Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> correction has restarted this week, after a brief 1-week bounce. </li>
<li>The index may continue to downtrend for another 1-2 weeks, then a reversal should come and the uptrend should restart.</li>
<li>Look at the price support area in the 17500-17000 range, because that is where my model indicates the highest chance of LONG reversal.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index correction has restarted this week, after a brief 1-week bounce. 
The index may continue to downtrend for another 1-2 weeks, then a reversal should come and the uptrend should restart.
Look at the price support area in the 17500-17000 range, because that is where my model indicates the highest chance of LONG reversal.


EQD | Is the HSI Correction Going to Continue? (Yes, For 1-2 Weeks)

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> has been rallying for 3 weeks but then last week the rise was halted and the index gave up a good chunk of the gains.</li>
<li>It seems the index has become quite volatile but this week it could go up again, or otherwise next week, <strong>the reversal is imminent given its oversold condition.</strong>
</li>
<li>It's hard to predict if the rally can continue after the bounce, the index seems a bit long-term overbought, albeit short-term oversold. A contradiction, but that is the situation now.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index has been rallying for 3 weeks but then last week the rise was halted and the index gave up a good chunk of the gains.
It seems the index has become quite volatile but this week it could go up again, or otherwise next week, the reversal is imminent given its oversold condition.

It's hard to predict if the rally can continue after the bounce, the index seems a bit long-term overbought, albeit short-term oversold. A contradiction, but that is the situation now.


EQD | Hang Seng Down: How Low Can the Pullback Go?

<ul>
<li>If the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> closes the month of April up (i.e. above 16541.42), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-nikkei-s-downtrend-could-continue-in-may-but-the-bottom-is-near" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our previous forecast</a> will change (read the insight below for the detailed analysis).</li>
<li>The index performed an impressive bounce from the support levels (16050) we indicated in our previous insight, it is very overbought (WEEKLY model) and may close April up.</li>
<li>A continuation of the WEEKLY uptrend is in doubt, this week, while the MONTHLY situation is more complex. </li>
</ul>


If the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) closes the month of April up (i.e. above 16541.42), our previous forecast will change (read the insight below for the detailed analysis).
The index performed an impressive bounce from the support levels (16050) we indicated in our previous insight, it is very overbought (WEEKLY model) and may close April up.
A continuation of the WEEKLY uptrend is in doubt, this week, while the MONTHLY situation is more complex. 


EQD | HSI Closing April Up Changes Our Forecast!

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI INDEX</a> is currently down for the 2nd week in a row and it is quite oversold on a WEEKLY basis.</li>
<li>A temporary reversal could come as soon as this week or next week, but we don't think this will mark a restart of the previous rally.</li>
<li>Look at the 16250-16050 area to go LONG, this is the area where the index most likely will print a temporary bottom.</li>
</ul>


The HSI INDEX is currently down for the 2nd week in a row and it is quite oversold on a WEEKLY basis.
A temporary reversal could come as soon as this week or next week, but we don't think this will mark a restart of the previous rally.
Look at the 16250-16050 area to go LONG, this is the area where the index most likely will print a temporary bottom.


EQD | Hang Seng Down: Upcoming Bounce May Not Mean Rally Continuation

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> has been rising for 2 weeks but the uptrend seems slow and weak. The rally may have stalled, a pullback may be behind the corner.</li>
<li>Based on our MONTHLY seasonal studies for the HSI, the index has a extremely high chance to close April in negative territory.</li>
<li>You can go SHORT now, or during this coming week if the index keeps rising, target the 17000 to 17300 areas.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index has been rising for 2 weeks but the uptrend seems slow and weak. The rally may have stalled, a pullback may be behind the corner.
Based on our MONTHLY seasonal studies for the HSI, the index has a extremely high chance to close April in negative territory.
You can go SHORT now, or during this coming week if the index keeps rising, target the 17000 to 17300 areas.


EQD | HSI Closed the Week Modestly Up: A Pullback Is Possible Next Week

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

EQD | Is the HSI Correction Going to Continue? (Yes, For 1-2 Weeks)

The HSI correction has resumed, the downtrend could continue for 1-2 more weeks before the next LONG reversal restarts the uptrend. Watch for...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Hang Seng Down: How Low Can the Pullback Go?

The Hang Seng Index rallied hjard for 3 weeks, then last week performed a significant pullback. Strong potential for a bounce this week or the...

Nico Rosti

EQD | HSI Closing April Up Changes Our Forecast!

The HSI performed a large rally last week and it is now OVERBOUGHT. It will probably close April up and this changes the trend forecast we had...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Hang Seng Down: Upcoming Bounce May Not Mean Rally Continuation

The HSI Index is down for the 2nd week in a row, short-term oversold, a temporary reversal could come soon but it's not a restart of the previous...

Nico Rosti

EQD | HSI Closed the Week Modestly Up: A Pullback Is Possible Next Week

The Hang Seng Index latest uptrend moves appear slow and weak, we see a pullback ahead. Seasonal studies suggest a high chance of negative April...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Is the HSI Correction Going to Continue? (Yes, For 1-2 Weeks)

​The HSI correction has resumed, the downtrend could continue for 1-2 more weeks before the next LONG reversal restarts the uptrend. Watch for...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Hang Seng Down: How Low Can the Pullback Go?

​The Hang Seng Index rallied hjard for 3 weeks, then last week performed a significant pullback. Strong potential for a bounce this week or the...

Nico Rosti

EQD | HSI Closing April Up Changes Our Forecast!

The HSI performed a large rally last week and it is now OVERBOUGHT. It will probably close April up and this changes the trend forecast we had...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Hang Seng Down: Upcoming Bounce May Not Mean Rally Continuation

​The HSI Index is down for the 2nd week in a row, short-term oversold, a temporary reversal could come soon but it's not a restart of the previous...

Nico Rosti

EQD | HSI Closed the Week Modestly Up: A Pullback Is Possible Next Week

​The Hang Seng Index latest uptrend moves appear slow and weak, we see a pullback ahead. Seasonal studies suggest a high chance of negative April...

Nico Rosti

The HSI correction has resumed, the downtrend could continue for 1-2 more weeks before the next LONG reversal restarts the uptrend. Watch for...

The Hang Seng Index rallied hjard for 3 weeks, then last week performed a significant pullback. Strong potential for a bounce this week or the...

The HSI Index is down for the 2nd week in a row, short-term oversold, a temporary reversal could come soon but it's not a restart of the previous...

The Hang Seng Index latest uptrend moves appear slow and weak, we see a pullback ahead. Seasonal studies suggest a high chance of negative April...