Event-Driven Investment Opportunities, Special Situation Investments

Special Situation Investments

Event-Driven Investment Opportunities

Focus on event-driven trades and low risk arbitrage opportunities with short term catalysts

Event-Driven

Niox Group PLC operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company develops treatments and medicines for asthma diagnosis and management. Niox Group serves customers worldwide.

<ul><li>NIOX Group received a non-binding takeover proposal from Keensight Capital at 81p/share, with a 9% spread.</li><li>NIOX's management is open to the offer, having previously run a limited private sale process with ongoing negotiations.</li><li>Valuation at 81p/share aligns with industry standards, given NIOX's growth, profitability, and upcoming product launches.</li></ul>

NIOX Group received a non-binding takeover proposal from Keensight Capital at 81p/share, with a 9% spread.NIOX's management is open to the offer, having previously run a limited private sale process with ongoing negotiations.Valuation at 81p/share aligns with industry standards, given NIOX's growth, profitability, and upcoming product launches.

NIOX Group Faces Potential Acquisition by Keensight Capital Amid Ongoing Private Sale

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Grupo Catalana Occidente Sa / Event-Driven

Grupo Catalana Occidente, S.A., through subsidiaries, offers insurance.  The Company offers life, accident, health, automobile, marine, freight, and fire insurance.

<ul>
<li>Inocsa offers €50 per share for GCO, representing an 18.3% premium, aiming to consolidate control and delist the company from the Spanish stock exchange if thresholds are met.</li>
<li>GCO reported €623 million in FY 2024 net income, with strong solvency (242%) and leading positions in traditional and credit insurance across Spain and over 50 international markets.</li>
<li>With a fair value near €50.68/share and solid fundamentals, minority shareholders receive a full but not generous offer, lacking a typical control premium often seen in similar takeovers.</li>
</ul>


Inocsa offers €50 per share for GCO, representing an 18.3% premium, aiming to consolidate control and delist the company from the Spanish stock exchange if thresholds are met.
GCO reported €623 million in FY 2024 net income, with strong solvency (242%) and leading positions in traditional and credit insurance across Spain and over 50 international markets.
With a fair value near €50.68/share and solid fundamentals, minority shareholders receive a full but not generous offer, lacking a typical control premium often seen in similar takeovers.


Policy Shift: Inocsa Makes a Premium Move on Catalana Occidente

Naturgy Energy Group S.A. distributes natural gas. The Company operates gas storage facilities, as well as owns and operates a fiber optic backbone telecommunications networks. Naturgy Energy Group also markets energy management products, household gas appliances, and installs gas heating systems. Naturgy Energy serves clients worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Naturgy's 10% self-tender offer at €26.50/share offers a 3.5% premium and ~40.6% annualized return, pending CNMV approval with settlement likely by mid-May 2025.</li>
<li>Strategic negotiations may see Taqa acquire up to 29.9% from exiting funds GIP and CVC, rebalancing Naturgy’s ownership toward industrial partners and reducing geopolitical friction.</li>
<li>With treasury shares reissued, free float could rise to 21%, boosting ADTV above €12 million and enhancing index eligibility, while dividend payouts remain attractive despite temporary uplift being unsustainable.</li>
</ul>


Naturgy's 10% self-tender offer at €26.50/share offers a 3.5% premium and ~40.6% annualized return, pending CNMV approval with settlement likely by mid-May 2025.
Strategic negotiations may see Taqa acquire up to 29.9% from exiting funds GIP and CVC, rebalancing Naturgy’s ownership toward industrial partners and reducing geopolitical friction.
With treasury shares reissued, free float could rise to 21%, boosting ADTV above €12 million and enhancing index eligibility, while dividend payouts remain attractive despite temporary uplift being unsustainable.


A Power Move: Naturgy Sparks a Strategic Rebalance

Corporacion Financiera Alba, S.A. (Alba) is a holding company.  The Company holds interests in companies in the retail, media and new technologies, fixed-line and mobile telephone, Internet access, construction, and banking and financial services sectors in Spain.  The Company also owns and manages office and commercial space.

