Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Austal Limited is an emerging global defence prime contractor. The Group supplies vessel platforms such as the Littoral Combat Ship and the Joint High Speed Vessel to the United States Navy, an extensive range of patrol and auxiliary vessels to defence forces around the world, and installs and maintains military communications, radar and command and control systems.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal (ASB AU)</a> hasn't always seen eye to eye with Hanwha. An (any?) alternative bidder for the US ops is preferable. I'm not sure Wildcat Infrastructure is the best bet.</li>
<li>Zero shipbuilding track record, a defense division that's months old, and a NBIO contingent on due diligence. Plus unknown funding. It's no wonder Hanwha's DD has been extended.</li>
<li>Wildcat's pitch is political. And the Pentagon has reportedly been stalling talks with Hanwha. Yet, CFIUS previously indicated it had no unresolved national-security concerns regarding Hanwha taking 100% in Austal.</li>
</ul>



Austal (ASB AU) hasn't always seen eye to eye with Hanwha. An (any?) alternative bidder for the US ops is preferable. I'm not sure Wildcat Infrastructure is the best bet.
Zero shipbuilding track record, a defense division that's months old, and a NBIO contingent on due diligence. Plus unknown funding. It's no wonder Hanwha's DD has been extended.
Wildcat's pitch is political. And the Pentagon has reportedly been stalling talks with Hanwha. Yet, CFIUS previously indicated it had no unresolved national-security concerns regarding Hanwha taking 100% in Austal.


Austal (ASB AU) Extends DD to Hanwha As Wild Card Wildcat Lingers On The Scene

Ingenia Communities Group manages, develops and invests in a portfolio of retirement village accomodation housing units.

<ul>
<li>On the 5th October 2026, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ingenia-communities-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5495:1" rel="noopener">Ingenia Communities (INA AU)</a> (finally) extended due diligence to Warburg Pincus on a non-exclusive basis, after Warburg bumped (again) its non-binding terms to A$5.25/share.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://skr.ma/64gop" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ingenia (INA AU) Engages With Warburg. That's The Right Outcome</a><a href="https://skr.ma/64gop," target="_blank" rel="noopener">,</a> I mused there was scope for a bump. Warburg will now allow the 1H27 distribution (~A$0.05/share) to be added. </li>
<li>With conditions. Access to exclusive DD. And that the revised proposal is more favourable than Ingenia taking out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peet-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15586:1" rel="noopener">Peet Ltd (PPC AU)</a>. Ingenia's board has until 19th October to decide. </li>
</ul>


On the 5th October 2026, Ingenia Communities (INA AU) (finally) extended due diligence to Warburg Pincus on a non-exclusive basis, after Warburg bumped (again) its non-binding terms to A$5.25/share.
In Ingenia (INA AU) Engages With Warburg. That's The Right Outcome, I mused there was scope for a bump. Warburg will now allow the 1H27 distribution (~A$0.05/share) to be added. 
With conditions. Access to exclusive DD. And that the revised proposal is more favourable than Ingenia taking out Peet Ltd (PPC AU). Ingenia's board has until 19th October to decide. 


Ingenia (INA AU)'s Soft No As Warburg Adds More Gruel

Equity Holdings Limited provides personal trust and financial services to customers in Australia.   Services include will and estate planning, trustee for settlements, financial guardian, investment and property management and fund investments. Other services provided by the company  include income tax services, short term share trading and mortgage loans and investments.

<ul>
<li>Back on the 18th August 2026, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eqt-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7541:1" rel="noopener">EQT Holdings (EQT AU)</a>, a corporate trustee and fiduciary-services outfit, announced a NBIO from TPG of A$24.55/share, by way of a Scheme.</li>
<li>A littler a week later, BGH Capital lobbed a A$24.75/share NBIO, by way of a Scheme. EQT considered both NBIOs low-balled, but was willing to engage. </li>
<li>Reportedly, TPG has acquired 14.9% in EQT. At $23.50/share. Conscious of the ongoing ASIC litigation and super-exit restructuring costs, evidently this shareholder considered the NBIO terms to be full. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 18th August 2026, EQT Holdings (EQT AU), a corporate trustee and fiduciary-services outfit, announced a NBIO from TPG of A$24.55/share, by way of a Scheme.
A littler a week later, BGH Capital lobbed a A$24.75/share NBIO, by way of a Scheme. EQT considered both NBIOs low-balled, but was willing to engage. 
Reportedly, TPG has acquired 14.9% in EQT. At $23.50/share. Conscious of the ongoing ASIC litigation and super-exit restructuring costs, evidently this shareholder considered the NBIO terms to be full. 


