Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> has been rallying up without stop for the past 13 weeks (only pause was a 1 week pullback at the end of February).</li>
<li>The commodity looks overbought WEEKLY according to our tactical model, there is a chance that it will pullback this week or the next (although it could rally for longer...).</li>
<li>Several players are buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> and we do not see any sharp pullback on the horizon, obviously, any pullback is a BUY opportunity. We'll discuss where to buy.</li>
</ul>



Gold (GOLD COMDTY) has been rallying up without stop for the past 13 weeks (only pause was a 1 week pullback at the end of February).
The commodity looks overbought WEEKLY according to our tactical model, there is a chance that it will pullback this week or the next (although it could rally for longer...).
Several players are buying Gold (GOLD COMDTY) and we do not see any sharp pullback on the horizon, obviously, any pullback is a BUY opportunity. We'll discuss where to buy.


Gold's Tactical Outlook and Profit Targets: Currently Peaking, But Pullback Is a Buy Opportunity

BYD Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company also researches, develops, manufactures and sells batteries, which are applied on mobile phones, cordless phones, power tools and other kinds of portable electronic devices.

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> posted a record 2024 net profit of 40.25B yuan ($5.55B) as revenue surged 29% to 777B yuan ($107.2B), beating analyst forecasts of $5.47B and $105.6B. </li>
<li>Notably, BYD's revenue topped Tesla's $97.7B reported on Jan. 30. The Chinese automaker is now among the biggest in the world.   </li>
<li>On March 4, our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/byd-1211-hk-placement-tactical-buy-opportunity-in-key-support-zone" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BYD's insight</a>correctly suggested to BUY the stock below 340 (now trading above 400). This insight will try to determine profit targets for the current rally.</li>
</ul>



BYD (1211 HK) posted a record 2024 net profit of 40.25B yuan ($5.55B) as revenue surged 29% to 777B yuan ($107.2B), beating analyst forecasts of $5.47B and $105.6B. 
Notably, BYD's revenue topped Tesla's $97.7B reported on Jan. 30. The Chinese automaker is now among the biggest in the world.   
On March 4, our BYD's insightcorrectly suggested to BUY the stock below 340 (now trading above 400). This insight will try to determine profit targets for the current rally.


BYD (1211 HK) Profit Targets After Record-Breaking Earnings

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has been in a paralyzed trend since August 2024. Then at the end of February 2025 it started to correct.</li>
<li>As explained by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> the index rebalance on March 5th, 2025 was a bit unexpected and minimal in terms of changes.</li>
<li>The index bottomed 1 week after the March 2025 Nikkei 225 Average Review, and then started a rally, quite modest for now which could be signaling short-term tactical weakness.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has been in a paralyzed trend since August 2024. Then at the end of February 2025 it started to correct.
As explained by Travis Lundy and Brian Freitas the index rebalance on March 5th, 2025 was a bit unexpected and minimal in terms of changes.
The index bottomed 1 week after the March 2025 Nikkei 225 Average Review, and then started a rally, quite modest for now which could be signaling short-term tactical weakness.


Nikkei 225 Outlook After the Mar25 Rebalance

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

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<li>
Short selling in all stocks in South Korea will resume from 31 March 2025. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)</a> is approaching the overboughtarea according to our models.</li>
<li>If the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> can rise for another week, it would be perfectly ripe for a large, high probability SHORT trade.</li>
<li>The probability of WEEKLY reversal in the range between the last Close (355) and the 363 resistance limit is between 50% and 75%, pretty high.</li>
</ul>



Short selling in all stocks in South Korea will resume from 31 March 2025. The KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY) is approaching the overboughtarea according to our models.
If the KOSPI 200 can rise for another week, it would be perfectly ripe for a large, high probability SHORT trade.
The probability of WEEKLY reversal in the range between the last Close (355) and the 363 resistance limit is between 50% and 75%, pretty high.


Short Selling Resumes in Korea Just as the KOSPI 200 Braces for Pullback (Perfect Timing!)

