Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Adastria Co., Ltd. operates a chain of clothing stores in Japan. The Company also operates stores in China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Korea.

<ul>
<li>Adastria’s “5th CHANGE” outlines a strategic pivot from specialty retail to a platform model aimed at scaling across brands, categories, and geographies while navigating domestic headwinds and evolving consumer behaviors.</li>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adastria-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11895:1" rel="noopener">Adastria Co Ltd (2685 JP)</a>’s narrative emphasizes transformation, actual targets for user growth and GMV expansion appear modest, suggesting limited operational changes.</li>
<li>Despite mixed views on the mid-term plan, we remain optimistic on Adastria. Gross margin normalization could drive meaningful OP upside, potentially surpassing mid-term plan targets.</li>
</ul>


Adastria’s “5th CHANGE” outlines a strategic pivot from specialty retail to a platform model aimed at scaling across brands, categories, and geographies while navigating domestic headwinds and evolving consumer behaviors.
While Adastria Co Ltd (2685 JP)’s narrative emphasizes transformation, actual targets for user growth and GMV expansion appear modest, suggesting limited operational changes.
Despite mixed views on the mid-term plan, we remain optimistic on Adastria. Gross margin normalization could drive meaningful OP upside, potentially surpassing mid-term plan targets.


Adastria: Cautious on the Platform Narrative, But Optimistic on Margins and Valuation Rebound

Event-Driven

Sapporo Holdings Ltd produces and sells alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages.  The Company's products include beer, wine, brandy, whiskey, imported beer, soft drinks, juice, coffee, and tea.  SAPPORO HOLDINGS also operates real estate businesses.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sapporo-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14085:1" rel="noopener">Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)</a>’s beer, food, and soft drinks businesses are now trading near 19.0x our 2025 OP estimate, suggesting some remaining upside, especially if guidance is revised upward.</li>
<li>We believe the company’s 2025 guidance is overly conservative, as Sapporo stands to benefit the most from Japan’s liquor tax revisions.</li>
<li>If growth momentum persists, we estimate 2025 OP could reach ¥22.3bn, surpassing the current ¥17.5bn guidance, though the 300% upside driven by investor activism has mostly run its course.</li>
</ul>



Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)’s beer, food, and soft drinks businesses are now trading near 19.0x our 2025 OP estimate, suggesting some remaining upside, especially if guidance is revised upward.
We believe the company’s 2025 guidance is overly conservative, as Sapporo stands to benefit the most from Japan’s liquor tax revisions.
If growth momentum persists, we estimate 2025 OP could reach ¥22.3bn, surpassing the current ¥17.5bn guidance, though the 300% upside driven by investor activism has mostly run its course.


Sapporo's 2025 Potential Holds Limited Upside After Investor Activism's 300% Gains

Japan Eyewear Holdings Co. Ltd. manufactures and distributes optical goods. The Company produces and sells luxury glasses and other products. Japan Eyewear Holdings markets its products worldwide.

<ul>
<li>On February 14, 2025, JEH announced the cancellation of its planned share offering and withdrew its Prime Market listing application due to a potential insider trading violation involving an executive.</li>
<li>While the news may trigger a sharp correction in the stock, JEH's core business remains strong, driven by pricing power, expansion opportunities, and growing inbound demand.</li>
<li>If governance concerns are effectively addressed, the stock could offer a compelling buy-and-hold opportunity once market sentiment stabilizes.</li>
</ul>


On February 14, 2025, JEH announced the cancellation of its planned share offering and withdrew its Prime Market listing application due to a potential insider trading violation involving an executive.
While the news may trigger a sharp correction in the stock, JEH's core business remains strong, driven by pricing power, expansion opportunities, and growing inbound demand.
If governance concerns are effectively addressed, the stock could offer a compelling buy-and-hold opportunity once market sentiment stabilizes.


Japan Eyewear Holdings: A Short-Term Setback, Long-Term Opportunity?

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. provides passenger rail and bus transportation services in the Metropolitan Tokyo and Chiba prefecture areas.  The Company operates department and supermarket stores, hotels, travel agents, movie theater and restaurants, and sells, leases, and maintains real estate.  Keisei Electric is a shareholder of Oriental Land Co., Ltd. which operates Tokyo Disneyland.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> rose 14% after reports that a fund linked to activist investor Murakami bought a stake, while Oriental Land also gained 2.9% in a volatile market.</li>
<li>Down 50% since February 2024, Keisei Electric seems to have limited downside risks. We believe its valuation could increase if Murakami’s stake leads to activism.</li>
<li>The long Keisei Electric, short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> trade could work well too, especially if Murakami’s activism and the risks to Oriental Land’s guidance materialize.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) rose 14% after reports that a fund linked to activist investor Murakami bought a stake, while Oriental Land also gained 2.9% in a volatile market.
Down 50% since February 2024, Keisei Electric seems to have limited downside risks. We believe its valuation could increase if Murakami’s stake leads to activism.
The long Keisei Electric, short Oriental Land (4661 JP) trade could work well too, especially if Murakami’s activism and the risks to Oriental Land’s guidance materialize.


Keisei Electric Jumps 14% on Reports of Murakami Stake

Equity Capital Markets

Tokyo Metro Co., Ltd. operates railway businesses. The Company conducts passenger rail transportation, urban design and lifestyle creation, real estate, and other projects. Tokyo Metro serves customers in Japan.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-metro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40930:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)</a> operates 9 out of the 14 subway lines that provides essential public transportation services within the Greater Tokyo area. </li>
<li>Many are unaware of Tokyo Metro’s cost savings, and we believe it could reach ¥110bn OP, exceeding the ¥100bn OP that most currently expect.</li>
<li>Even without factoring in the cost savings, the indicative IPO price appears reasonably cheap, as it’s priced near the lower end of peer multiples.</li>
</ul>



Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) operates 9 out of the 14 subway lines that provides essential public transportation services within the Greater Tokyo area. 
Many are unaware of Tokyo Metro’s cost savings, and we believe it could reach ¥110bn OP, exceeding the ¥100bn OP that most currently expect.
Even without factoring in the cost savings, the indicative IPO price appears reasonably cheap, as it’s priced near the lower end of peer multiples.


Tokyo Metro IPO: Steady Tracks with Potential for OP Growth Through Fixed Cost Savings

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri
Equity Analyst
• LightStream Research

Adastria: Cautious on the Platform Narrative, But Optimistic on Margins and Valuation Rebound

Adastria shifts from specialty retail to platform model, with modest growth targets but potential for operational improvement and profit upside.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Sapporo's 2025 Potential Holds Limited Upside After Investor Activism's 300% Gains

The 300% upside driven by investor activism is nearing its conclusion, though some upside remains from potential revisions to earnings guidance.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan Eyewear Holdings: A Short-Term Setback, Long-Term Opportunity?

JEH cancels share offering and withdraws listing application due to insider trading violation, but core business remains strong with potential for...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Keisei Electric Jumps 14% on Reports of Murakami Stake

Activist investor Murakami's stake in Keisei Electric Railway leads to a 14% rise in share price, with potential for multiples to expand due to...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Tokyo Metro IPO: Steady Tracks with Potential for OP Growth Through Fixed Cost Savings

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) could exceed expectations with cost savings, reaching ¥110bn OP, making its IPO price appear cheap compared to peers.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Adastria: Cautious on the Platform Narrative, But Optimistic on Margins and Valuation Rebound

​Adastria shifts from specialty retail to platform model, with modest growth targets but potential for operational improvement and profit upside.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Sapporo's 2025 Potential Holds Limited Upside After Investor Activism's 300% Gains

The 300% upside driven by investor activism is nearing its conclusion, though some upside remains from potential revisions to earnings guidance.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan Eyewear Holdings: A Short-Term Setback, Long-Term Opportunity?

​JEH cancels share offering and withdraws listing application due to insider trading violation, but core business remains strong with potential for...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Keisei Electric Jumps 14% on Reports of Murakami Stake

​Activist investor Murakami's stake in Keisei Electric Railway leads to a 14% rise in share price, with potential for multiples to expand due to...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Tokyo Metro IPO: Steady Tracks with Potential for OP Growth Through Fixed Cost Savings

​Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) could exceed expectations with cost savings, reaching ¥110bn OP, making its IPO price appear cheap compared to peers.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Adastria shifts from specialty retail to platform model, with modest growth targets but potential for operational improvement and profit upside.

JEH cancels share offering and withdraws listing application due to insider trading violation, but core business remains strong with potential for...

Activist investor Murakami's stake in Keisei Electric Railway leads to a 14% rise in share price, with potential for multiples to expand due to...

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) could exceed expectations with cost savings, reaching ¥110bn OP, making its IPO price appear cheap compared to peers.