Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Mega-Cap growth names such as AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL, and META have picked up the slack as semiconductors (SMH, SOXX, NVDA, AVGO, etc.) are simply consolidating after getting extended.</li>
<li>This was a possibility we discussed in last week's Compass (6/25/24), which means we are not seeing any lasting rotation away from large-cap growth.</li>
<li>We remain bullish on all names listed (including the semiconductors), and we continue to recommend an overweight to large-cap growth (relative to value) as initially discussed in our 5/29/24 Compass</li>
</ul>


Mega-Cap growth names such as AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL, and META have picked up the slack as semiconductors (SMH, SOXX, NVDA, AVGO, etc.) are simply consolidating after getting extended.
This was a possibility we discussed in last week's Compass (6/25/24), which means we are not seeing any lasting rotation away from large-cap growth.
We remain bullish on all names listed (including the semiconductors), and we continue to recommend an overweight to large-cap growth (relative to value) as initially discussed in our 5/29/24 Compass


Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Amazon.com reported robust first quarter financial results in 2024, with revenue of $143.3 billion, a 13% increase year-over-year.</li><li>However, the result excludes the impact of foreign exchange rates, which caused an unfavorable impact that reduced revenue by roughly $700 million.</li><li>The company delivered higher than expected operating income of $15.3 billion, which is a 221% increase from last year, driven primarily by efficiency improvements and better customer experiences.</li></ul>

Amazon.com reported robust first quarter financial results in 2024, with revenue of $143.3 billion, a 13% increase year-over-year.However, the result excludes the impact of foreign exchange rates, which caused an unfavorable impact that reduced revenue by roughly $700 million.The company delivered higher than expected operating income of $15.3 billion, which is a 221% increase from last year, driven primarily by efficiency improvements and better customer experiences.

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives, MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives

MBI is the abbreviation for “Mostly Borrowed Ideas”. Why “Mostly Borrowed Ideas?” As a generalist, I do not have a background in any particular sector. I enjoy navigating across industries, businesses, and countries to learn, understand, and connect the dots. In any case, most ideas and innovations are incremental in nature. Very few of us are smart enough to come up with truly original or groundbreaking ideas. I am Abdullah Al-Rezwan. I was born and brought up in Bangladesh. I went to University of Dhaka for my undergrad and majored in Finance. After working three and half years in Equity Research (Sell-side) covering Financial Sector in Bangladesh, I left Bangladesh to pursue my MBA in the US. I graduated within top 10% of the class from Cornell University's two-year MBA program and worked on the buy-side following my graduation. During my time at Cornell, I won two stock pitch competitions and also became finalists in four other competitions. I thoroughly enjoyed my stint as a generalist in the US large cap team at Madison Investments and covered a wide range of companies from UnitedHealth to Amazon and Boeing before US immigration reality paused my career in investment management. As my work authorization expired, I moved to Canada in January, 2021. Then in early 2022, I was able to return to the US.

<ul><li>Now that Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon all reported their quarters, we now have better context to how their quarters went.</li><li>So, while I will mostly discuss Amazon's earnings in this update, I will briefly touch on some broader themes as well.</li><li>Overall revenue was slightly below the high end of Amazon's guidance.</li></ul>

Now that Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon all reported their quarters, we now have better context to how their quarters went.So, while I will mostly discuss Amazon's earnings in this update, I will briefly touch on some broader themes as well.Overall revenue was slightly below the high end of Amazon's guidance.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walgreens-boots-alliance-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1118:1" rel="noopener">Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA US)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dow-jones-industrial-average" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22887:1" rel="noopener">Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)</a> at the close on 23 February.</li>
<li>Passives will need to sell a lot of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walmart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11134:1" rel="noopener">Walmart (WMT US)</a> following the 3:1 stock split and buy a lot of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a>. </li>
<li>Given the ad hoc nature of the rebalances and the short timeline between announcement and implementation, the stocks could move over the rest of the week.</li>
</ul>



Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) will replace Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA US) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX) at the close on 23 February.
Passives will need to sell a lot of Walmart (WMT US) following the 3:1 stock split and buy a lot of Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US). 
Given the ad hoc nature of the rebalances and the short timeline between announcement and implementation, the stocks could move over the rest of the week.


Dow Jones Industrials (INDU) Index Rebalance: Amazon (AMZN) Replaces Walgreen Boots (WBA)

Asia Consumer Research, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Asia Consumer Research

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>'s smartphone shipments to India surged in Q2 2024, reclaiming the top spot, while Samsung slipped to third.</li>
<li>Consumer discretionary sales, including smartphones, were weak during the quarter due to elections, subdued demand, and extreme weather.</li>
<li>The upcoming festive season is crucial for sales, with customers anticipating new launches and better bargains. 5G device upgrades continue to drive growth in 2024.</li>
</ul>



Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)'s smartphone shipments to India surged in Q2 2024, reclaiming the top spot, while Samsung slipped to third.
Consumer discretionary sales, including smartphones, were weak during the quarter due to elections, subdued demand, and extreme weather.
The upcoming festive season is crucial for sales, with customers anticipating new launches and better bargains. 5G device upgrades continue to drive growth in 2024.


Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Tops India Smartphone Market; Samsung Falls to Third

United States

Makemytrip Ltd. offers travel services over the Internet.  The Company operates websites that allow travelers to research and plan trips and book airline tickets, hotels, packages, rail tickets, bus tickets, and rental cars. Makemytrip also offers access to travel insurance.

The RealReal, Inc. owns and operates a members-only consignment marketplace for luxury goods. The Company specializes in curating and authenticating a full range of previously owned luxury products such as clothing, shoes, accessories, and jewelry that are sold on consignment. The RealReal markets its products and services throughout the United States.

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

VMware, Inc. provides virtualization solutions from the desktop to the data center. The Company's solution products addresses a range of IT problems, which includes cost and operational inefficiencies, business continuity, software lifecycle management and desktop management.

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

Broadcom Inc. designs, develops, and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The Company offers storage adapters, controllers, networking processors, motion control encoders, and optical sensors, as well as infrastructure and security software to modernize, optimize, and secure the most complex hybrid environments. Broadcom serves customers worldwide.

Cisco Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells Internet Protocol (IP)-based networking and other products related to the communications and information technology (IT) industry and provide services associated with these products and their use. The Company provides products for transporting data, voice, and video within buildings, across campuses, and globally.

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) provides computer solutions through the use of advanced information technology. The Company's solutions include technologies, systems, products, services, software, and financing. IBM offers its products through its global sales and distribution organization, as well as through a variety of third party distributors and resellers.

Besttone Holdings Co Ltd is involved in hotel management, catering and travel arrangement.  The Company is based in China.

Canon Inc. is a professional and consumer imaging solutions company and patent-holder of digital imaging technologies. The Company's products include networked multifunction devices, digital and analog copiers, computer peripherals, facsimile machines, image filing systems, camcorders, cameras and lenses, semiconductor, and broadcast and medical equipment.

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

Baidu, Inc. operates an Internet search engine. The Company offers algorithmic search, enterprise search, news, MP3, and image searches, voice assistance, online storage, and navigation services. Baidu serves clients globally.

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Infosys Limited provides IT consulting and software services, including e-business, program management and supply chain solutions. The Group's services include application development, product co-development, and system implementation and system engineering. Infosys targets businesses specializing in the insurance, banking, telecommunication and manufacturing sectors.

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. offers assembly and testing services. The Company provides outsourced assembly, semiconductor testing, semiconductor packaging, and other related services. ASE Technology Holding operates in Taiwan.

Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd. provides electronic manufacturing services for computers, communications, and consumer electronic products.  The Company's business operations include desktop and notebook PC assembly, connector production, cable assembly, PCB assembly, handset manufacturing, networking equipment, and other consumer electronic devices manufacturing.

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)

Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD

Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF as discussed 5/29/24; Downgrading Materials $XLB to Underweight; Buy/Stay Long Software Stocks $IGV $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Amazon.com Inc.: Prime

Amazon.com reported robust first quarter financial results in 2024, with revenue of $143.3 billion, a 13% increase year-over-year. However, the...

Baptista Research

Amazon 1Q'24 Update

Now that Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon all reported their quarters, we now have better context to how their quarters went.

MBI Deep Dives

Dow Jones Industrials (INDU) Index Rebalance: Amazon (AMZN) Replaces Walgreen Boots (WBA)

Amazon replaces Walgreen Boots in the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the close on 23 February following Walmart's stock split. There will be over...

Brian Freitas

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Tops India Smartphone Market; Samsung Falls to Third

Xiaomi makes a strong comeback as the leading player in the Indian smartphone market after a 6-quarter hiatus due to regulatory and other...

Devi Subhakesan

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