European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Grifols S.A. develops, manufactures, and markets plasma derivatives, IV Therapy, enteral nutrition, diagnostic systems, and medical materials.

<ul>
<li>Rejected Offer: Grifols' independent committee rejected Brookfield's proposed valuation of €10.50 per Class A share €7.62 per Class B share, citing significant undervaluation of the company's long-term prospects.</li>
<li>Stakeholder Dynamics: Brookfield seeks a statutory amendment to differentiate Class A and B share prices, while opposition from Brandes (13.5% of Class B shares) and Mason complicates negotiations.</li>
<li>Financial Recovery: Grifols achieved 12% revenue growth in Q3 2024, reduced net debt to €8.1 billion, and targets a 4.5x leverage ratio by year-end, supporting improved financial stability.</li>
</ul>


Rejected Offer: Grifols' independent committee rejected Brookfield's proposed valuation of €10.50 per Class A share €7.62 per Class B share, citing significant undervaluation of the company's long-term prospects.
Stakeholder Dynamics: Brookfield seeks a statutory amendment to differentiate Class A and B share prices, while opposition from Brandes (13.5% of Class B shares) and Mason complicates negotiations.
Financial Recovery: Grifols achieved 12% revenue growth in Q3 2024, reduced net debt to €8.1 billion, and targets a 4.5x leverage ratio by year-end, supporting improved financial stability.


Lowball Non-Binding Indication from Brookfield

Nagarro SE provides information technology services. The Company offers enterprise and application lifecycle solutions, infrastructure management, digital commerce, IoT, product engineering, and consulting services. Nagarro serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nagarro-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44095:1" rel="noopener">Nagarro SE (NA9 GR)</a> is in discussions for a potential delisting and takeover, with private equity firm Warburg Pincus reportedly considering a buyout.</li>
<li>Strong Financial Growth: Q3 2024 revenue rose by 3.7% to €242.9M, with a 5.6% constant currency growth, adjusted EBITDA improving to €34.6M (14.3% of revenue).</li>
<li>Nagarro trades at a P/E ratio below peers, suggesting undervaluation despite financial resilience, strong liquid assets, and 14% stock price growth over the last eight trading days.</li>
</ul>



Nagarro SE (NA9 GR) is in discussions for a potential delisting and takeover, with private equity firm Warburg Pincus reportedly considering a buyout.
Strong Financial Growth: Q3 2024 revenue rose by 3.7% to €242.9M, with a 5.6% constant currency growth, adjusted EBITDA improving to €34.6M (14.3% of revenue).
Nagarro trades at a P/E ratio below peers, suggesting undervaluation despite financial resilience, strong liquid assets, and 14% stock price growth over the last eight trading days.


Nagarro SE: Potential Takeover Amidst Financial Growth

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, Ortex

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

Ortex

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Alliance Witan PLC is an investment trust incorporated in the United Kingdom. The aim of the Fund is to provide the core investment for those who wish to bui- ld up a long term store of increasing value. The Fund invests across all global markets and a broad range of asset classes.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-witan-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44039:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Witan (ALW LN)</a> is the main candidate for addition in Top 100 (footsie 100) replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vistry-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21858:1" rel="noopener">Vistry Group (VTY LN)</a> whose price recently plummeted more than 50%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/st-james-s-place-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22168:1" rel="noopener">St James's Place (STJ LN)</a> is the next candidate for addition in Top 100 replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22158:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Group (FRAS LN)</a> with both stocks being extremely close to the entry-exit rank.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-bank-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25601:1" rel="noopener">Metro Bank (MTRO LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/diversified-energy-co-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41329:1" rel="noopener">Diversified Energy (DEC LN)</a> are the top two addition candidates for Next 250 (footsie 250), replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pz-cussons-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22102:1" rel="noopener">PZ Cussons (PZC LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/close-brothers-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21866:1" rel="noopener">Close Brothers (CBG LN)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Alliance Witan (ALW LN) is the main candidate for addition in Top 100 (footsie 100) replacing Vistry Group (VTY LN) whose price recently plummeted more than 50%.

St James's Place (STJ LN) is the next candidate for addition in Top 100 replacing Frasers Group (FRAS LN) with both stocks being extremely close to the entry-exit rank.

Metro Bank (MTRO LN) and Diversified Energy (DEC LN) are the top two addition candidates for Next 250 (footsie 250), replacing PZ Cussons (PZC LN) and Close Brothers (CBG LN).


FOOTSIE UK December 2024 Forecasts: ALW and STJ for Top 100; MTRO and DEC for Next 250

<ul>
<li>Since mid-October, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have tightened, 9 widened). Most spreads that were already tightening, kept doing so.</li>
<li>Most spreads that were already tightening, kept doing so. Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Carlsberg, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-October, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have tightened, 9 widened). Most spreads that were already tightening, kept doing so.
Most spreads that were already tightening, kept doing so. Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Carlsberg, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November‘24 Report

Greenvolt-Energias Renovaveis / Event-Driven

Greenvolt - Energias Renovaveis, S.A. produces electricity from renewable energy sources of forest biomass. The Company provides operational renewable energy platform that develops and operates onshore wind and PV installations, as well as engages energy production from forest and urban wood residues. Greenvolt Energias Renovaveis serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Core shareholders holding 60.86% accepted KKR's €8.30/share offer, triggering a mandatory tender for minorities. Greenvolt's revised offer price (€8.3107/share) represented a 95.5% IPO premium, but faced critiques for modest value. </li>
<li>By October 25, KKR held 97.64% of Greenvolt’s share capital, surpassing the 90% threshold for a squeeze-out and delisting.</li>
<li>The delisting is expected by late 2024 or early 2025, following squeeze-out completion. Minority shareholders will be compelled to sell, receiving €8.3107/share. <strong>Gross spread is 0.8%. Long.</strong>
</li>
</ul>


Core shareholders holding 60.86% accepted KKR's €8.30/share offer, triggering a mandatory tender for minorities. Greenvolt's revised offer price (€8.3107/share) represented a 95.5% IPO premium, but faced critiques for modest value. 
By October 25, KKR held 97.64% of Greenvolt’s share capital, surpassing the 90% threshold for a squeeze-out and delisting.
The delisting is expected by late 2024 or early 2025, following squeeze-out completion. Minority shareholders will be compelled to sell, receiving €8.3107/share. Gross spread is 0.8%. Long.



European event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits