IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/get-nice-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29667:1" rel="noopener">Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renewable-japan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35211:1" rel="noopener">Renewable Japan (9522 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-networks-system-integr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16396:1" rel="noopener">Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xingda-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17836:1" rel="noopener">Xingda International (1899 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elematec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2866:1" rel="noopener">Elematec Corp (2715 JP)</a>. 
</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU). 
Lowest spreads: Renewable Japan (9522 JP), Macromill, Inc (3978 JP), Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Xingda International (1899 HK), Elematec Corp (2715 JP). 



Merger Arb Mondays (25 Nov) - Seven & I, Fuji Soft, ID&EH, Arcadium, Henlius, Canvest, GAPack

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>At equal price to ACT, Ito-san wins because of certainty/immediacy, but provided his price is above the bottom of the range and adequately compensates 7&amp;i for "additional actionable avenues."</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amcor-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:674:1" rel="noopener">Amcor Limited (AMC AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berry-global-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9428:1" rel="noopener">Berry Global Group (BERY US)</a> merger looks clean. However, Berry's % of earnings (revs, EBITDA, and profit), are higher than the % under the share split</li>
<li>This Temasek-led development will have a marginal impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tuya-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32158:1" rel="noopener">Tuya Inc (TUYA US)</a>. Creating supply and demand is hard. And Temasek-held/backed vehicles on the SGX are already abundant.</li>
</ul>


At equal price to ACT, Ito-san wins because of certainty/immediacy, but provided his price is above the bottom of the range and adequately compensates 7&amp;i for "additional actionable avenues."
The Amcor Limited (AMC AU)/Berry Global Group (BERY US) merger looks clean. However, Berry's % of earnings (revs, EBITDA, and profit), are higher than the % under the share split
This Temasek-led development will have a marginal impact on Tuya Inc (TUYA US). Creating supply and demand is hard. And Temasek-held/backed vehicles on the SGX are already abundant.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, Amcor/Berry, WH Group/Smithfield, Tuya

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>Seven Eleven's future usually gets outlined as: Japan ex-growth and only growth is overseas. This is wrong. While the CVS sector is saturated, Seven Eleven itself has not reached saturation.</li>
<li>There are major areas of growth, both territorially and new offshoot businesses.  Seven is already 32% more efficient than Lawson but more to come.</li>
<li>Here we take a deep dive into the state of CVS retailing in Japan and how Seven Eleven does, and will, fit into this – and how it will grow.</li>
</ul>


Seven Eleven's future usually gets outlined as: Japan ex-growth and only growth is overseas. This is wrong. While the CVS sector is saturated, Seven Eleven itself has not reached saturation.
There are major areas of growth, both territorially and new offshoot businesses.  Seven is already 32% more efficient than Lawson but more to come.
Here we take a deep dive into the state of CVS retailing in Japan and how Seven Eleven does, and will, fit into this – and how it will grow.


Even in Japan, Significant Growth Potential for Seven Eleven and Other CVS

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> did not dispute the <a href="https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20241119/k10014643321000.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NHK article’s</a> claims that the founding family aims to raise buyout funds by the end of the fiscal year.</li>
<li>Since 13 November, there have been conflicting press reports on the MBO offer price. The NHK article’s implied offer price of JPY3,082 seems the most credible. </li>
<li>The MBO’s aggressive completion timeline pressures <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)</a> to respond by either overbidding, working with the founding family at the back-end or walking away.</li>
</ul>



Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) did not dispute the NHK article’s claims that the founding family aims to raise buyout funds by the end of the fiscal year.
Since 13 November, there have been conflicting press reports on the MBO offer price. The NHK article’s implied offer price of JPY3,082 seems the most credible. 
The MBO’s aggressive completion timeline pressures Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) to respond by either overbidding, working with the founding family at the back-end or walking away.


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Evaluating the Potential MBO

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Days ago we got a dramatic headline about Ito family scion ITO Junro and his family company Ito Kogyo making a bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The stock popped, then fell. Details were not clear. Was the ¥9trln an EV number? A market cap? Was he serious? How would he get funding. Skepticism was rife. </li>
<li>Today we get more headlines from NHK. who says the family wants to raise ¥8trln to take 7&amp;i private by end-Feb 2025.</li>
</ul>


Days ago we got a dramatic headline about Ito family scion ITO Junro and his family company Ito Kogyo making a bid for Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP). 
The stock popped, then fell. Details were not clear. Was the ¥9trln an EV number? A market cap? Was he serious? How would he get funding. Skepticism was rife. 
Today we get more headlines from NHK. who says the family wants to raise ¥8trln to take 7&amp;i private by end-Feb 2025.


7&I (3382) Ito Family MBO - New Urgency for ACT

Japan

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

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Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)

Merger Arb Mondays (25 Nov) - Seven & I, Fuji Soft, ID&EH, Arcadium, Henlius, Canvest, GAPack

This week, the highest gross spreads are Henlius (21.5%), Canvest (13.7%), Get Nice Financial (13.3%), Shinko Electric (12.7%), Arcadium Lithium...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, Amcor/Berry, WH Group/Smithfield, Tuya

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Even in Japan, Significant Growth Potential for Seven Eleven and Other CVS

Contrary to popular belief, Seven Eleven in Japan is not saturated and has room for growth both territorially and new ventures. We look at Seven's...

Michael Causton