<ul>
<li>Corporación Financiera Alba’s delisting offer runs from today until April 24, 2025, offering €84.20 per share with a 0.60% gross spread and no intention to implement a squeeze-out.</li>
<li>With shares trading at €83.70 and low daily liquidity (~€1 million), the offer presents a 6.05% annualized return for investors tendering into the deal by the estimated May 2 settlement.</li>
<li>Despite a 15.6% NAV discount, arbitrage through shorting Alba’s listed assets is complex and likely only feasible for institutional investors with efficient execution and access to shorting facilities.</li>
</ul>


Corporación Financiera Alba’s delisting offer runs from today until April 24, 2025, offering €84.20 per share with a 0.60% gross spread and no intention to implement a squeeze-out.
With shares trading at €83.70 and low daily liquidity (~€1 million), the offer presents a 6.05% annualized return for investors tendering into the deal by the estimated May 2 settlement.
Despite a 15.6% NAV discount, arbitrage through shorting Alba’s listed assets is complex and likely only feasible for institutional investors with efficient execution and access to shorting facilities.


Taking Stock Off the Market: Alba’s Final Call

Saga Pure ASA is a green investment company. The Company seeks out and invests in companies with technologies that contribute to a greener future, and once invested takes an active ownership role.

<ul><li>Øystein Spetalen's 50% ownership in SAGA Pure triggers a mandatory bid, with shares trading at 1.31 NOK.</li><li>SAGA's NAV is 1.79-1.87 NOK/share, with potential value from SDSD acquisition, contrasting with the mandatory bid price.</li><li>SAGA's shareholder base is mostly retail, unlike SDSD, affecting potential bid strategies and investor expectations.</li></ul>

Øystein Spetalen's 50% ownership in SAGA Pure triggers a mandatory bid, with shares trading at 1.31 NOK.SAGA's NAV is 1.79-1.87 NOK/share, with potential value from SDSD acquisition, contrasting with the mandatory bid price.SAGA's shareholder base is mostly retail, unlike SDSD, affecting potential bid strategies and investor expectations.

Norwegian Billionaire Øystein Spetalen's Mandatory Bid for SAGA Pure

European event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

Europe Event-Driven
European event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

NIOX Group Faces Potential Acquisition by Keensight Capital Amid Ongoing Private Sale

NIOX Group received a non-binding takeover proposal from Keensight Capital at 81p/share, with a 9% spread. NIOX's management is open to the offer...

Special Situation Investments

Policy Shift: Inocsa Makes a Premium Move on Catalana Occidente

Inocsa offers €50 per share for GCO, aiming to consolidate control and delist from Spanish stock exchange if thresholds are met, despite strong...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

A Power Move: Naturgy Sparks a Strategic Rebalance

Naturgy's self-tender offer at €26.50/share aims to rebalance ownership, boost free float, and enhance index eligibility, pending CNMV approval...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Taking Stock Off the Market: Alba’s Final Call

Offer period for Alba starts toady and offers €84.20 per share in delisting offer, presenting 6.05% annualized return for investors, but arbitrage...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Norwegian Billionaire Øystein Spetalen's Mandatory Bid for SAGA Pure

Øystein Spetalen's 50% ownership in SAGA Pure triggers a mandatory bid, with shares trading at 1.31 NOK. SAGA's NAV is 1.79-1.87 NOK/share, with...

Special Situation Investments

NIOX Group Faces Potential Acquisition by Keensight Capital Amid Ongoing Private Sale

NIOX Group received a non-binding takeover proposal from Keensight Capital at 81p/share, with a 9% spread. NIOX's management is open to the offer...

Special Situation Investments

Policy Shift: Inocsa Makes a Premium Move on Catalana Occidente

​Inocsa offers €50 per share for GCO, aiming to consolidate control and delist from Spanish stock exchange if thresholds are met, despite strong...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

A Power Move: Naturgy Sparks a Strategic Rebalance

​Naturgy's self-tender offer at €26.50/share aims to rebalance ownership, boost free float, and enhance index eligibility, pending CNMV approval...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Taking Stock Off the Market: Alba’s Final Call

Offer period for Alba starts toady and offers €84.20 per share in delisting offer, presenting 6.05% annualized return for investors, but arbitrage...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Norwegian Billionaire Øystein Spetalen's Mandatory Bid for SAGA Pure

Øystein Spetalen's 50% ownership in SAGA Pure triggers a mandatory bid, with shares trading at 1.31 NOK. SAGA's NAV is 1.79-1.87 NOK/share, with...

Special Situation Investments

Inocsa offers €50 per share for GCO, aiming to consolidate control and delist from Spanish stock exchange if thresholds are met, despite strong...

Naturgy's self-tender offer at €26.50/share aims to rebalance ownership, boost free float, and enhance index eligibility, pending CNMV approval...