Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Sapporo Holdings: Activist Investor 3D Investment Partners Assumes Majority Ownership

2024 High Conviction: Sapporo Poised for a Strong Year Driven by Tax Revision & Investor Activism

Sapporo Holdings: Investor Activism Sparks Short-Term Gains, Tax Reforms Ensure Long-Term Success

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sapporo-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14085:1" rel="noopener">Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)</a>’s beer, food, and soft drinks businesses are now trading near 19.0x our 2025 OP estimate, suggesting some remaining upside, especially if guidance is revised upward.</li>
<li>We believe the company’s 2025 guidance is overly conservative, as Sapporo stands to benefit the most from Japan’s liquor tax revisions.</li>
<li>If growth momentum persists, we estimate 2025 OP could reach ¥22.3bn, surpassing the current ¥17.5bn guidance, though the 300% upside driven by investor activism has mostly run its course.</li>
</ul>



Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)’s beer, food, and soft drinks businesses are now trading near 19.0x our 2025 OP estimate, suggesting some remaining upside, especially if guidance is revised upward.
We believe the company’s 2025 guidance is overly conservative, as Sapporo stands to benefit the most from Japan’s liquor tax revisions.
If growth momentum persists, we estimate 2025 OP could reach ¥22.3bn, surpassing the current ¥17.5bn guidance, though the 300% upside driven by investor activism has mostly run its course.


Sapporo's 2025 Potential Holds Limited Upside After Investor Activism's 300% Gains