Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> keeps rising steadily, while the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> rebalances became effective on December 19th, after the Close.</li>
<li>According to our model <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> has plenty of room to rise higher, beyond 4.4k, on this leg, but after that point it could make a small pullback.</li>
<li>The commodity is quite overbought, but based on the behavior witnessed in the past when the current WEEKLY trend pattern was encountered, it could rise to 4.6k in 6-8 weeks.</li>
</ul>



Gold (GOLD COMDTY) keeps rising steadily, while the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) rebalances became effective on December 19th, after the Close.
According to our model Gold (GOLD COMDTY) has plenty of room to rise higher, beyond 4.4k, on this leg, but after that point it could make a small pullback.
The commodity is quite overbought, but based on the behavior witnessed in the past when the current WEEKLY trend pattern was encountered, it could rise to 4.6k in 6-8 weeks.


Tactical View: Gold Eyes 4,600 As GDX ETF Rebalances

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> had a great run this year, since Trump's Liberation Day in April 2025, but seems to be stalling as of lately. </li>
<li>The index started correcting this week, after a 3-week rally, the interest rate decision by the BOJ this Friday (most likely a hike) could increase volatility.</li>
<li>This insight will try to define the best entry zones in case the index falls further in the next few days, weeks. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) had a great run this year, since Trump's Liberation Day in April 2025, but seems to be stalling as of lately. 
The index started correcting this week, after a 3-week rally, the interest rate decision by the BOJ this Friday (most likely a hike) could increase volatility.
This insight will try to define the best entry zones in case the index falls further in the next few days, weeks. 


Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) Outlook Ahead of Friday's BOJ Rate Decision

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> is in the middle of a very mild correction, the index is now in its 3rd week down but the pullback has been very minimal.</li>
<li>We think this is the ideal set up to add LONG NIFTY 50 positions: mild pullback coupled with a high probability of reversal on our quantitative TIME MODEL.  </li>
<li>The proposed tactical LONG trade will be valid for this entire week, if the index stays below last week's Close.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) is in the middle of a very mild correction, the index is now in its 3rd week down but the pullback has been very minimal.
We think this is the ideal set up to add LONG NIFTY 50 positions: mild pullback coupled with a high probability of reversal on our quantitative TIME MODEL.  
The proposed tactical LONG trade will be valid for this entire week, if the index stays below last week's Close.


NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook: A Buy Opportunity

BYD Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company also researches, develops, manufactures and sells batteries, which are applied on mobile phones, cordless phones, power tools and other kinds of portable electronic devices.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> has been downtrending for a while, a speculative LONG positioning starts to become attractive for some, but according to our model the short-term upside is limited.</li>
<li>The stock is pulling back this week, second consecutive week down, this insight will try to identify price zones where to buy the stock and where to exit / hedge.</li>
<li>BYD could be held past our suggested profit target at 101.8 (in case the next bear rally it's not just a bear-rally), but time-wise it's a 2 weeks rally, tops.</li>
</ul>



BYD (1211 HK) has been downtrending for a while, a speculative LONG positioning starts to become attractive for some, but according to our model the short-term upside is limited.
The stock is pulling back this week, second consecutive week down, this insight will try to identify price zones where to buy the stock and where to exit / hedge.
BYD could be held past our suggested profit target at 101.8 (in case the next bear rally it's not just a bear-rally), but time-wise it's a 2 weeks rally, tops.


BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Time To Go LONG? Not Yet.

