European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Rio Tinto plc is an international mining company. The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO AU.

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. CF Alba was delisted following conclusion of the takeover acceptance period. Discounts: GBL, 35.3% as of 2 May (vs. 37.6%);</li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 12.3% (vs. 11.2%); Industrivärden C, 9.1% (vs. 2.9%); Investor B, 5.8% (vs. 4.2%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 29.2% (vs. 31.9%); Rio DLC 25.8% (vs. 21.7%); Vivendi 40% (vs. 40.1%). </li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. CF Alba was delisted following conclusion of the takeover acceptance period. Discounts: GBL, 35.3% as of 2 May (vs. 37.6%);
Heineken Holding, 12.3% (vs. 11.2%); Industrivärden C, 9.1% (vs. 2.9%); Investor B, 5.8% (vs. 4.2%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 29.2% (vs. 31.9%); Rio DLC 25.8% (vs. 21.7%); Vivendi 40% (vs. 40.1%). 
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2025 Report

BP plc is an oil and petrochemicals company.  The Company explores for and produces oil and natural gas, refines, markets, and supplies petroleum products, generates solar energy, and manufactures and markets chemicals.  BP's chemicals include terephthalic acid, acetic acid, acrylonitrile, ethylene and polyethylene.

<ul>
<li>Shell–BP deal offers strong industrial logic, with $70B in synergies justifying a 40–50% premium while delivering robust EPS accretion and strategic energy transition alignment.</li>
<li>Regulatory hurdles are real but manageable, with anticipated divestitures in UK/EU fuel retail and limited structural issues in the U.S.</li>
<li>Multiple financing structures are viable; a 60/40 cash-stock mix preserves leverage discipline, limits dilution, and enhances deal feasibility from a risk-arb perspective.</li>
</ul>


Shell–BP deal offers strong industrial logic, with $70B in synergies justifying a 40–50% premium while delivering robust EPS accretion and strategic energy transition alignment.
Regulatory hurdles are real but manageable, with anticipated divestitures in UK/EU fuel retail and limited structural issues in the U.S.
Multiple financing structures are viable; a 60/40 cash-stock mix preserves leverage discipline, limits dilution, and enhances deal feasibility from a risk-arb perspective.


Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future

Banco de Sabadell SA attracts deposits and offers commercial banking services. The Bank offers mortgage, consumer, student, and building improvement loans, private banking services, and insurance, and sponsors Visa credit cards.  The Bank operates branches throughout Spain, elsewhere in Europe, the Caribbean, the Americas, and Asia.

<ul>
<li>CNMC approved BBVA’s bid with mild SME lending and branch access commitments. The offer now enters Phase 3, with government review and CNMV filing expected by late Q2 2025.</li>
<li>Sabadell shares trade 6.7% above the offer value, suggesting market expectation of an improved bid or deal failure. The <strong>gross spread is negative despite regulatory momentum</strong>.</li>
<li>BBVA’s CET1 would drop to 11.99% under current terms. It can raise the cash offer by €0.12–0.17/share and still stay above 11.5%, allowing room to improve the deal.</li>
</ul>


CNMC approved BBVA’s bid with mild SME lending and branch access commitments. The offer now enters Phase 3, with government review and CNMV filing expected by late Q2 2025.
Sabadell shares trade 6.7% above the offer value, suggesting market expectation of an improved bid or deal failure. The gross spread is negative despite regulatory momentum.
BBVA’s CET1 would drop to 11.99% under current terms. It can raise the cash offer by €0.12–0.17/share and still stay above 11.5%, allowing room to improve the deal.


BBVA’s Hostile Offer for Sabadell Moves into Final Phase: The Catalan Conundrum

Deliveroo PLC provides software solutions. The Company offers an online food delivery platform which allows users to order meals from partner restaurants, grocery stores, and other food suppliers. Deliveroo serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Amazon is positioned to outbid DoorDash with a 200–222p/share offer, implying a valuation based on 12.8–14.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, aligning with trade buyer precedent multiples.</li>
<li>While Amazon’s strategic fit is stronger, regulatory scrutiny from the UK CMA presents material timing and execution risks, likely pushing deal closure into Q1–Q2 2026.</li>
<li>Deliveroo shareholders face a trade-off: faster liquidity at 180p via DoorDash, or 10–23% upside with Amazon at the cost of longer timelines and political uncertainty. <strong>Long ROO LN</strong>.</li>
</ul>


Amazon is positioned to outbid DoorDash with a 200–222p/share offer, implying a valuation based on 12.8–14.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, aligning with trade buyer precedent multiples.
While Amazon’s strategic fit is stronger, regulatory scrutiny from the UK CMA presents material timing and execution risks, likely pushing deal closure into Q1–Q2 2026.
Deliveroo shareholders face a trade-off: faster liquidity at 180p via DoorDash, or 10–23% upside with Amazon at the cost of longer timelines and political uncertainty. Long ROO LN.


Prime Delivery: Amazon’s Route to Outbid DoorDash for Deliveroo

Banca Generali S.p.A. is an Italian asset gathering company targeting affluent and private clients through a network of financial advisors, private bankers and relationship managers. Banca Generali provides a full range of banking services, asset management and insurance products, combining in-house expertise with a multi-brand offer for asset management products.

<ul>
<li>Mediobanca’s €6.3bn all-share offer for Banca Generali transforms its strategic profile, shifting focus to wealth management while creating a strong industrial partnership with Generali through a stake divestment.</li>
<li>The deal offers a 4.6% gross spread and an estimated 9.4% annualized return over a six-month timeline, underpinned by €660 million synergies that exceed the acquisition premium.</li>
<li>Shareholder approval remains uncertain due to opposition from major investors Delfin and Caltagirone, making institutional support critical as Mediobanca fends off BMPS’s competing, state-aligned hostile bid.</li>
</ul>


Mediobanca’s €6.3bn all-share offer for Banca Generali transforms its strategic profile, shifting focus to wealth management while creating a strong industrial partnership with Generali through a stake divestment.
The deal offers a 4.6% gross spread and an estimated 9.4% annualized return over a six-month timeline, underpinned by €660 million synergies that exceed the acquisition premium.
Shareholder approval remains uncertain due to opposition from major investors Delfin and Caltagirone, making institutional support critical as Mediobanca fends off BMPS’s competing, state-aligned hostile bid.


A Wealth of Moves: Mediobanca Bets on Banca Generali Strength to Outflank BMPS

European event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

Europe Event-Driven
European event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. CF Alba was delisted following conclusion of the takeover acceptance period.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future

Shell’s potential bid for BP could ignite Europe’s biggest energy merger in decades—driven by $70B in synergies, strategic alignment, and a deal...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BBVA’s Hostile Offer for Sabadell Moves into Final Phase: The Catalan Conundrum

BBVA's offer for Sabadell enters its final regulatory phase. With Sabadell shares trading above the bid, the market anticipates a sweeter offer or...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Prime Delivery: Amazon’s Route to Outbid DoorDash for Deliveroo

Amazon could counter DoorDash’s bid for Deliveroo with a 200–222p offer. Strategic upside is clear, but CMA scrutiny means higher regulatory risk...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

A Wealth of Moves: Mediobanca Bets on Banca Generali Strength to Outflank BMPS

Clean 4.6% gross spread, 9%+ annualized return; hedge via Generali short; low reg risk; key event is 16 June EGM. Main risk: shareholder block via...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar