IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

ESR Group Limited operates as an integrated logistics real estate platform. The Company provides real estate private equity fund management, real estate investment trust, and other services. ESR Group conducts businesses in China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Singapore, India, New Zealand, and other countries.

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a>’s preconditional scheme offer from the consortium is either cash (HK$13.00), scrip or a combination of cash/scrip. The offer is final.</li>
<li>On 7 March, the consortium disclosed two additional irrevocable (3.47% of outstanding shares) and satisfied two regulatory preconditions (UK FCA and Singapore MAS).</li>
<li>Since announcing the offer, peers have materially derated, lowering the vote risk. At the last close and for an end August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.5%/10.1%</li>
</ul>



ESR Group (1821 HK)’s preconditional scheme offer from the consortium is either cash (HK$13.00), scrip or a combination of cash/scrip. The offer is final.
On 7 March, the consortium disclosed two additional irrevocable (3.47% of outstanding shares) and satisfied two regulatory preconditions (UK FCA and Singapore MAS).
Since announcing the offer, peers have materially derated, lowering the vote risk. At the last close and for an end August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.5%/10.1%


De Grey Mining Limited is an exploration and mining company focusing on zinc, gold, platinum, silver and base metals.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is 0.119 NST shares per DEG share.</li>
<li>The key condition is DEG shareholder approval. Due to the lack of a competing bid, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a>, which holds a potentially blocking stake, should support it.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 5 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/18.2%.</li>
</ul>


The De Grey Mining (DEG AU) IE considers Northern Star Resources (NST AU)’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is 0.119 NST shares per DEG share.
The key condition is DEG shareholder approval. Due to the lack of a competing bid, Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), which holds a potentially blocking stake, should support it.
The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 5 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/18.2%.


De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Scheme Vote on 16 April

Insignia Financial Ltd operates as a financial services company. The Company provides clients with a range of products and services including financial advisory, investment management, real estate, and trustee services. Insignia Financial serves customers worldwide.

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<li>On 7 March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a> disclosed a revised non-binding privatisation offer from Bain and CC Capital at A$5.00, an 8.7% premium to their previous A$4.60 offer.</li>
<li>The exclusive due diligence period ends on 17 April (six weeks from signing the exclusivity deed). The Board will recommend a binding offer of at least A$5.00. </li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent transactions. Therefore, a binding offer would gain shareholder support.</li>
</ul>


On 7 March, Insignia Financial (IFL AU) disclosed a revised non-binding privatisation offer from Bain and CC Capital at A$5.00, an 8.7% premium to their previous A$4.60 offer.
The exclusive due diligence period ends on 17 April (six weeks from signing the exclusivity deed). The Board will recommend a binding offer of at least A$5.00. 
The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent transactions. Therefore, a binding offer would gain shareholder support.


Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain and CC Capital Bumps to A$5.00, While Brookfield Drops Out

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

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<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> Board has released a public letter to address <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/03/09/3039396/0/en/Artisan-Partners-International-Value-Group-Sends-Letter-to-the-Board-of-Seven-i.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Artisan Partners’ letter</a> and provide more details on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)</a> constructive engagement. </li>
<li>The letter effectively addresses most of Artisan’s concerns. The Board is engaging with Couche-Tard, particularly by agreeing on a strategy to find a solution to secure antitrust approvals. </li>
<li>However, the statement suggests that the Board retains deep scepticism that the Couche-Tard is viable and is manoeuvring to shift the blame on a failed bid on a flawed proposal. </li>
</ul>


The Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) Board has released a public letter to address Artisan Partners’ letter and provide more details on the Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) constructive engagement. 
The letter effectively addresses most of Artisan’s concerns. The Board is engaging with Couche-Tard, particularly by agreeing on a strategy to find a solution to secure antitrust approvals. 
However, the statement suggests that the Board retains deep scepticism that the Couche-Tard is viable and is manoeuvring to shift the blame on a failed bid on a flawed proposal. 


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Reading Between the Lines of the Public Letter

Makino Milling Machine Co., Ltd. manufactures, sells, and repairs machining centers (MCs), electrical dischargers, numerical control (NC) milling machines, and other related industrial machinery.  The Company also produces die/mold manufacturing systems as well as Computer Aided Manufacturing (CAM) and Computer Aided Design (CAD) systems software to support its machine tools.

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a> has disclosed that it has received initial letters of intent from multiple third parties, reportedly private equity funds, to launch a competing tender offer.</li>
<li>My analysis suggests that a white knight bid could be as high as JPY13,284, 20.8% higher than Nidec’s JPY11,000 offer and 10.2% higher than the last close price of JPY12,050.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec Corp (6594 JP)</a> will take a wait-and-see approach. However, regardless of whether a white knight bidder emerges, Nidec will eventually have to bump.</li>
</ul>



Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) has disclosed that it has received initial letters of intent from multiple third parties, reportedly private equity funds, to launch a competing tender offer.
My analysis suggests that a white knight bid could be as high as JPY13,284, 20.8% higher than Nidec’s JPY11,000 offer and 10.2% higher than the last close price of JPY12,050.

Nidec Corp (6594 JP) will take a wait-and-see approach. However, regardless of whether a white knight bidder emerges, Nidec will eventually have to bump.


Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): A White Knight Bidder Is Emerging

Arun has over 15 years’ experience covering the Technology sector. During this time, he has worked with technology start-ups and as an equity analyst in investment banks and independent research firms. He was formerly a Technology Analyst for Canaccord Genuity, Altium Securities, Espirito Santo Investment Bank, Noble Group and Clear Capital. He has a dual Master’s degree in Financial Engineering and Industrial and Operations Engineering from the University of Michigan. He obtained his Bachelor’s degree in Mechanical Engineering from the Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. He is also a CFA charterholder.

Arun George
IPOs and Catalysts/Events
• Global Equity Research Ltd

ESR Group (1821 HK): Steady Progress

The additional irrevocable and material derating of peers lowers the vote risk. The consortium is making steady progress in satisfying the...

Arun George

De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Scheme Vote on 16 April

The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 5 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/18.2%.

Arun George

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain and CC Capital Bumps to A$5.00, While Brookfield Drops Out

The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent transactions. The presence of two bidders increases the...

Arun George

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Reading Between the Lines of the Public Letter

The letter addresses most of Artisan's concerns. Concerning the Couche-Tard offer, the letter projects constructive engagement on the surface but...

Arun George

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): A White Knight Bidder Is Emerging

My analysis suggests that a white knight bid could be as high as JPY13,284, 20.8% higher than Nidec’s JPY11,000 offer and 10.2% higher than the...

Arun George