Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

<ul>
<li>A tactical WEEKLY snapshot of the Asian indices and stocks we cover.</li>
<li>Many Asian stocks we track are flashing very oversold signals—creating tactical long setups worth considering.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> is the only Asian stock overbought.</li>
</ul>


A tactical WEEKLY snapshot of the Asian indices and stocks we cover.
Many Asian stocks we track are flashing very oversold signals—creating tactical long setups worth considering.

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is the only Asian stock overbought.


Asian Stocks Tactical Outlook (Week Dec 22 – Dec 26)

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> keeps rising steadily, while the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> rebalances became effective on December 19th, after the Close.</li>
<li>According to our model <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> has plenty of room to rise higher, beyond 4.4k, on this leg, but after that point it could make a small pullback.</li>
<li>The commodity is quite overbought, but based on the behavior witnessed in the past when the current WEEKLY trend pattern was encountered, it could rise to 4.6k in 6-8 weeks.</li>
</ul>



Gold (GOLD COMDTY) keeps rising steadily, while the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) rebalances became effective on December 19th, after the Close.
According to our model Gold (GOLD COMDTY) has plenty of room to rise higher, beyond 4.4k, on this leg, but after that point it could make a small pullback.
The commodity is quite overbought, but based on the behavior witnessed in the past when the current WEEKLY trend pattern was encountered, it could rise to 4.6k in 6-8 weeks.


Tactical View: Gold Eyes 4,600 As GDX ETF Rebalances

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> had a great run this year, since Trump's Liberation Day in April 2025, but seems to be stalling as of lately. </li>
<li>The index started correcting this week, after a 3-week rally, the interest rate decision by the BOJ this Friday (most likely a hike) could increase volatility.</li>
<li>This insight will try to define the best entry zones in case the index falls further in the next few days, weeks. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) had a great run this year, since Trump's Liberation Day in April 2025, but seems to be stalling as of lately. 
The index started correcting this week, after a 3-week rally, the interest rate decision by the BOJ this Friday (most likely a hike) could increase volatility.
This insight will try to define the best entry zones in case the index falls further in the next few days, weeks. 


Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) Outlook Ahead of Friday's BOJ Rate Decision

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> is in the middle of a very mild correction, the index is now in its 3rd week down but the pullback has been very minimal.</li>
<li>We think this is the ideal set up to add LONG NIFTY 50 positions: mild pullback coupled with a high probability of reversal on our quantitative TIME MODEL.  </li>
<li>The proposed tactical LONG trade will be valid for this entire week, if the index stays below last week's Close.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) is in the middle of a very mild correction, the index is now in its 3rd week down but the pullback has been very minimal.
We think this is the ideal set up to add LONG NIFTY 50 positions: mild pullback coupled with a high probability of reversal on our quantitative TIME MODEL.  
The proposed tactical LONG trade will be valid for this entire week, if the index stays below last week's Close.


NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook: A Buy Opportunity

BYD Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company also researches, develops, manufactures and sells batteries, which are applied on mobile phones, cordless phones, power tools and other kinds of portable electronic devices.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> has been downtrending for a while, a speculative LONG positioning starts to become attractive for some, but according to our model the short-term upside is limited.</li>
<li>The stock is pulling back this week, second consecutive week down, this insight will try to identify price zones where to buy the stock and where to exit / hedge.</li>
<li>BYD could be held past our suggested profit target at 101.8 (in case the next bear rally it's not just a bear-rally), but time-wise it's a 2 weeks rally, tops.</li>
</ul>



BYD (1211 HK) has been downtrending for a while, a speculative LONG positioning starts to become attractive for some, but according to our model the short-term upside is limited.
The stock is pulling back this week, second consecutive week down, this insight will try to identify price zones where to buy the stock and where to exit / hedge.
BYD could be held past our suggested profit target at 101.8 (in case the next bear rally it's not just a bear-rally), but time-wise it's a 2 weeks rally, tops.


BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Time To Go LONG? Not Yet.

Quantitative Researcher, Algorithmic Trader and former Portfolio Manager at Capital Theory Investment Management, LLC (Austin, TX - USA). 

I specialize in systematic, short-term forecasting for US and Pan-Asian Stocks and Indexes. My methodology is centered on proprietary quantitative modeling (statistical study of trend persistence and mean reversion effects), leveraging probabilistic Bayesian models to predict tactical shifts over a 1-day to few-week horizon.

All models are explicitly human-built—no AI/machine learning—to eliminate black-box risk. This intensive, non-automated approach ensures that every Tactical Market Call is supported by a clear, explainable rationale.