HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

InSilico Medicine Cayman TopCo / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The IPO pricing reflects the liquidity value brought by IPO and recognition of cornerstone investors, but InSilico is facing huge uncertainties.Its value will take several years to be verified.</li>
<li>Our revenue forecast is US$55 million/US$70-90 million/US$100-150 million in 2025/2026/2027, respectively. Insilico may suffer losses in the next three years, but in 2027, the Company may turn loss into profits.</li>
<li>The essential difference between QuantumPharm and InSilico lies in business models. We’re more optimistic about InSilico in long term, whose valuation may surpass QuantumPharm if InSilico can develop blockbuster drugs.</li>
</ul>


The IPO pricing reflects the liquidity value brought by IPO and recognition of cornerstone investors, but InSilico is facing huge uncertainties.Its value will take several years to be verified.
Our revenue forecast is US$55 million/US$70-90 million/US$100-150 million in 2025/2026/2027, respectively. Insilico may suffer losses in the next three years, but in 2027, the Company may turn loss into profits.
The essential difference between QuantumPharm and InSilico lies in business models. We’re more optimistic about InSilico in long term, whose valuation may surpass QuantumPharm if InSilico can develop blockbuster drugs.


Pre-IPO InSilico Medicine - Thoughts on Valuation, Peer Comparison and Forecast

Founded in 1994, Tanboer is a leading professional outdoor apparel brand in China. The company’s product portfolio includes professional outdoor clothing (mainly comprising down jackets, hardshell garments, and softshell garments) that cater to activities such as skiing, mountaineering, and hiking in various natural environments. Additionally, it addresses urban scenarios like outings, park leisure, commuting, and redefines trends in outdoor lifestyle.

<ul>
<li>Tanboer has rapidly expanded through a model of "affordable products + online marketing-driven", but it lacks core technological barriers and is highly dependent on marketing and channels.</li>
<li>Under the heavy marketing strategy, Tanboer’s inventory backlog problem has become prominent, with inventory turnover days significantly higher than peers. So, Tanboer’s marketing strategy is not as effective as expected.</li>
<li>The large dividend payout on the eve of IPO has sparked controversy. Due to lower market share/profit margin, weakness in high-end market, valuation of Tanboer would be lower than peers.</li>
</ul>


Tanboer has rapidly expanded through a model of "affordable products + online marketing-driven", but it lacks core technological barriers and is highly dependent on marketing and channels.
Under the heavy marketing strategy, Tanboer’s inventory backlog problem has become prominent, with inventory turnover days significantly higher than peers. So, Tanboer’s marketing strategy is not as effective as expected.
The large dividend payout on the eve of IPO has sparked controversy. Due to lower market share/profit margin, weakness in high-end market, valuation of Tanboer would be lower than peers.


Pre-IPO Tanboer Group - Low Profit Margin Is a Pain Poin

Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech / Equity Capital Markets

Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech (SFCBT HK)

<ul>
<li>FOREST CABIN’s been subject to administrative penalties for false advertising. The natural ingredient that consumers truly pursue holds the highest premium in essence oil, but its content/efficacy is exaggerated.</li>
<li>Pre-IPO valuation reached over RMB3.8bn. Some investors may believe that, given that FOREST CABIN's profitability has initially been proven, its valuation is attractive. However, think FOREST CABIN have some issues.</li>
<li>Valuation of FOREST CABIN should be lower than Mao Geping. A comfortable range could be P/E of 20-30x. If future growth declined/profit margin deteriorates, valuation may fall to 10-20x P/E.</li>
</ul>


FOREST CABIN’s been subject to administrative penalties for false advertising. The natural ingredient that consumers truly pursue holds the highest premium in essence oil, but its content/efficacy is exaggerated.
Pre-IPO valuation reached over RMB3.8bn. Some investors may believe that, given that FOREST CABIN's profitability has initially been proven, its valuation is attractive. However, think FOREST CABIN have some issues.
Valuation of FOREST CABIN should be lower than Mao Geping. A comfortable range could be P/E of 20-30x. If future growth declined/profit margin deteriorates, valuation may fall to 10-20x P/E.


