European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Soltec is a vertically integrated company in the solar PV sector well distributed globally. It has three business lines: industrial division (solar tracker manufacturer and other construction services), project development division (from greenfield to RTB or COD), and asset management division. It is a unique Industrial IPP, with differential capabilities in the industry.

<ul>
<li>Equity reset: Sponsor-led restructuring reduced debt, extended maturities to 2031 and transferred control to DVC Partners, materially lowering near-term insolvency risk but leaving execution risk high.</li>
<li>Trading: Resumption (December 19) likely volatile, with forced sellers meeting opportunistic buyers; early price action expected to reflect liquidity and positioning rather than fundamentals.</li>
<li>Valuation framework: At reopening levels, equity reflects distressed stabilisation; upside depends on margin discipline and avoiding further dilution, not on near-term growth.</li>
</ul>


Equity reset: Sponsor-led restructuring reduced debt, extended maturities to 2031 and transferred control to DVC Partners, materially lowering near-term insolvency risk but leaving execution risk high.
Trading: Resumption (December 19) likely volatile, with forced sellers meeting opportunistic buyers; early price action expected to reflect liquidity and positioning rather than fundamentals.
Valuation framework: At reopening levels, equity reflects distressed stabilisation; upside depends on margin discipline and avoiding further dilution, not on near-term growth.


Soltec: Sponsor-Led Recapitalisation, Equity Reset and Trading Resumption

Aedas Homes S.A.U. operates as a real estate developer. The Company designs homes and residential projects, as well as provides development of plots of land. Aedas Homes serves property sector in Spain.

<ul>
<li>Neinor has secured 79.2% of AEDAS, triggering a mandatory OPA at a €24.00 minimum, with CNMV approval now the only remaining step.</li>
<li>With the stock at €23.85, downside is tightly capped by the €24.00 floor, while upside depends on any CNMV-mandated “equitable price” uplift.</li>
<li>The situation is no longer binary: execution risk is minimal, and the trade now offers low-risk carry with limited but asymmetric regulatory optionality.</li>
</ul>


Neinor has secured 79.2% of AEDAS, triggering a mandatory OPA at a €24.00 minimum, with CNMV approval now the only remaining step.
With the stock at €23.85, downside is tightly capped by the €24.00 floor, while upside depends on any CNMV-mandated “equitable price” uplift.
The situation is no longer binary: execution risk is minimal, and the trade now offers low-risk carry with limited but asymmetric regulatory optionality.


Neinor-Aedas Homes: Mandatory OPA Triggered — Low-Risk Carry With CNMV Optionality

Ercros SA is an industrial company focused on the manufacture and sale of chemical and pharmaceutical products. It is listed on the Spanish Stock Exchange.  The company is divided  into three areas of activity: a business strategic unit, the intermediate chemicals division, and the pharmaceuticals division. Ecros serves clients worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Bondalti lowered the minimum acceptance threshold to &gt;50%, materially reducing execution risk and shifting the Ercros takeover into its final phase, with regulatory approvals complete and no interloper risk.</li>
<li>With Ercros closing at €3.42, the remaining spread to the €3.505 cash offer is ~2.5%, reflecting a market-implied completion probability near 90% and a high-confidence, short-dated carry profile.</li>
<li>Base-Case settlement: early to mid-February 2026 following CNMV approval and a standard acceptance period; returns are now driven by timing rather than outcome. Liquidity remains thin and sizing discipline essential.</li>
</ul>


Bondalti lowered the minimum acceptance threshold to &gt;50%, materially reducing execution risk and shifting the Ercros takeover into its final phase, with regulatory approvals complete and no interloper risk.
With Ercros closing at €3.42, the remaining spread to the €3.505 cash offer is ~2.5%, reflecting a market-implied completion probability near 90% and a high-confidence, short-dated carry profile.
Base-Case settlement: early to mid-February 2026 following CNMV approval and a standard acceptance period; returns are now driven by timing rather than outcome. Liquidity remains thin and sizing discipline essential.


Bondalti-Ercros: Acceptance Risk Removed, Deal Enters Final Execution Phase

Alphawave IP Group plc provides next generation wired connectivity technology, enabling data to travel faster, more reliably and using less power. The Company serves customers in digital infrastructure markets worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Scheme sanctioned, settlement imminent: Alphawave’s acquisition by Qualcomm has cleared all regulatory and legal hurdles. With court approval now secured, shares will delist on 19 December.</li>
<li>Spread fully closed: At a 17 Dec close of 184.6p and FX-implied offer value of ~185.07p, the deal trades at a negligible +0.26% gross spread, eliminating upside for new entrants.</li>
<li>Attractive return for early entrants: Arbitrageurs positioned around 177–179p captured ~3–4% gross return, annualizing to ~8%. Clean execution, founder alignment, and low regulatory friction supported a high-certainty event-driven trade.</li>
</ul>


Scheme sanctioned, settlement imminent: Alphawave’s acquisition by Qualcomm has cleared all regulatory and legal hurdles. With court approval now secured, shares will delist on 19 December.
Spread fully closed: At a 17 Dec close of 184.6p and FX-implied offer value of ~185.07p, the deal trades at a negligible +0.26% gross spread, eliminating upside for new entrants.
Attractive return for early entrants: Arbitrageurs positioned around 177–179p captured ~3–4% gross return, annualizing to ~8%. Clean execution, founder alignment, and low regulatory friction supported a high-certainty event-driven trade.


Qualcomm - Alphawave: Closing the Loop on a Clean Trade

MFE-MediaForEurope N.V. is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates television broadcasting, television production, signal broadcasting management, and music production businesses, as well as television stations. MFE-MediaForEurope serves customers in Europe.

<ul>
<li>December spreads were technically noisy but structurally neutral: median unchanged, dispersion high, with year-end flows interrupting—but not invalidating—ongoing convergence across Europe’s dual-class universe.</li>
<li>Marginal voting premia continue to erode where control is entrenched: Henkel, Grifols and Roche show further compression as governance risk fades and incremental voting rights lose economic relevance.</li>
<li>Nordic anomalies remain unresolved: Handelsbanken’s &gt;70% premium and SSAB’s anchored discount continue to reflect flow and structural frictions rather than voting economics, offering the clearest dispersion opportunities into 2026.</li>
</ul>


December spreads were technically noisy but structurally neutral: median unchanged, dispersion high, with year-end flows interrupting—but not invalidating—ongoing convergence across Europe’s dual-class universe.
Marginal voting premia continue to erode where control is entrenched: Henkel, Grifols and Roche show further compression as governance risk fades and incremental voting rights lose economic relevance.
Nordic anomalies remain unresolved: Handelsbanken’s &gt;70% premium and SSAB’s anchored discount continue to reflect flow and structural frictions rather than voting economics, offering the clearest dispersion opportunities into 2026.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December'25 Report

European event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits