HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

China Resources Beverage / Equity Capital Markets

China Resources Beverage Shenzhen manufactures and distributes non-alcoholic beverages. The Company produces black tea, milk tea, coffee, mineral water, vitamin drinks, and other beverages.

<ul>
<li>Over 92% of CR Beverage’s revenue is from packaged drinking water products, but YoY growth this business is already below industry CAGR, raising concerns about whether future growth will stall.</li>
<li>The revenue scale/profitability of CR Beverage are far inferior to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring</a>. In terms of cost control, operational efficiency and the strength of supply chain, CR Beverage is lagging behind.</li>
<li>For low-priced packaging water, the nationwide expansion is not a simple task, which will lead to significant cash outflow. Valuation of CR Beverage should be lower than that of peers. </li>
</ul>


Over 92% of CR Beverage’s revenue is from packaged drinking water products, but YoY growth this business is already below industry CAGR, raising concerns about whether future growth will stall.
The revenue scale/profitability of CR Beverage are far inferior to Nongfu Spring. In terms of cost control, operational efficiency and the strength of supply chain, CR Beverage is lagging behind.
For low-priced packaging water, the nationwide expansion is not a simple task, which will lead to significant cash outflow. Valuation of CR Beverage should be lower than that of peers. 


Pre-IPO China Resources Beverage - Here Are the Concerns and the Risks Behind

Giant Biogene Holding Co., Ltd researches, develops, manufactures, and distributes, and markets skin treatment products. The Company produces recombinant collagen and rare ginsenosides skin treatment products, functional foods, and other products. Giant Biogene Holding conducts businesses in China.

<ul>
<li>Despite high growth in 2023, the accelerated growth of Giant Biogene has entered a turning point, and its performance has begun to slow down. Long-term growth momentum is highly uncertain. </li>
<li>Giant Biogene plans to prioritize the market entry of Class III medical device products.Due to increasing competition/challenges in marketing/promotion, it takes time to verify if the second growth curve works. </li>
<li>Reasonable valuation for Giant Biogene is P/E of 20-30x.If based on RMB1.8 billion 2024, market value is RMB36-54 billion. Short-term catalyst is the Online 618 Shopping Festival and 24H1 report.  </li>
</ul>


Despite high growth in 2023, the accelerated growth of Giant Biogene has entered a turning point, and its performance has begun to slow down. Long-term growth momentum is highly uncertain. 
Giant Biogene plans to prioritize the market entry of Class III medical device products.Due to increasing competition/challenges in marketing/promotion, it takes time to verify if the second growth curve works. 
Reasonable valuation for Giant Biogene is P/E of 20-30x.If based on RMB1.8 billion 2024, market value is RMB36-54 billion. Short-term catalyst is the Online 618 Shopping Festival and 24H1 report.  


Giant Biogene (2367.HK) Placement - A Turning Point in Performance Growth Has Emerged

Equity Bottom-Up

WuXi AppTec Co., Ltd. manufactures medical products. The Company produces biological agents, antibodies, biological diagnostic reagents, and other products. WuXi AppTec also provides biological analysis, technical study, and other services.

<ul>
<li>In 24Q1, the innovative drug projects and medical device projects ranked top two in domestic investment and financing deals, but investment in the field of AI cooled down.</li>
<li>For biotech that located in China and only for China markets, it’s hard for them to generate good returns. It is recommended not to spend too much time on them.</li>
<li>As the US House Committee advances the BIOSECURE Act to restrict WuXi AppTec/WuXi Bio last week, we listed some points worth the attention at this stage.This is far from over.</li>
</ul>


In 24Q1, the innovative drug projects and medical device projects ranked top two in domestic investment and financing deals, but investment in the field of AI cooled down.
For biotech that located in China and only for China markets, it’s hard for them to generate good returns. It is recommended not to spend too much time on them.
As the US House Committee advances the BIOSECURE Act to restrict WuXi AppTec/WuXi Bio last week, we listed some points worth the attention at this stage.This is far from over.


China Healthcare Weekly (May.19)- Decoupling Deadline with WuXi,Biotech Classification,Deals Cooling

Event-Driven

L'Occitane International S.A. is a global, natural and organic ingredient based cosmetics and well-being products enterprise.  The Company designs, manufactures and markets a wide range of cosmetics and well-being products based on natural and organic ingredients sourced principally from or near Provence.