Pre-IPO Shanghai Forest Cabin Cosmetics Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

<ul>
<li>Although Insilico’s development direction is AI-Biotech, its “genes” don’t support the continuous promotion of drug R&amp;D into later clinical stages. It’s more realistic to sell early-stage candidates and collect cash.</li>
<li>Relying solely on AI pharmaceuticals cannot quickly enter the commercialization stage of innovative drugs. In fact, capital has seen the truth and pharmaceutical companies also doubt its real value.</li>
<li>Insilico in on the right path in terms of business model.If InSilico has the opportunity to develop blockbuster drugs, its future valuation can easily lead QuantumPharm by a large margin.</li>
</ul>


Although Insilico’s development direction is AI-Biotech, its “genes” don’t support the continuous promotion of drug R&amp;D into later clinical stages. It’s more realistic to sell early-stage candidates and collect cash.
Relying solely on AI pharmaceuticals cannot quickly enter the commercialization stage of innovative drugs. In fact, capital has seen the truth and pharmaceutical companies also doubt its real value.
Insilico in on the right path in terms of business model.If InSilico has the opportunity to develop blockbuster drugs, its future valuation can easily lead QuantumPharm by a large margin.


Pre-IPO InSilico Medicine (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Yeeper Nutrition Technology (Qingdao) Group / Equity Capital Markets

Yeeper Nutrition Technology (Qingdao) Group (YNT HK)

Yeeper Nutrition Technology (Qingdao) Group

<ul>
<li>Many companies enter the goat/sheep milk powder market due to higher gross margin than cow milk powder, but after years of development, this market has been in a shrinking trend.</li>
<li>With a closed-loop capability in full internal control, production and supply of core ingredients of demineralized goat and sheep whey, Yeeper has supply chain advantage, thus with higher pricing power.</li>
<li>Yeeper’ has shown the characteristics of "slowing revenue growth, and increasing pressure on net profit margin" due to intensified competition. Valuation could be lower than Yili but higher than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe</a>.</li>
</ul>


Many companies enter the goat/sheep milk powder market due to higher gross margin than cow milk powder, but after years of development, this market has been in a shrinking trend.
With a closed-loop capability in full internal control, production and supply of core ingredients of demineralized goat and sheep whey, Yeeper has supply chain advantage, thus with higher pricing power.
Yeeper’ has shown the characteristics of "slowing revenue growth, and increasing pressure on net profit margin" due to intensified competition. Valuation could be lower than Yili but higher than China Feihe.


Pre-IPO Yeeper Nutrition Technology (Qingdao) Group - Concerns About the Business and the Outlook

Over 15 years' experience in both finance and healthcare, covering clinic operations, investment and equity research in both China and overseas.

Xinyao (Criss) Wang
HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Pre-IPO InSilico Medicine - Thoughts on Valuation, Peer Comparison and Forecast

InSilico's IPO pricing reflects the recognition of investors, but still faces uncertainties. Revenue forecast shows potential for profit by 2027,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Tanboer Group - Low Profit Margin Is a Pain Poin

Tanboer's expansion through affordable products+online marketing is hindered by low margin/inventory backlog,leading to lower valuation than...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Shanghai Forest Cabin Cosmetics Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Investors may find the valuation of Forest Cabin attractive, but there're some issues. Its valuation should be lower than Mao Geping. If growth...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO InSilico Medicine (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Positioned as AI-biotech,Insilico has to sell pipeline for cash as AI pharmaceuticals face challenge in commercialization and skepticism from...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Yeeper Nutrition Technology (Qingdao) Group - Concerns About the Business and the Outlook

The goat/sheep milk powder market faces shrinking trend. Yeeper's closed-loop supply chain gives pricing advantage but with big competition...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO InSilico Medicine - Thoughts on Valuation, Peer Comparison and Forecast

​InSilico's IPO pricing reflects the recognition of investors, but still faces uncertainties. Revenue forecast shows potential for profit by 2027,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Tanboer Group - Low Profit Margin Is a Pain Poin

​Tanboer's expansion through affordable products+online marketing is hindered by low margin/inventory backlog,leading to lower valuation than...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Shanghai Forest Cabin Cosmetics Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Investors may find the valuation of Forest Cabin attractive, but there're some issues. Its valuation should be lower than Mao Geping. If growth...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO InSilico Medicine (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Positioned as AI-biotech,​Insilico has to sell pipeline for cash as AI pharmaceuticals face challenge in commercialization and skepticism from...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Yeeper Nutrition Technology (Qingdao) Group - Concerns About the Business and the Outlook

The goat/sheep milk powder market faces shrinking trend. Yeeper's closed-loop supply chain gives pricing advantage but with big competition...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

InSilico's IPO pricing reflects the recognition of investors, but still faces uncertainties. Revenue forecast shows potential for profit by 2027,...

Tanboer's expansion through affordable products+online marketing is hindered by low margin/inventory backlog,leading to lower valuation than...

Positioned as AI-biotech,Insilico has to sell pipeline for cash as AI pharmaceuticals face challenge in commercialization and skepticism from...