EQT (EQT AU): TPG Raids ~15% Of The Register

Mayne Pharma Group Ltd. develops and manufactures oral pharmaceuticals.  The Company produces branded generics, specialty generics, and active pharmaceutical ingredients.

<ul>
<li>Back on the 21st Feb 2025, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a> entered into a Scheme with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals, at A$7.40/share. The wheels fell off the deal shortly afterward.</li>
<li>Cosette issued a "material adverse change" notice concerning a FDA warning/notice (on Nextstellis®) and Mayne's earnings guidance.  The Supreme Court disagreed. Cosette appealed. The Court has now dismissed that appeal.</li>
<li>Cosette's concurrent threat to shut the Salisbury manufacturing plant lead to Treasurer Jim Chalmers blocking the deal last November. Thanks Jim. Absent your intervention, Cosette had no legal out.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 21st Feb 2025, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) entered into a Scheme with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals, at A$7.40/share. The wheels fell off the deal shortly afterward.
Cosette issued a "material adverse change" notice concerning a FDA warning/notice (on Nextstellis®) and Mayne's earnings guidance.  The Supreme Court disagreed. Cosette appealed. The Court has now dismissed that appeal.
Cosette's concurrent threat to shut the Salisbury manufacturing plant lead to Treasurer Jim Chalmers blocking the deal last November. Thanks Jim. Absent your intervention, Cosette had no legal out.


Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): This One's On You Jim As Court Dismisses Cosette's Appeal

Hanwha Machinery & Service Holdings / Event-Driven

Hanwha Machinery & Service Holdings Co., Ltd produces mechanical equipment products. The Company manufactures general equipment and other products. Hanwha Machinery & Service Holdings also conducts shipbuilding, marine, aviation, and other businesses.

Hanwha Machinery & Service Holdings (0220W0 KS)

<ul>
<li>In August this year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10619:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS)</a> spun off its its distribution, hotel, and food businesses, and robotics and semiconductor equipment businesses, under <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-machinery-service-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:58718:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Machinery &amp; Service (0220W0 KS)</a>.</li>
<li>The Kim family firmly controls HMSH via various entities, the largest stake held via Hanwha Energy (23.69%).</li>
<li>Now Kim Dong-seon (third son of Hanwha Group Chairman Kim Seung-youn) has launched a Tender Offer for 19% in HMSH, elevating his stake to 24.81%. The current spread is attractive.</li>
</ul>


In August this year, Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS) spun off its its distribution, hotel, and food businesses, and robotics and semiconductor equipment businesses, under Hanwha Machinery &amp; Service (0220W0 KS).
The Kim family firmly controls HMSH via various entities, the largest stake held via Hanwha Energy (23.69%).
Now Kim Dong-seon (third son of Hanwha Group Chairman Kim Seung-youn) has launched a Tender Offer for 19% in HMSH, elevating his stake to 24.81%. The current spread is attractive.


Hanwha Machinery & Service (0220W0 KS): Kim's Partial Is Worth A Second Look

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. 

I'm a highly experienced sell-side analyst with in excess of 26 years of covering Asia Pacific equities, the past 20 years immersed in event strategies encompassing M&A risk arbitrage, directional long/short, stub trades and restructuring.  

My background also includes accountancy (liquidation/bankruptcy/receivership) earlier in my career and as a chief financial officer of a global commodity company based in the US and Mexico.

David Blennerhassett
Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events
• Quiddity Advisors

Austal (ASB AU) Extends DD to Hanwha As Wild Card Wildcat Lingers On The Scene

Hanwha is the Real McCoy. Wildcat's Offer, if somehow firmed, must be at or above Hanwha's terms. Unless you think Hanwha's bid gets politically...

David Blennerhassett

Ingenia (INA AU)'s Soft No As Warburg Adds More Gruel

Ingenia is rolling over. And Peet popping. Arbs unwinding suggests a soft no to Warburg's terms, especially at it relates to abandoning the Peet...

David Blennerhassett

EQT (EQT AU): TPG Raids ~15% Of The Register

I'd be buying. Then buying some more. Yes - terms (adjusted for the FY26 dividend) remain indicative. But TPG is not going to sit on 14.9%.

David Blennerhassett

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): This One's On You Jim As Court Dismisses Cosette's Appeal

Mayne is 61% adrift of Cosette's Offer price. Yet, Mayne doesn't scream "buy" here. 5x+ forward EV/EBITDA is ok. The market is expecting EBITDA to...

David Blennerhassett

Hanwha Machinery & Service (0220W0 KS): Kim's Partial Is Worth A Second Look

HMSH had fallen nearly 40% since its listing, promulgated by foreign investors exiting. Kim Seung-youn is taking advantage of that weakness. I'd...

David Blennerhassett