Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The strong rebound from the crash low signals resilience in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>, and notably, the index appears to be staging a short-term breakout from its recent downtrend.
</li>
<li>Is this the start of a rally? It's hard to say, given the current economic uncertainty—however, our model suggests the index could extend its gains for another week.</li>
<li>The rally should be limited, a good profit target according to our model is between 24039 and 24496.
</li>
</ul>


The strong rebound from the crash low signals resilience in the NIFTY Index, and notably, the index appears to be staging a short-term breakout from its recent downtrend.

Is this the start of a rally? It's hard to say, given the current economic uncertainty—however, our model suggests the index could extend its gains for another week.
The rally should be limited, a good profit target according to our model is between 24039 and 24496.



NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook (Post-Easter Targets)

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>Implied vol spiked sharply on Monday, marking one of the largest single-day moves since the pandemic.</li>
<li>We discuss the move in skew and suggest a course of action for previously recommended hedges.</li>
<li>The magnitude of the implied vol move is examined in the context of recent price behavior—and whether it holds.</li>
</ul>


Implied vol spiked sharply on Monday, marking one of the largest single-day moves since the pandemic.
We discuss the move in skew and suggest a course of action for previously recommended hedges.
The magnitude of the implied vol move is examined in the context of recent price behavior—and whether it holds.


Nifty Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Volatility Spikes, Skew Steepens, Hedges Reassessed

Head of Trading/ Partner, AceGama Advisors

Sankalp Singh

Head of Trading/ Partner

Proprietary Trading Desk

AceGama Advisors

Trading desk specializing in the Listed & OTC options strategies for risk management & investment purposes.

<ul>
<li>Risk premia in Nifty50 Options catches up with Global Markets as IVs spike from sub-12% to 24% - levels last seen during 2024 National Elections. </li>
<li>Vol-Regime switches from "Low &amp; Up" state to "High &amp; Up". Term-structure swings into Backwardation. Front-end risk premiums elevated in spite of truncated upcoming week.  </li>
<li>Tactical Implications: (1) Use IV-spike to flatten +ve Vega exposure. (2) Avoid -ve Gamma, Vol harvesting structures. (3) Front-end/ Back-end Calendars recommended as extreme curve inversion expected to normalize.</li>
</ul>


Risk premia in Nifty50 Options catches up with Global Markets as IVs spike from sub-12% to 24% - levels last seen during 2024 National Elections. 
Vol-Regime switches from "Low &amp; Up" state to "High &amp; Up". Term-structure swings into Backwardation. Front-end risk premiums elevated in spite of truncated upcoming week.  
Tactical Implications: (1) Use IV-spike to flatten +ve Vega exposure. (2) Avoid -ve Gamma, Vol harvesting structures. (3) Front-end/ Back-end Calendars recommended as extreme curve inversion expected to normalize.


NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Risk Premia Catches up with Global Counterparts in Spite of Truncated Week

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> post-crash bounce peaked around 4.4% before stalling—mirroring the fading rebounds seen across global indices.</li>
<li>
The index has yet to reach levels attractive for shorting, but with two days remaining before the weekend, any positive tariff-related news will push the index towards the targets.</li>
<li>This insight highlights key price levels for initiating tactical shorts or exiting longs, depending on the tariffs scenario that, once again, changed dramatically from one day to the next.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) post-crash bounce peaked around 4.4% before stalling—mirroring the fading rebounds seen across global indices.

The index has yet to reach levels attractive for shorting, but with two days remaining before the weekend, any positive tariff-related news will push the index towards the targets.
This insight highlights key price levels for initiating tactical shorts or exiting longs, depending on the tariffs scenario that, once again, changed dramatically from one day to the next.