<ul>
<li>The HK$34/share offer price is final, which exceeds all-time high closing price of HK$33.60/share since IPO in 2010. EUR6 billion is equivalent to a PE of 52.17x, higher than peers.</li>
<li>Deploying China's sinking market is “a good story full of imagination”. However, it may fail to bring expected profits considering increasing competition/potential price war, leading to uncertain future performance growth.</li>
<li>For minority shareholders, this privatization provides an attractive opportunity to monetise their investments at a premium over market price. We don't think the current "technical bull market" to be lasting. </li>
</ul>


The HK$34/share offer price is final, which exceeds all-time high closing price of HK$33.60/share since IPO in 2010. EUR6 billion is equivalent to a PE of 52.17x, higher than peers.
Deploying China's sinking market is “a good story full of imagination”. However, it may fail to bring expected profits considering increasing competition/potential price war, leading to uncertain future performance growth.
For minority shareholders, this privatization provides an attractive opportunity to monetise their investments at a premium over market price. We don't think the current "technical bull market" to be lasting. 


L'Occitane (973.HK) Privatization - The Offer Price Is Good Enough

<ul>
<li>The growth of TIDES business slowed down, and revenue decreased QoQ despite increasing production capacity.As the main growth point of WuXi AppTec’s future performance, this is not a good signal.</li>
<li>Due to BIOSECURE Act, US companies have been negotiating with other contract manufacturers so as to reduce reliance on WuXi AppTec.Let’s see the situation of new orders in following quarters.</li>
<li>WuXi AppTec’s performance recovery is closely related to the pace of Fed's interest rate cuts. From the perspective of growth outlook/macro environment/geopolitical conflicts, WuXi AppTec is still in "dangerous period".</li>
</ul>


The growth of TIDES business slowed down, and revenue decreased QoQ despite increasing production capacity.As the main growth point of WuXi AppTec’s future performance, this is not a good signal.
Due to BIOSECURE Act, US companies have been negotiating with other contract manufacturers so as to reduce reliance on WuXi AppTec.Let’s see the situation of new orders in following quarters.
WuXi AppTec’s performance recovery is closely related to the pace of Fed's interest rate cuts. From the perspective of growth outlook/macro environment/geopolitical conflicts, WuXi AppTec is still in "dangerous period".


WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) - The Pain of 2024 Has Just Begun

Over 15 years' experience in both finance and healthcare, covering clinic operations, investment and equity research in both China and overseas.

Xinyao (Criss) Wang
HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Pre-IPO China Resources Beverage - Here Are the Concerns and the Risks Behind

CR Beverage is growing steadily but the momentum/profitability far inferior to peers. Growth rate of packaged water business is lower than the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Giant Biogene (2367.HK) Placement - A Turning Point in Performance Growth Has Emerged

Giant Biogene's growth is slowing down with uncertain long-term outlook.Selling Class III medical devices faces challenge in marketing.Reasonable...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (May.19)- Decoupling Deadline with WuXi,Biotech Classification,Deals Cooling

Investment/financing deals cooling in 24Q1. It's better not to spend too much time on Biotech that located in China and only for China...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

L'Occitane (973.HK) Privatization - The Offer Price Is Good Enough

The Offeror has received valid expressions of interest from Minority Shareholders holding, in aggregate, not less than 10% of Disinterested Shares....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) - The Pain of 2024 Has Just Begun

House Committee advances Bill to restrict WuXi AppTec/WuXi Bio, which then needs to be passed by a full vote in House/Senate and finally signed...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO China Resources Beverage - Here Are the Concerns and the Risks Behind

CR Beverage is growing steadily but the momentum/profitability far inferior to peers. Growth rate of packaged water business is lower than the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Giant Biogene (2367.HK) Placement - A Turning Point in Performance Growth Has Emerged

​Giant Biogene's growth is slowing down with uncertain long-term outlook.Selling Class III medical devices faces challenge in marketing.Reasonable...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (May.19)- Decoupling Deadline with WuXi,Biotech Classification,Deals Cooling

Investment/financing deals cooling in 24Q1. It's better not to spend too much time on Biotech that located in China and only for China...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

L'Occitane (973.HK) Privatization - The Offer Price Is Good Enough

The Offeror has received valid expressions of interest from Minority Shareholders holding, in aggregate, not less than 10% of Disinterested Shares....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) - The Pain of 2024 Has Just Begun

House Committee advances Bill to restrict WuXi AppTec/WuXi Bio, which then needs to be passed by a full vote in House/Senate and finally signed...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Giant Biogene's growth is slowing down with uncertain long-term outlook.Selling Class III medical devices faces challenge in marketing.Reasonable...