economic uncertainties.This growth appears well-supported by an increase in Worldwide operating income by 56% year-over-year to $17.4 billion, notably the company's highest quarterly operating income on record.

AMZN US - Amazon’s Secret Profit Playbook: How AWS, Prime, and Ads Are Transforming the Future!

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes & US$13bn Trade

Capping changes for the Select Sector indices will result in a round-trip trade of US$13bn. Constituent changes will be announced after market...

Brian Freitas

Amazon.com Inc - Amazon's AI Billions, Store Struggles, & The Risks No One Is Talking About!

Amazon.com reported a strong fourth quarter for 2024, with a revenue of $187.8 billion, reflecting a year-over year growth of 10%. Notably, this...

Baptista Research

Amazon 4Q'24 Update

Amazon faced ~900 Mn FX headwind in 4Q’24 which was ~700 mn higher than assumed.For the third consecutive quarters, AWS grew 19% YoY.

MBI Deep Dives

Amazon (AMZN US) - Structural Margin Improvement Trend Intact

Amazon released (1 Nov HKT) 3Q24 results: revenue was US$158.9bn, up 11% YoY (3Q23: 13%), and was 2%/1% better than our estimates/Bloomberg consensus

CMB International

AMZN US - Amazon’s Secret Profit Playbook: How AWS, Prime, and Ads Are Transforming the Future!

Amazon.com reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, presenting a mix of strong revenue growth and improvements in various...

Baptista Research

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