Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

China Mobile Limited provides telecommunication services. The Company offers wireline voice, broadband, roaming, and other related services. China Mobile serves customers in Hong Kong.

<ul>
<li>On April 22, 2025, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> reported its Q1 2025 financial results, revenues substantially unchanged, but increase in net income and subscriber growth indicates resilience in its operations. </li>
<li>The initial market reaction suggests mild disappointment, the stock retreated to a low &lt;80 intra-week, then closed the week down at 80.85.</li>
<li>Our price model shows an oversold state, while the time model indicates there is room for another week down, possibly a buy-the-dip opportunity (3 weeks down should be the limit). </li>
</ul>


On April 22, 2025, China Mobile (941 HK) reported its Q1 2025 financial results, revenues substantially unchanged, but increase in net income and subscriber growth indicates resilience in its operations. 
The initial market reaction suggests mild disappointment, the stock retreated to a low &lt;80 intra-week, then closed the week down at 80.85.
Our price model shows an oversold state, while the time model indicates there is room for another week down, possibly a buy-the-dip opportunity (3 weeks down should be the limit). 


China Mobile (941 HK) Tactical Outlook Following Q1 2025 Results

BYD Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company also researches, develops, manufactures and sells batteries, which are applied on mobile phones, cordless phones, power tools and other kinds of portable electronic devices.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> will release its Q1 2025 results on April 25. The company has issued a positive profit alert, projecting net income around RMB 8.5 - 10 billion.</li>
<li>Expected earnings per share ranging from RMB 2.91 to RMB 3.42, up from RMB 1.57 in the same period last year.</li>
<li>
Our model currently does not indicate the stock is overbought, but a surprise pullback is always possible around earnings releases, so we will discuss also support/buy zones.</li>
</ul>



BYD (1211 HK) will release its Q1 2025 results on April 25. The company has issued a positive profit alert, projecting net income around RMB 8.5 - 10 billion.
Expected earnings per share ranging from RMB 2.91 to RMB 3.42, up from RMB 1.57 in the same period last year.

Our model currently does not indicate the stock is overbought, but a surprise pullback is always possible around earnings releases, so we will discuss also support/buy zones.


BYD (1211 HK) Positioning Ahead of Q1 2025 Results

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

<ul>
<li>In our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hang-seng-index-faf-calculation-change-buy-the-dip" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous insight</a> we highlighted a buy-the-dip opportunity in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI INDEX</a> in the HSI Index during the late-March pullback. However, Trump’s tariff announcement dramatically shifted the outlook.</li>
<li>Following a sharp drop to 19260, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> staged a fierce rally to 21000—but momentum has since stalled.</li>
<li>The index has rallied for three straight weeks (including this one), but remains below key resistance levels. Our model signals weakness, and a likely pullback ahead.
</li>
</ul>


In our previous insight we highlighted a buy-the-dip opportunity in the HSI INDEX in the HSI Index during the late-March pullback. However, Trump’s tariff announcement dramatically shifted the outlook.
Following a sharp drop to 19260, the Hang Seng Index staged a fierce rally to 21000—but momentum has since stalled.
The index has rallied for three straight weeks (including this one), but remains below key resistance levels. Our model signals weakness, and a likely pullback ahead.



HSI Tactical Outlook: Fading Momentum Signals Pullback Risk

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>South Korea is likely to be put on a watch list for development market status in the MSCI index in the near future, the country's financial regulator said Monday.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> at the moment shows a strange divergence between the price and the time model, based on our quantitative analysis: one "underbought", the other overbought.
</li>
<li>Our interpretation: the trend has exhausted its time window to rally (overbought) and failed to reach any significative resistance targets (=weakness), hence we could see a sell-off, this week.
</li>
</ul>


South Korea is likely to be put on a watch list for development market status in the MSCI index in the near future, the country's financial regulator said Monday.
The KOSPI 200 INDEX at the moment shows a strange divergence between the price and the time model, based on our quantitative analysis: one "underbought", the other overbought.

Our interpretation: the trend has exhausted its time window to rally (overbought) and failed to reach any significative resistance targets (=weakness), hence we could see a sell-off, this week.



KOSPI 200 Short Term Tactical Outlook Amid Rumors of Korea Joining the MSCI DM Watchlist

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

<ul>
<li>The strong rebound from the crash low signals resilience in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>, and notably, the index appears to be staging a short-term breakout from its recent downtrend.
</li>
<li>Is this the start of a rally? It's hard to say, given the current economic uncertainty—however, our model suggests the index could extend its gains for another week.</li>
<li>The rally should be limited, a good profit target according to our model is between 24039 and 24496.
</li>
</ul>


The strong rebound from the crash low signals resilience in the NIFTY Index, and notably, the index appears to be staging a short-term breakout from its recent downtrend.

Is this the start of a rally? It's hard to say, given the current economic uncertainty—however, our model suggests the index could extend its gains for another week.
The rally should be limited, a good profit target according to our model is between 24039 and 24496.



NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook (Post-Easter Targets)

Quantitative Researcher, Algorithmic Trader and former Portfolio Manager at Capital Theory Investment Management, LLC, a CTA based in Austin, Texas (USA), where I developed and ran automated algorithmic trading strategies for the US Futures and Options markets. 

My work is focused on the statistical study of the "persistence of trends" and "mean reversion" effects in global Equities, Futures, Indexes, Bonds and FX Spot markets. I make extensive use of probabilistic Bayesian models to predict short-term (1 day to few weeks) trend reversals.

I do not use any AI/machine learning processes in my work: all models and algorithms are built by humans. This approach is very labour-intensive but produces forecasts that have a clearly understandable/explainable rationale (no black-boxes).

Nico Rosti
Quantitative Researcher
• MRM Research

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While South Korea may be added to MSCI’s watchlist for Developed Market status, our model's short-term tactical outlook for the KOSPI 200 suggests...

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China Mobile (941 HK) Q1 2025 earnings were positive but investors reacted with mild disappointment. This pullback could be a tactical buy-the-dip...

BYD (1211 HK) is about to release Q1 2025 results on April 25. Expected results are projected to be good, the stock is not overbought according to...

The NIFTY Index rallied and performed a potential short-term breakout, but global uncertainty remains. Our model suggests gains could continue for...