Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Event-Driven

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

<ul>
<li>Major markets are in a waiting game with vols not monetizing yet implied holding up with US FOMC and the election this week. </li>
<li>Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) , Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) have elevated implied vols vs average historical observations for November.</li>
<li>November typically sees strong price performance, particularly in the 3rd week, leading to softer historic vols in that time frame. </li>
</ul>


Major markets are in a waiting game with vols not monetizing yet implied holding up with US FOMC and the election this week. 
Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) , Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) have elevated implied vols vs average historical observations for November.
November typically sees strong price performance, particularly in the 3rd week, leading to softer historic vols in that time frame. 


EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

Air Link Communication / Equity Bottom-Up

Airlink Communication Ltd. is one of the largest manufacturers, distributors, and retailers of smartphones in Pakistan.

<ul><li>Air Link Communication (AIRLINK) announced its 1QFY25 result today, where the company recorded consolidated earnings of Rs842mn (EPS of Rs2.1), up 7% YoY while down 46% QoQ.</li><li>This result came lower than industry expectations due to lower-than-expected sales.</li><li>Net sales clocked in at Rs22bn, down 12% YoY and 40% QoQ. The decline in sales is primarily due to (1) lower inventory levels amid pre buying in June 2024, driven by the imposition of an 18% GST on all mobiles in FY25 budget, and (2) seasonal Muharram days (falling in July 2024), during which sales usually slow down.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Air Link Communication (AIRLINK) announced its 1QFY25 result today, where the company recorded consolidated earnings of Rs842mn (EPS of Rs2.1), up 7% YoY while down 46% QoQ.This result came lower than industry expectations due to lower-than-expected sales.Net sales clocked in at Rs22bn, down 12% YoY and 40% QoQ. The decline in sales is primarily due to (1) lower inventory levels amid pre buying in June 2024, driven by the imposition of an 18% GST on all mobiles in FY25 budget, and (2) seasonal Muharram days (falling in July 2024), during which sales usually slow down.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Air Link Communication (AIRLINK): 1QFY25 EPS at Rs2.1 up 7% YoY - "Buy" stance maintained

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Eternal Beauty Holdings Limited / Equity Capital Markets

Eternal Beauty Holdings Limited (EBHL12 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eternal-beauty-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43725:1" rel="noopener">Eternal Beauty Holdings</a>(EB) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Eternal Beauty is the largest brand management company of perfumes in the combined markets of Mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau, in terms of retail sales in 2023.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Eternal Beauty Holdings(EB) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Eternal Beauty is the largest brand management company of perfumes in the combined markets of Mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau, in terms of retail sales in 2023.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Eternal Beauty Pre-IPO - The Positives - Expanding Its Brands and Offering

Equity Research Analyst - Long-Short

Raj S, CA, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a> is at a pivotal stage in its transformation, and we expect it to outperform peers in the medium term.</li>
<li>Investors are seeing progress and strategic direction in three critical areas: new EV brands, increasing exports, and sustaining the success of ICE brands.</li>
<li>We are bullish about the EV capabilities of Chinese local OEMs and their ambition to enter global markets assertively. Geely Auto is one of the best plays on this theme.</li>
</ul>



Geely Auto (175 HK) is at a pivotal stage in its transformation, and we expect it to outperform peers in the medium term.
Investors are seeing progress and strategic direction in three critical areas: new EV brands, increasing exports, and sustaining the success of ICE brands.
We are bullish about the EV capabilities of Chinese local OEMs and their ambition to enter global markets assertively. Geely Auto is one of the best plays on this theme.


Geely Auto (175 HK): Initiation: A Key Play on China EV and Global Expansion Theme

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Panasonic Corporation manufactures electric and electronic products. The Company produces home appliances, car navigation systems, digital devices, computer peripherals, telecommunications, industrial equipment, and electronic parts. Panasonic has associated companies around the world.

<ul>
<li>Panasonic blew out consensus forecasts in Q2 and trades at 60% of book value. </li>
<li>Jtekt missed but raised its dividend, which was already very high. </li>
<li>Aisin missed, but by a trivial amount, and the price/book value fell back to a level that marked support on multiple occasions since the Pandemic started.</li>
</ul>


Panasonic blew out consensus forecasts in Q2 and trades at 60% of book value. 
Jtekt missed but raised its dividend, which was already very high. 
Aisin missed, but by a trivial amount, and the price/book value fell back to a level that marked support on multiple occasions since the Pandemic started.


Insights in the Consumer Discretionary Space

Consumer Discretionary
Insights in the Consumer Discretionary Space

EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...

John Ley

Air Link Communication (AIRLINK): 1QFY25 EPS at Rs2.1 up 7% YoY - "Buy" stance maintained

Air Link Communication (AIRLINK) announced its 1QFY25 result today, where the company recorded consolidated earnings of Rs842mn (EPS of Rs2.1),...

Topline Securities

Eternal Beauty Pre-IPO - The Positives - Expanding Its Brands and Offering

Eternal Beauty Holdings(EB) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the positives aspects of...

Sumeet Singh

Geely Auto (175 HK): Initiation: A Key Play on China EV and Global Expansion Theme

Geely Auto poised to outperform peers with focus on new EV brands, exports, making it a top play in context of our bullish view on Chinese OEMs'...

Raj S, CA, CFA

Panasonic (6752): Blows Past Consensus

Panasonic outperforms in Q2, trading at 60% of book value; Jtekt misses but raises dividend; Aisin misses slightly, price/book value falls to...

Michael Allen

EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

​Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...

John Ley

Air Link Communication (AIRLINK): 1QFY25 EPS at Rs2.1 up 7% YoY - "Buy" stance maintained

Air Link Communication (AIRLINK) announced its 1QFY25 result today, where the company recorded consolidated earnings of Rs842mn (EPS of Rs2.1),...

Topline Securities

Eternal Beauty Pre-IPO - The Positives - Expanding Its Brands and Offering

Eternal Beauty Holdings(EB) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the positives aspects of...

Sumeet Singh

Geely Auto (175 HK): Initiation: A Key Play on China EV and Global Expansion Theme

​Geely Auto poised to outperform peers with focus on new EV brands, exports, making it a top play in context of our bullish view on Chinese OEMs'...

Raj S, CA, CFA

Panasonic (6752): Blows Past Consensus

​Panasonic outperforms in Q2, trading at 60% of book value; Jtekt misses but raises dividend; Aisin misses slightly, price/book value falls to...

Michael Allen

Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...

Geely Auto poised to outperform peers with focus on new EV brands, exports, making it a top play in context of our bullish view on Chinese OEMs'...

Panasonic outperforms in Q2, trading at 60% of book value; Jtekt misses but raises dividend; Aisin misses slightly, price/book value falls to...