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> has reached 22939 on Wednesday, our model indicates that if the index reaches the 23320 target, there would be a 75% probability of pullback.</li>
<li>From the perspective of our time model, the index could continue to rise for at least 1 more week.</li>
<li>We conclude that it's possible that the index keeps rallying 1 more week towards 23320, then a pullback could start - for now the index seems stuck in its downtrend.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) has reached 22939 on Wednesday, our model indicates that if the index reaches the 23320 target, there would be a 75% probability of pullback.
From the perspective of our time model, the index could continue to rise for at least 1 more week.
We conclude that it's possible that the index keeps rallying 1 more week towards 23320, then a pullback could start - for now the index seems stuck in its downtrend.


NIFTY Tactical Outlook: Profit Target Is About To Be Reached, What's Next?

Quantitative Researcher, Algorithmic Trader and former Portfolio Manager at Capital Theory Investment Management, LLC, a CTA based in Austin, Texas (USA), where I developed and ran automated algorithmic trading strategies for the US Futures and Options markets. 

My work is focused on the statistical study of the "persistence of trends" and "mean reversion" effects in global Equities, Futures, Indexes, Bonds and FX Spot markets. I make extensive use of probabilistic Bayesian models to predict short-term (1 day to few weeks) trend reversals.

I do not use any AI/machine learning processes in my work: all models and algorithms are built by humans. This approach is very labour-intensive but produces forecasts that have a clearly understandable/explainable rationale (no black-boxes).

Nico Rosti
Quantitative Researcher
• MRM Research

Gold's Tactical Outlook and Profit Targets: Currently Peaking, But Pullback Is a Buy Opportunity

GOLD has been rallying relentless, but it may be (temporarily) peaking, according to our Gold quantitative tactical model. We see pullbacks to the...

Nico Rosti

BYD (1211 HK) Profit Targets After Record-Breaking Earnings

BYD (1211 HK) posted record profits outperforming Tesla in revenue, solidifying its position as a global automotive giant. This insight discusses...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei 225 Outlook After the Mar25 Rebalance

The March 25 Index rebalance is approaching, the index appears oversold according to our models, this insight is quite timely in predicting a...

Nico Rosti

Short Selling Resumes in Korea Just as the KOSPI 200 Braces for Pullback (Perfect Timing!)

Short selling in South Korean stocks will resume on March 31, 2025 and the KOSPI 200 is in overbought territory according to our models, a very...

Nico Rosti

NIFTY Tactical Outlook: Profit Target Is About To Be Reached, What's Next?

The NIFTY Index has rallied and reached 22939 this week, there is a 75% chance of pullback if it reaches 23320. We see potential for 1 more week...

Nico Rosti

Gold's Tactical Outlook and Profit Targets: Currently Peaking, But Pullback Is a Buy Opportunity

​GOLD has been rallying relentless, but it may be (temporarily) peaking, according to our Gold quantitative tactical model. We see pullbacks to the...

Nico Rosti

BYD (1211 HK) Profit Targets After Record-Breaking Earnings

​BYD (1211 HK) posted record profits outperforming Tesla in revenue, solidifying its position as a global automotive giant. This insight discusses...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei 225 Outlook After the Mar25 Rebalance

The March 25 Index rebalance is approaching, the index appears oversold according to our models, this insight is quite timely in predicting a...

Nico Rosti

Short Selling Resumes in Korea Just as the KOSPI 200 Braces for Pullback (Perfect Timing!)

​Short selling in South Korean stocks will resume on March 31, 2025 and the KOSPI 200 is in overbought territory according to our models, a very...

Nico Rosti

NIFTY Tactical Outlook: Profit Target Is About To Be Reached, What's Next?

​The NIFTY Index has rallied and reached 22939 this week, there is a 75% chance of pullback if it reaches 23320. We see potential for 1 more week...

Nico Rosti

GOLD has been rallying relentless, but it may be (temporarily) peaking, according to our Gold quantitative tactical model. We see pullbacks to the...

BYD (1211 HK) posted record profits outperforming Tesla in revenue, solidifying its position as a global automotive giant. This insight discusses...

Short selling in South Korean stocks will resume on March 31, 2025 and the KOSPI 200 is in overbought territory according to our models, a very...

The NIFTY Index has rallied and reached 22939 this week, there is a 75% chance of pullback if it reaches 23320. We see potential for 1 more week...