Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

<ul>
<li>Reportedly, Ito Junro's MBO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a> includes a US assets IPO to help pay down MBO debt to Japanese banks.  Possible strategic mistake by Ito-san here.</li>
<li>Starwood/Warburg Pincus' firm Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a> secures support from 30.79% of the register.</li>
<li>We may be wrong on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanrio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16476:1" rel="noopener">Sanrio (8136 JP)</a> by a big factor but the multiple and the concentration risk of momentum factor means you are in an illiquid stock.</li>
</ul>


Reportedly, Ito Junro's MBO for Seven &amp; I (3382 JP) includes a US assets IPO to help pay down MBO debt to Japanese banks.  Possible strategic mistake by Ito-san here.
Starwood/Warburg Pincus' firm Offer for ESR Group (1821 HK) secures support from 30.79% of the register.
We may be wrong on Sanrio (8136 JP) by a big factor but the multiple and the concentration risk of momentum factor means you are in an illiquid stock.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I Holdings, ESR Group, Sanrio, HKBN

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. provides passenger rail and bus transportation services in the Metropolitan Tokyo and Chiba prefecture areas.  The Company operates department and supermarket stores, hotels, travel agents, movie theater and restaurants, and sells, leases, and maintains real estate.  Keisei Electric is a shareholder of Oriental Land Co., Ltd. which operates Tokyo Disneyland.

<ul>
<li>Remain BULLISH <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) </a> with low conviction. This is buying on narrative rather than fundamentals but there is no need to not get involved.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vitasoy-intl-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2807:1" rel="noopener">Vitasoy Intl Holdings (345 HK)</a>'s share price run up is excessive as Philip Ng and<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yeo-hiap-seng-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9051:1" rel="noopener">Yeo Hiap Seng (YHS SP)</a> over-extend their hand.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-networks-system-integr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16396:1" rel="noopener">Nec Networks (1973 JP)</a> has yet to trade below terms. The premium is small, perhaps reflecting the risk NEC will lower the minimum threshold. But there is still a fight here.</li>
</ul>


Remain BULLISH Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)  with low conviction. This is buying on narrative rather than fundamentals but there is no need to not get involved.

Vitasoy Intl Holdings (345 HK)'s share price run up is excessive as Philip Ng andYeo Hiap Seng (YHS SP) over-extend their hand.

Nec Networks (1973 JP) has yet to trade below terms. The premium is small, perhaps reflecting the risk NEC will lower the minimum threshold. But there is still a fight here.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric Railway, Vitasoy, NEC Network, ESR Group

<ul>
<li>At equal price to ACT, Ito-san wins because of certainty/immediacy, but provided his price is above the bottom of the range and adequately compensates 7&amp;i for "additional actionable avenues."</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amcor-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:674:1" rel="noopener">Amcor Limited (AMC AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berry-global-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9428:1" rel="noopener">Berry Global Group (BERY US)</a> merger looks clean. However, Berry's % of earnings (revs, EBITDA, and profit), are higher than the % under the share split</li>
<li>This Temasek-led development will have a marginal impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tuya-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32158:1" rel="noopener">Tuya Inc (TUYA US)</a>. Creating supply and demand is hard. And Temasek-held/backed vehicles on the SGX are already abundant.</li>
</ul>


At equal price to ACT, Ito-san wins because of certainty/immediacy, but provided his price is above the bottom of the range and adequately compensates 7&amp;i for "additional actionable avenues."
The Amcor Limited (AMC AU)/Berry Global Group (BERY US) merger looks clean. However, Berry's % of earnings (revs, EBITDA, and profit), are higher than the % under the share split
This Temasek-led development will have a marginal impact on Tuya Inc (TUYA US). Creating supply and demand is hard. And Temasek-held/backed vehicles on the SGX are already abundant.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, Amcor/Berry, WH Group/Smithfield, Tuya

<ul>
<li>There are people who'll take profit in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a> because of path dependency til year-end. It will drag out a while: buy the dips, trim on pops.</li>
<li>Just like in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lufax-holding-ltd-b751749a-8feb-4b4d-85a7-d99ac0308fe7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40067:1" rel="noopener">Lufax Holding (6623 HK)</a>'s special dividend, expect Ping An to boost its holding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)</a> via the stealthy scrip dividend option. </li>
<li>The landscape for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-networks-system-integr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16396:1" rel="noopener">Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP)</a> has FULLY changed. The details now matter quite a bit. NEC has two basic choices. Neither are that palatable.  </li>
</ul>


There are people who'll take profit in Seven &amp; I (3382 JP) because of path dependency til year-end. It will drag out a while: buy the dips, trim on pops.
Just like in Lufax Holding (6623 HK)'s special dividend, expect Ping An to boost its holding in Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) via the stealthy scrip dividend option. 
The landscape for Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP) has FULLY changed. The details now matter quite a bit. NEC has two basic choices. Neither are that palatable.  


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, PA Gooddoctor, Nec Networks, Genscript/Legend, ASM PT, Hanwha

Travis Lundy

China International Capital Corporation / Event-Driven

China International Capital Corporation Ltd. (CICC) operates as an international investment bank. The Company provides financial services, including investment banking, capital markets, securities sales and trading, fixed income, asset management, and private equity. China International Capital also offers individual wealth management and research services.

China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)

<ul>
<li>Huge volumes continue to be traded on the mainland share markets. SOUTHBOUND volumes bounced, and net buying was both large and broad-based.</li>
<li>Stocks in HK and mainland markets fell heavily with HK's main indices down 6-7% and China's blue chip indices down 3.3-3.6% (CSI 500 - 4.8%). </li>
<li>Within H/A Pairs, after outperforming the HK/mainland spread for weeks, spreads got shellacked. Worst week in a long time (-3.7%), perhaps on the back of "disappointing" lack of stimulus measures.</li>
</ul>


Huge volumes continue to be traded on the mainland share markets. SOUTHBOUND volumes bounced, and net buying was both large and broad-based.
Stocks in HK and mainland markets fell heavily with HK's main indices down 6-7% and China's blue chip indices down 3.3-3.6% (CSI 500 - 4.8%). 
Within H/A Pairs, after outperforming the HK/mainland spread for weeks, spreads got shellacked. Worst week in a long time (-3.7%), perhaps on the back of "disappointing" lack of stimulus measures.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Nov 2024): AH Premia Rise Sharply; Hs Shellacked Vs As In Most Sectors

Unpaywalled Event-Driven
Unpaywalled Event-Driven Insights

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