Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index / Event-Driven

The KOSPI Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges. The Index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1980. Note: The preferred shares are excluded in calculating the KOSPI Index from June 14, 2002. 

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

<ul>
<li>The major framework of this realignment is likely decided, integrating KOSPI and KOSDAQ into a tiered system based on liquidity, market cap, and financial status, with periodic replacements.</li>
<li>The KOSPI 200's continued existence is uncertain under the new realignment plan, which may shift its role to the value-up index, resembling Japan’s market restructuring model.</li>
<li>The first-tier market's entry requirements will likely reflect value-up index criteria, suggesting greater speculative money movement toward the value-up index starting in September.</li>
</ul>


The major framework of this realignment is likely decided, integrating KOSPI and KOSDAQ into a tiered system based on liquidity, market cap, and financial status, with periodic replacements.
The KOSPI 200's continued existence is uncertain under the new realignment plan, which may shift its role to the value-up index, resembling Japan’s market restructuring model.
The first-tier market's entry requirements will likely reflect value-up index criteria, suggesting greater speculative money movement toward the value-up index starting in September.


KRX's Plan to Integrate KOSPI & KOSDAQ into a Tiered System: Trading Considerations

Samsung C&T Corporation conducts diversified business support services and resort operation activities. The Company offers a range of services in areas including clothing retail, construction, energy, real estate, food service, and resort accommodations. Samsung C&T also operates a resort with amusement rides, a zoo, water park, golf clubs, and restaurants.

<ul>
<li>Maximizing Lee Jae-yong's dividend income is crucial, making Samsung SDS's ₩5.5T cash assets key, thus prompting the merger of Samsung C&amp;T and Samsung SDS's BPO division.</li>
<li>With no legal risks for Lee Jae-yong, Samsung C&amp;T needs the merger to increase assets and avoid forced holding company conversion, making the acquisition of Samsung SDS’s BPO division necessary.</li>
<li>We should target a setup for likely appraisal rights for C&amp;T. Monitor and capture the spread between the stock price and appraisal rights exercise price.</li>
</ul>


Maximizing Lee Jae-yong's dividend income is crucial, making Samsung SDS's ₩5.5T cash assets key, thus prompting the merger of Samsung C&amp;T and Samsung SDS's BPO division.
With no legal risks for Lee Jae-yong, Samsung C&amp;T needs the merger to increase assets and avoid forced holding company conversion, making the acquisition of Samsung SDS’s BPO division necessary.
We should target a setup for likely appraisal rights for C&amp;T. Monitor and capture the spread between the stock price and appraisal rights exercise price.


Examining Market Interest in the Potential Samsung C&T and SDS Restructuring

KT Corporation provides telecommunication services including local, long distance, and international calling, satellite communication, data transmission, and wireless telephone services in South Korea.  The Company also offers network portal and high-speed Internet access services using asymmetric digital subscriber lines (ADSLs).

<ul>
<li>KT's foreign room has been exhausted due to value-up trading inflows, NPS selling shares, and KT canceling treasury stocks.</li>
<li>Hyundai Motor may sell 0.5% of its KT stake, likely to overseas investors. KT's 700,000 share cancellation will lower foreign ownership to the low-4% range, possibly below 3.75% by November.</li>
<li>Focus on the stock price surge from ETF recall requests around the effective date, and note that passive outflow corrections typically occur afterward.</li>
</ul>


KT's foreign room has been exhausted due to value-up trading inflows, NPS selling shares, and KT canceling treasury stocks.
Hyundai Motor may sell 0.5% of its KT stake, likely to overseas investors. KT's 700,000 share cancellation will lower foreign ownership to the low-4% range, possibly below 3.75% by November.
Focus on the stock price surge from ETF recall requests around the effective date, and note that passive outflow corrections typically occur afterward.


Reasons Why KT's Foreign Room Is Likely to Fall Below the 3.75% Cutoff Level

SK Innovation Co., Ltd. refines, markets, and distributes oil.  The Company produces a variety of petroleum products, such as gasoline, kerosene, liquefied petroleumgas (LPG), and diesel oil.  SK Energy also manufactures petrochemical p roducts, including paraxylene, synthetic resins, styrene monomer, and ethylene.

<ul>
<li>The merger ratio, not as unfavorable to SK Innovation as feared, shows SK Group acting cautiously amid political and regulatory scrutiny.</li>
<li>SK Inc.'s stake will drop to mid-60s; the 1.2x merger ratio for SK E&amp;S could positively affect SK Innovation's stock price short-term.</li>
<li>Persuading KKR is crucial. SK E&amp;S won't convert ₩3T in RCPS or grant appraisal rights, potentially leading KKR to consider litigation, a significant risk to the merger.</li>
</ul>


The merger ratio, not as unfavorable to SK Innovation as feared, shows SK Group acting cautiously amid political and regulatory scrutiny.
SK Inc.'s stake will drop to mid-60s; the 1.2x merger ratio for SK E&amp;S could positively affect SK Innovation's stock price short-term.
Persuading KKR is crucial. SK E&amp;S won't convert ₩3T in RCPS or grant appraisal rights, potentially leading KKR to consider litigation, a significant risk to the merger.


SK Innovation & SK E&S Merger Official Disclosure: Unexpected Merger Ratio

Hyundai Glovis Co., Ltd. provides domestic and international logistic services. The Company's services include domestic transportation, storage, packaging, vehicle logistic, and logistic consulting.  GLOVIS also runs automobile auction market for used vehicle.

<ul>
<li>Korea's majority party plans to amend the Capital Markets Act to base listed companies' merger ratios on intrinsic rather than market value, dubbed the "Doosan Bobcat Prevention Law."</li>
<li>Other conglomerates, like Hanwha and Hyundai Motor Group, may execute mergers just before this amendment.</li>
<li>We should expect shareholder-favorable merger ratios. So, we should position in such companies before announcements, ideally just before the new amendment's enforcement.</li>
</ul>


Korea's majority party plans to amend the Capital Markets Act to base listed companies' merger ratios on intrinsic rather than market value, dubbed the "Doosan Bobcat Prevention Law."
Other conglomerates, like Hanwha and Hyundai Motor Group, may execute mergers just before this amendment.
We should expect shareholder-favorable merger ratios. So, we should position in such companies before announcements, ideally just before the new amendment's enforcement.


Trading Opportunities Arising from the Enactment of The "Doosan Bobcat Prevention Law"

Clepsydra Capital
Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

KRX's Plan to Integrate KOSPI & KOSDAQ into a Tiered System: Trading Considerations

This post examines KRX's plan to integrate KOSPI and KOSDAQ into a tiered system based on promotion and demotion, similar to Japan's, and discusses...

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Examining Market Interest in the Potential Samsung C&T and SDS Restructuring

This post examines the growing market interest and trading angles in the potential restructuring involving Samsung C&T and Samsung SDS.

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Reasons Why KT's Foreign Room Is Likely to Fall Below the 3.75% Cutoff Level

This post examines the reasons why KT's foreign room is likely to fall below the 3.75% cutoff level before the November review.

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SK Innovation & SK E&S Merger Official Disclosure: Unexpected Merger Ratio

This post outlines the official disclosure of the merger between SK Innovation and SK E&S, highlighting the unexpected merger ratio.

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Trading Opportunities Arising from the Enactment of The "Doosan Bobcat Prevention Law"

This post explores trading opportunities expected from the upcoming "Doosan Bobcat Prevention Law," as labeled by the local market.

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