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

<ul>
<li>Back on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/samsung-electronics-005930-ks-1-7-t-krw-block-deal-sale-where-to-buy-the-inevitable-pullback" target="_blank" rel="noopener">October 24th we forecasted</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>'s pullback. Samsung pulled back 1 week after, ended in the support BUY zone we predicted and rallied higher from there.</li>
<li>Now, fast-forward to December 8th, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> is getting very close to the previous top at 112,400. Our model says the stock is overbought. </li>
<li>Double top? Not necessarily, but in the short-term the stock is about to pullback again. Our analysis tries to identify when the pullback can happen and where to enter LONG.
</li>
</ul>


Back on October 24th we forecastedSamsung Electronics (005930 KS)'s pullback. Samsung pulled back 1 week after, ended in the support BUY zone we predicted and rallied higher from there.
Now, fast-forward to December 8th, Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) is getting very close to the previous top at 112,400. Our model says the stock is overbought. 
Double top? Not necessarily, but in the short-term the stock is about to pullback again. Our analysis tries to identify when the pullback can happen and where to enter LONG.



Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook: The Stock Is OVERBOUGHT

Quantitative Researcher, Algorithmic Trader and former Portfolio Manager at Capital Theory Investment Management, LLC (Austin, TX - USA). 

I specialize in systematic, short-term forecasting for US and Pan-Asian Stocks and Indexes. My methodology is centered on proprietary quantitative modeling (statistical study of trend persistence and mean reversion effects), leveraging probabilistic Bayesian models to predict tactical shifts over a 1-day to few-week horizon.

All models are explicitly human-built—no AI/machine learning—to eliminate black-box risk. This intensive, non-automated approach ensures that every Tactical Market Call is supported by a clear, explainable rationale.

Nico Rosti
Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)
• MRM Research

Tactical View: Gold Eyes 4,600 As GDX ETF Rebalances

While the GDX ETF completed its rebalance, Gold continued to rise steadily nearly touching 4.4k. Our model says 'overbought, but could rise to...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) Outlook Ahead of Friday's BOJ Rate Decision

The Nikkei 225 uptrend has been stalling recently. A potential BOJ interest rate hike this Friday could increase volatility. Check our model...

Nico Rosti

NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook: A Buy Opportunity

The NIFTY Index is experiencing a mild correction, presenting an ideal opportunity to add LONG NIFTY 50 positions with a high probability of...

Nico Rosti

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Time To Go LONG? Not Yet.

BYD (1211 HK) downtrend may be turning attractive for some as a speculative LONG position, but the short-term upside is limited according to our...

Nico Rosti

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook: The Stock Is OVERBOUGHT

Samsung Electronics (005930KS): we indicated the stock was overbought 2 weeks ago, this week the stock did not move much, then on Monday started to...

Nico Rosti

Tactical View: Gold Eyes 4,600 As GDX ETF Rebalances

​While the GDX ETF completed its rebalance, Gold continued to rise steadily nearly touching 4.4k. Our model says 'overbought, but could rise to...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) Outlook Ahead of Friday's BOJ Rate Decision

​The Nikkei 225 uptrend has been stalling recently. A potential BOJ interest rate hike this Friday could increase volatility. Check our model...

Nico Rosti

NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook: A Buy Opportunity

​The NIFTY Index is experiencing a mild correction, presenting an ideal opportunity to add LONG NIFTY 50 positions with a high probability of...

Nico Rosti

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Time To Go LONG? Not Yet.

​BYD (1211 HK) downtrend may be turning attractive for some as a speculative LONG position, but the short-term upside is limited according to our...

Nico Rosti

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook: The Stock Is OVERBOUGHT

Samsung Electronics (005930KS): we indicated the stock was overbought 2 weeks ago, this week the stock did not move much, then on Monday started to...

Nico Rosti

While the GDX ETF completed its rebalance, Gold continued to rise steadily nearly touching 4.4k. Our model says 'overbought, but could rise to...

The Nikkei 225 uptrend has been stalling recently. A potential BOJ interest rate hike this Friday could increase volatility. Check our model...

The NIFTY Index is experiencing a mild correction, presenting an ideal opportunity to add LONG NIFTY 50 positions with a high probability of...

BYD (1211 HK) downtrend may be turning attractive for some as a speculative LONG position, but the short-term upside is limited according to our...