Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. provides passenger rail and bus transportation services in the Metropolitan Tokyo and Chiba prefecture areas.  The Company operates department and supermarket stores, hotels, travel agents, movie theater and restaurants, and sells, leases, and maintains real estate.  Keisei Electric is a shareholder of Oriental Land Co., Ltd. which operates Tokyo Disneyland.

<ul>
<li>Palliser’s proposal failed to meet the challenging two-thirds threshold at the AGM. Given the ownership landscape, this outcome was anticipated.</li>
<li>Palliser nearing 50% approval at Keisei's AGM could signify a triumph, potentially leading to significant pressure on management and a positive shift in share price performance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s valuation, now attractively low post a 33% drop and with a potential OP guidance hike, presents minimal downside at a 26.0x EV/OP multiple.</li>
</ul>


Palliser’s proposal failed to meet the challenging two-thirds threshold at the AGM. Given the ownership landscape, this outcome was anticipated.
Palliser nearing 50% approval at Keisei's AGM could signify a triumph, potentially leading to significant pressure on management and a positive shift in share price performance.

Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s valuation, now attractively low post a 33% drop and with a potential OP guidance hike, presents minimal downside at a 26.0x EV/OP multiple.


Keisei Electric Investor Activism Update: The Vote Count Could Shake Keisei’s Board

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)</a>'s FQ4 announcement portrays a resilient comeback to growth, suggesting the past four years' challenges barely impacted its dominance in Chinese e-commerce.</li>
<li>However, a closer look beyond the surface of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a>'s FQ4 results announcement reveals that little has actually changed in recent months.</li>
<li>Taobao and Tmall face challenges in a tough, stagnant market; AIDC's growth largely covers for other Alibaba units' failings, while AliExpress's expansion cuts into margins.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)'s FQ4 announcement portrays a resilient comeback to growth, suggesting the past four years' challenges barely impacted its dominance in Chinese e-commerce.
However, a closer look beyond the surface of Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)'s FQ4 results announcement reveals that little has actually changed in recent months.
Taobao and Tmall face challenges in a tough, stagnant market; AIDC's growth largely covers for other Alibaba units' failings, while AliExpress's expansion cuts into margins.


TOYO SUISAN KAISHA, LTD. purchases, processes, and sells seafood.  The Company also manufactures instant noodles, processed foods, fish paste, and frozen food products under Maru-chan brand.

<ul>
<li>Japanese instant noodle manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-suisan-kaisha-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16752:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Suisan Kaisha (2875 JP)</a> has become the newest target for activist investors in Japan.</li>
<li>Nihon Global Growth Partners Management, Inc argues that Toyo Suisan's investments are overly concentrated in its legacy businesses, despite these ventures yielding low returns.</li>
<li>Therefore, they are recommending that Toyo Suisan exit its legacy businesses, increase the payout ratio to 40%, and use some of its excess cash for a share buyback of ¥20bn.</li>
</ul>


Japanese instant noodle manufacturer Toyo Suisan Kaisha (2875 JP) has become the newest target for activist investors in Japan.
Nihon Global Growth Partners Management, Inc argues that Toyo Suisan's investments are overly concentrated in its legacy businesses, despite these ventures yielding low returns.
Therefore, they are recommending that Toyo Suisan exit its legacy businesses, increase the payout ratio to 40%, and use some of its excess cash for a share buyback of ¥20bn.


Toyo Suisan: Activist Advocates For Legacy Divestiture & More Capital for Global Expansion

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

<ul>
<li>Value Act's recent statement might suggest that they have prevailed and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> has yielded to their demands. However, the reality might be less straightforward.</li>
<li>Value Act sought new market expansion, but Seven &amp; I is focused on reinforcing its presence in existing, well-established markets.</li>
<li>Given Value Act's impatience, their acceptance of Seven &amp; I's plan for a 2026 Super Stores IPO, contingent on a business transformation, is unexpected.</li>
</ul>


Value Act's recent statement might suggest that they have prevailed and Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) has yielded to their demands. However, the reality might be less straightforward.
Value Act sought new market expansion, but Seven &amp; I is focused on reinforcing its presence in existing, well-established markets.
Given Value Act's impatience, their acceptance of Seven &amp; I's plan for a 2026 Super Stores IPO, contingent on a business transformation, is unexpected.


Investor Activism Update: Seven & I Sets the Path in Investor Activism Battle

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

<ul>
<li>While domestic revenues may have slowed, Uniqlo's domestic OP shows upside potential driven by upside to GM and a gradual reduction in SG&amp;A expenditure.</li>
<li>Simultaneously, Uniqlo International is exhibiting strong performance, with anticipated revenue and OP growth of 21% and 30% YoY respectively.</li>
<li>Despite expecting a strong earnings beat, concerns over high valuations and index issues make us cautious about trading <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> in the current earnings cycle.</li>
</ul>


While domestic revenues may have slowed, Uniqlo's domestic OP shows upside potential driven by upside to GM and a gradual reduction in SG&amp;A expenditure.
Simultaneously, Uniqlo International is exhibiting strong performance, with anticipated revenue and OP growth of 21% and 30% YoY respectively.
Despite expecting a strong earnings beat, concerns over high valuations and index issues make us cautious about trading Fast Retailing (9983 JP) in the current earnings cycle.


An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri
Equity Analyst
• LightStream Research

Keisei Electric Investor Activism Update: The Vote Count Could Shake Keisei’s Board

Palliser's failed proposal at Keisei's AGM was expected due to ownership landscape. However, near 50% approval could lead to pressure on...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Alibaba: Our Take on 4QFY24

Taobao and Tmall face challenges in a tough, stagnant market; AIDC's growth largely covers for other Alibaba units' failings, while AliExpress's...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Toyo Suisan: Activist Advocates For Legacy Divestiture & More Capital for Global Expansion

Nihon Global Growth Partners urges Toyo Suisan to exit low-return legacy businesses, boost payout ratio to 40%, and initiate a ¥20bn share buyback.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Investor Activism Update: Seven & I Sets the Path in Investor Activism Battle

To us, it seems that instead of merely capitulating to Value Act's demands, Seven & I is strategically dictating the terms, with Value Act...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Fast Retailing: Earnings Preview

Despite expecting a strong earnings beat, concerns over high valuations and index issues make us cautious about trading Fast Retailing in the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Keisei Electric Investor Activism Update: The Vote Count Could Shake Keisei’s Board

​Palliser's failed proposal at Keisei's AGM was expected due to ownership landscape. However, near 50% approval could lead to pressure on...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Alibaba: Our Take on 4QFY24

Taobao and Tmall face challenges in a tough, stagnant market; AIDC's growth largely covers for other Alibaba units' failings, while AliExpress's...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Toyo Suisan: Activist Advocates For Legacy Divestiture & More Capital for Global Expansion

Nihon Global Growth Partners urges Toyo Suisan to exit low-return legacy businesses, boost payout ratio to 40%, and initiate a ¥20bn share buyback.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Investor Activism Update: Seven & I Sets the Path in Investor Activism Battle

To us, it seems that instead of merely capitulating to Value Act's demands, Seven & I is strategically dictating the terms, with Value Act...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Fast Retailing: Earnings Preview

Despite expecting a strong earnings beat, concerns over high valuations and index issues make us cautious about trading Fast Retailing in the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Palliser's failed proposal at Keisei's AGM was expected due to ownership landscape. However, near 50% approval could lead to pressure on...