NIFTY Index Rally Outlook After Trump's Tariffs PAUSE

<ul>
<li>Nifty50 risk premia recovers from depressed levels due to Global trade tensions. Lags global equity Vol-spike. Monthly IVs: 11.0% -&gt; 12.5%. Vol-Regime moves to "Low &amp; Up" state.  </li>
<li>Term-Structure swings into Backwardation in the Front-End, but curve finally settled back in Contango by week's end. Skew/ Smile characteristics held steady with slight compression in Strangle markups.</li>
<li>Tactical Implications: (1) Continue reduced exposure to Risk-premia harvesting, (2) Long Vega structures recommended in "Low &amp; Up" vol-state. </li>
</ul>


Nifty50 risk premia recovers from depressed levels due to Global trade tensions. Lags global equity Vol-spike. Monthly IVs: 11.0% -&gt; 12.5%. Vol-Regime moves to "Low &amp; Up" state.  
Term-Structure swings into Backwardation in the Front-End, but curve finally settled back in Contango by week's end. Skew/ Smile characteristics held steady with slight compression in Strangle markups.
Tactical Implications: (1) Continue reduced exposure to Risk-premia harvesting, (2) Long Vega structures recommended in "Low &amp; Up" vol-state. 


NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Trade Tensions Prevail: Reduce Vol Harvesting & Position for +ve Vega.

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook (Post-Easter Targets)

The NIFTY Index rallied and performed a potential short-term breakout, but global uncertainty remains. Our model suggests gains could continue for...

Nico Rosti

Nifty Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Volatility Spikes, Skew Steepens, Hedges Reassessed

Implied volatility surged on Monday, prompting a reevaluation of recommended hedges and the sustainability of recent price movements.

John Ley

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Risk Premia Catches up with Global Counterparts in Spite of Truncated Week

Nifty50 Options see spike in IVs, reaching levels not seen since 2024 elections. Tactical advice: flatten +ve Vega exposure, avoid -ve Gamma...

AceGama Advisors

NIFTY Index Rally Outlook After Trump's Tariffs PAUSE

The NIFTY Index's post-crash bounce stalled at 4.4%, waiting for Trump's tariff-related news to push higher. This insight discusses the index's...

Nico Rosti

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Trade Tensions Prevail: Reduce Vol Harvesting & Position for +ve Vega.

Event risk/ IV update: Market holiday on 10.04.2025 & trade tensions have trickled into Local Markets. IVs have spiked from 12.5% to 22.5%. Vol...

AceGama Advisors

NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook (Post-Easter Targets)

​The NIFTY Index rallied and performed a potential short-term breakout, but global uncertainty remains. Our model suggests gains could continue for...

Nico Rosti

Nifty Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Volatility Spikes, Skew Steepens, Hedges Reassessed

​Implied volatility surged on Monday, prompting a reevaluation of recommended hedges and the sustainability of recent price movements.

John Ley

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Risk Premia Catches up with Global Counterparts in Spite of Truncated Week

​Nifty50 Options see spike in IVs, reaching levels not seen since 2024 elections. Tactical advice: flatten +ve Vega exposure, avoid -ve Gamma...

AceGama Advisors

NIFTY Index Rally Outlook After Trump's Tariffs PAUSE

​The NIFTY Index's post-crash bounce stalled at 4.4%, waiting for Trump's tariff-related news to push higher. This insight discusses the index's...

Nico Rosti

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Trade Tensions Prevail: Reduce Vol Harvesting & Position for +ve Vega.

Event risk/ IV update: Market holiday on 10.04.2025 & trade tensions have trickled into Local Markets. IVs have spiked from 12.5% to 22.5%. Vol...

AceGama Advisors

The NIFTY Index rallied and performed a potential short-term breakout, but global uncertainty remains. Our model suggests gains could continue for...

Implied volatility surged on Monday, prompting a reevaluation of recommended hedges and the sustainability of recent price movements.

Nifty50 Options see spike in IVs, reaching levels not seen since 2024 elections. Tactical advice: flatten +ve Vega exposure, avoid -ve Gamma...

The NIFTY Index's post-crash bounce stalled at 4.4%, waiting for Trump's tariff-related news to push higher. This insight discusses the index's...