IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

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Event-Driven

HOGY MEDICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and sells medical supply and related products including sterilized tools and disposable injectors and masks used by surgeons.

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<li>
<a target="_blank">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from Carlyle at JPY6,700, a 2.1% premium to the last close and a 69.2% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The offer, resulting from an auction, represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. </li>
<li>Dalton (27.58% ownership ratio) has provided an irrevocable and will reinvest to take a 20% stake in the relevant Carlyle Fund. This is a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Carlyle at JPY6,700, a 2.1% premium to the last close and a 69.2% premium to the undisturbed price.
The offer, resulting from an auction, represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. 
Dalton (27.58% ownership ratio) has provided an irrevocable and will reinvest to take a 20% stake in the relevant Carlyle Fund. This is a done deal. 


Hogy Medical (3593 JP): After Months of Speculation, Carlyle Lobs a Tender Offer at JPY6,700

ANE (Cayman) Inc. operates as an integrated logistics company. The Company provides sorting, line-haul transportation, pickup and dispatch services, and other services. ANE (Cayman) offers services in China.

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)</a>’s IFA opines that the consortium’s offer of cash (HK$12.18 per share) or scrip is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 9 January. </li>
<li>The consortium's decision on 4 December not to raise the share alternative cap from 5.00% to 7.50% of outstanding shares is a red flag, casting doubt on the vote's success. </li>
<li>The lack of irrevocables from Mr Wang Yongjun and CDH adds to the uncertainty. Therefore, caution is warranted due to an unfavourable risk/reward profile. </li>
</ul>



ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)’s IFA opines that the consortium’s offer of cash (HK$12.18 per share) or scrip is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 9 January. 
The consortium's decision on 4 December not to raise the share alternative cap from 5.00% to 7.50% of outstanding shares is a red flag, casting doubt on the vote's success. 
The lack of irrevocables from Mr Wang Yongjun and CDH adds to the uncertainty. Therefore, caution is warranted due to an unfavourable risk/reward profile. 


ANE (9956 HK): Uncertainty Ahead of the Scheme Vote on 9 January

Humm Group Limited provides consumer finance solutions. This Company offers product ecosystem of buy now pay later, credit cards, and business financing. Humm Group serves shoppers, retailers, and small and medium enterprises in Australia, New Zealand, and Ireland.

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/humm-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35366:1" rel="noopener">Humm Group (HUM AU)</a> disclosed that on 19 November, it received an indicative proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credit-corp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12691:1" rel="noopener">Credit Corp (CCP AU)</a> consisting of a scheme (A$0.77) and an off-market takeover offer (A$0.72). </li>
<li>The scheme has a low chance of success, and the takeover offer’s 50.1% minimum acceptance condition will prove problematic. The lack of due diligence signals the Board’s reluctance to engage.</li>
<li>The tardy disclosure is primarily intended to distract from Jeremy Raper’s attempt to mount a Board spill. This is essentially a long-dated backend play on Raper successfully spilling the Board.   </li>
</ul>



Humm Group (HUM AU) disclosed that on 19 November, it received an indicative proposal from Credit Corp (CCP AU) consisting of a scheme (A$0.77) and an off-market takeover offer (A$0.72). 
The scheme has a low chance of success, and the takeover offer’s 50.1% minimum acceptance condition will prove problematic. The lack of due diligence signals the Board’s reluctance to engage.
The tardy disclosure is primarily intended to distract from Jeremy Raper’s attempt to mount a Board spill. This is essentially a long-dated backend play on Raper successfully spilling the Board.   


Humm Group (HUM AU): Credit Corp’s NBIO Belatedly Disclosed to Distract from a Potential Board Spill

Equity Capital Markets

SBI Shinsei Bank / Equity Capital Markets

SBI Shinsei Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transaction, as well as investment trust service and issuance of long-term bonds.

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> is a Japanese financial institution. At the IPO price, it will raise JPY322 billion (US$2.1 billion). The shares will be listed on 17 December.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sbi-shinsei-bank-8303-jp-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:211376" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: The Investment Case</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sbi-shinsei-bank-8303-jp-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:211514" rel="noopener"> </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sbi-shinsei-bank-8303-jp-ipo-price-range-is-attractive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:212880" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Attractive</a>.</li>
<li>The peers have re-rated since the prospectus was released. My analysis suggests that SBI Shinsei is attractively valued at the IPO price.</li>
</ul>



SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) is a Japanese financial institution. At the IPO price, it will raise JPY322 billion (US$2.1 billion). The shares will be listed on 17 December.
I previously discussed the IPO in SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: The Investment Case and SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Attractive.
The peers have re-rated since the prospectus was released. My analysis suggests that SBI Shinsei is attractively valued at the IPO price.


SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Trading Debut

Medical Data Vision Co.,Ltd. was founded in 2003. The company's line of business includes developing integrated medical information systems, analysis of medical information, and business consulting for medical institutions.

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medical-data-vision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8367:1" rel="noopener">Medical Data Vision (3902 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from Nippon Life at JPY1,693, a 212.4% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>The substantial takeover premium reflects the outcome of an auction and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> willingness to share TOB tax benefits with minority shareholders. </li>
<li>The substantial takeover premium also ensures that this is a done deal. The tender closes on 3 February, with payment commencing from 9 February. </li>
</ul>



Medical Data Vision (3902 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Nippon Life at JPY1,693, a 212.4% premium to the last close.
The substantial takeover premium reflects the outcome of an auction and SBI Holdings (8473 JP) willingness to share TOB tax benefits with minority shareholders. 
The substantial takeover premium also ensures that this is a done deal. The tender closes on 3 February, with payment commencing from 9 February. 


Medical Data Vision (3902 JP): Nippon Life’s Tender Offer at JPY1,693 (3x Last Close)

Arun has over 15 years’ experience covering the Technology sector. During this time, he has worked with technology start-ups and as an equity analyst in investment banks and independent research firms. He was formerly a Technology Analyst for Canaccord Genuity, Altium Securities, Espirito Santo Investment Bank, Noble Group and Clear Capital. He has a dual Master’s degree in Financial Engineering and Industrial and Operations Engineering from the University of Michigan. He obtained his Bachelor’s degree in Mechanical Engineering from the Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. He is also a CFA charterholder.

Arun George
IPOs and Catalysts/Events
• Global Equity Research Ltd

Hogy Medical (3593 JP): After Months of Speculation, Carlyle Lobs a Tender Offer at JPY6,700

The offer, resulting from an auction, represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. Dalton has provided an...

Arun George

ANE (9956 HK): Uncertainty Ahead of the Scheme Vote on 9 January

The decision not to raise the share cap and the lack of irrevocables from shareholders with blocking stakes cast doubt on the vote's success. A...

Arun George

Humm Group (HUM AU): Credit Corp’s NBIO Belatedly Disclosed to Distract from a Potential Board Spill

A binding proposal, if forthcoming at current terms, is unlikely to succeed. Humm is essentially a long-dated backend play on Jeremy Raper's...

Arun George

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Trading Debut

The peers have re-rated since the prospectus was released. My analysis suggests that SBI Shinsei is attractively valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

Medical Data Vision (3902 JP): Nippon Life’s Tender Offer at JPY1,693 (3x Last Close)

The substantial takeover premium reflects the outcome of an auction and SBI Holdings' willingness to share TOB tax benefits with minority...

Arun George