Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

The S&P/ASX 200 measures the performance of the 200 largest index-eligible stocks listed on the ASX by float-adjusted market capitalization. Representative liquid and tradable, it is widely considered Australia's preeminent benchmark index. The index is float-adjusted. The index was launched in April 2000.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> has suffered a continuous sell-off for the past 3 weeks. The index is deeply oversold, our model predicts an imminent reversal.</li>
<li>The reversal could lift the index to the 8091-8208 price area, but the index may start to fall again after that.</li>
<li>As posted by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> there has been 7 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> (index rebalance), read his insight for further details on this.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has suffered a continuous sell-off for the past 3 weeks. The index is deeply oversold, our model predicts an imminent reversal.
The reversal could lift the index to the 8091-8208 price area, but the index may start to fall again after that.
As posted by Brian Freitas there has been 7 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (index rebalance), read his insight for further details on this.


The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI INDEX</a> has been defying gravity, recently. It is up more than 30% from its most recent low.</li>
<li>In our previous, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hsi-to-find-strong-support-between-18-8k-and-17-5k-long-term-uptrend-set-to-restart" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jan. 11th insight</a> we highlighted very precisely the support zone (18.8k-17.5k) from where the index was poised to resume its rally (the bottom was printed at 18671).</li>
<li>
Our models are currently indicating a very overbought condition. Leveraging the information relayed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/gaudenz-schneider" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:66501" rel="noopener">Gaudenz Schneider</a> in a recent insight, we think a "HSI PUT" could make sense here. </li>
</ul>


The HSI INDEX has been defying gravity, recently. It is up more than 30% from its most recent low.
In our previous, Jan. 11th insight we highlighted very precisely the support zone (18.8k-17.5k) from where the index was poised to resume its rally (the bottom was printed at 18671).

Our models are currently indicating a very overbought condition. Leveraging the information relayed by Gaudenz Schneider in a recent insight, we think a "HSI PUT" could make sense here. 


The HSI PUT: Hedging Strategies for an Overextended Rally

Meta Platforms (Facebook) / Equity Derivatives

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

<ul>
<li>All but one of the Magnificent 7 stocks have seen their rallies collapse, breaking their long-term uptrends. The lone exception? <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta Platforms (META US).</a>
</li>
<li>Mark Zuckerberg's company is the only Magnificent 7 stock that has pulled back yet may still be holding its uptrend intact.</li>
<li>Our model has identified a tactical BUY opportunity in the support price area around 640. Keep reading for the details... </li>
</ul>


All but one of the Magnificent 7 stocks have seen their rallies collapse, breaking their long-term uptrends. The lone exception? Meta Platforms (META US).

Mark Zuckerberg's company is the only Magnificent 7 stock that has pulled back yet may still be holding its uptrend intact.
Our model has identified a tactical BUY opportunity in the support price area around 640. Keep reading for the details... 


META: The Last of the Mohicans Standing - A Buy Opportunity

BYD Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company also researches, develops, manufactures and sells batteries, which are applied on mobile phones, cordless phones, power tools and other kinds of portable electronic devices.

<ul>
<li>As recently written by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sumeet-singh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4" rel="noopener">Sumeet Singh</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> is placing new shares on the market at at a price range of HK$333-345/share.</li>
<li>The stock today dropped to roughly 340 and it's oversold WEEKLY according to our models. Buying here, at this price, should bear fruit in coming weeks. More details below.</li>
<li>We cannot yet predict the profit targets because our model needs the WEEKLY Close for this week, to do that. We will update this information when it becomes available.</li>
</ul>


As recently written by Brian Freitas and Sumeet Singh , BYD (1211 HK) is placing new shares on the market at at a price range of HK$333-345/share.
The stock today dropped to roughly 340 and it's oversold WEEKLY according to our models. Buying here, at this price, should bear fruit in coming weeks. More details below.
We cannot yet predict the profit targets because our model needs the WEEKLY Close for this week, to do that. We will update this information when it becomes available.


BYD (1211 HK) Placement: Tactical Buy Opportunity in Key Support Zone

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

<ul>
<li>Our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nifty-poised-to-reignite-its-uptrend-but-faces-short-term-obstacles" target="_blank" rel="noopener">latest insight</a> on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> recognized the possibility of obstacles against a rally from the index's lows.</li>
<li>The index has fallen for another 2 weeks from there, now it is very oversold and a relief rally could begin this week or the next.</li>
<li>Profit targets for this relief rally are in the 23100 area, but unfortunately the forecast is maximum 3 weeks up, not really a bullish pattern...
</li>
</ul>


Our latest insight on the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) recognized the possibility of obstacles against a rally from the index's lows.
The index has fallen for another 2 weeks from there, now it is very oversold and a relief rally could begin this week or the next.
Profit targets for this relief rally are in the 23100 area, but unfortunately the forecast is maximum 3 weeks up, not really a bullish pattern...



NIFTY Set for a Modest Rally from Current Lows

Quantitative Researcher, Algorithmic Trader and former Portfolio Manager at Capital Theory Investment Management, LLC, a CTA based in Austin, Texas (USA), where I developed and ran automated algorithmic trading strategies for the US Futures and Options markets. 

My work is focused on the statistical study of the "persistence of trends" and "mean reversion" effects in global Equities, Futures, Indexes, Bonds and FX Spot markets. I make extensive use of probabilistic Bayesian models to predict short-term (1 day to few weeks) trend reversals.

I do not use any AI/machine learning processes in my work: all models and algorithms are built by humans. This approach is very labour-intensive but produces forecasts that have a clearly understandable/explainable rationale (no black-boxes).