Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>LKNCY US: Luckin Coffee Opens Its 20,000th Store . (+)</li>
<li>1810 HK/NIO US/XPEV US/1211 HK:July holiday saw normal seasonliaty in EV sales, Xiaomi ramp up nicely（///////）</li>
<li>XPEV US: Details of new refreshed Xpeng sedan P7 revealed (+)</li>
</ul>


LKNCY US: Luckin Coffee Opens Its 20,000th Store . (+)
1810 HK/NIO US/XPEV US/1211 HK:July holiday saw normal seasonliaty in EV sales, Xiaomi ramp up nicely（///////）
XPEV US: Details of new refreshed Xpeng sedan P7 revealed (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY US/1810 HK/NIO US/XPEV US/1211 HK/MNSO US/3690 HK/981 HK/AAPL US/700 HK

Equity Bottom-Up

MINISO Group Holding is a value retailer with a focus on offering products that are aesthetically pleasing, good-quality, and affordable.

<ul>
<li>Miniso report C4Q23 revenue in-line/7.9% vs. our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP NI is 5.1%/10.5% higher than our estimate/consensus on strong overseas sales from North and Latin Americas. </li>
<li>Company guided for soft operating margin thanks to robust new store openings, which we believe to be accretive to earnings in the long run</li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY and but cut TP by US$2 to US$31/ADS</li>
</ul>


Miniso report C4Q23 revenue in-line/7.9% vs. our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP NI is 5.1%/10.5% higher than our estimate/consensus on strong overseas sales from North and Latin Americas. 
Company guided for soft operating margin thanks to robust new store openings, which we believe to be accretive to earnings in the long run
We maintain the stock as BUY and but cut TP by US$2 to US$31/ADS


[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Target Price Change]: Near Term Story Is Still the Americas

<ul>
<li>We attended Miniso’s Investor Day on January 18-19 and came away positively. Management outlined growth strategy of fostering strong connection with Chinese supply chain to achieve fast turnaround of...</li>
<li>We expect MNSO to report C4Q23 revenue and non-GAAP NI at 2.9% and 4.0% higher than consensus mainly due to new store openings;</li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY and raise TP by US$2 to US$33/ADS to reflect our endorsement of the growth strategy.</li>
</ul>


We attended Miniso’s Investor Day on January 18-19 and came away positively. Management outlined growth strategy of fostering strong connection with Chinese supply chain to achieve fast turnaround of...
We expect MNSO to report C4Q23 revenue and non-GAAP NI at 2.9% and 4.0% higher than consensus mainly due to new store openings;
We maintain the stock as BUY and raise TP by US$2 to US$33/ADS to reflect our endorsement of the growth strategy.


[Miniso Group(MNSO US,BUY,TP US$33)TP Change]:Investor Day Called for Growth on Supply Chain and IP

<ul>
<li>China hotel supply shortage haven’t fully recovered from Covid, the total hotel volume is still 11% lower than pre-Covid level in 2023, we expect a full recovery in 2024.</li>
<li>Due to the continue of hotel supply shortage, we think hotel groups in China can still enjoy the premium pricing in the next 6-12 months.</li>
<li>We think Atour has better fundamentals than Huazhu/Jinjiang/BTG, in terms of 1) hotel room scale leverage; 2) RevPAR quality; 3) upper midscale class positioning and less burden in legacy brands.</li>
</ul>


China hotel supply shortage haven’t fully recovered from Covid, the total hotel volume is still 11% lower than pre-Covid level in 2023, we expect a full recovery in 2024.
Due to the continue of hotel supply shortage, we think hotel groups in China can still enjoy the premium pricing in the next 6-12 months.
We think Atour has better fundamentals than Huazhu/Jinjiang/BTG, in terms of 1) hotel room scale leverage; 2) RevPAR quality; 3) upper midscale class positioning and less burden in legacy brands.


[Blue Lotus Lodging Sector Update]: Dividend from Supply Shortage Can Continue into 2024

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

ABN AMRO is a personal bank in the digital age. A bank committed to playing a serious role in society. This digital age helps us to bring banking ever closer to our clients and what they need. Our areas of focus are inclusion, sustainability, social entrepreneurship, innovation, daily banking and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The main driver of the global growth slowdown is the spike in inflation and interest rates, not China, but a sharper reopening rebound would have cushioned global growth more than it has</li><li>In this special Global Monthly, we tackle six urgent questions surrounding China's recovery and what it means for the global economy</li><li>Cyclically, the Chinese economy already passed the trough, but headwinds remain: from property sector woes, to post-zero-Covid scarring, and the global slowdown in demand for goods / rotation back to services, next to some other (structural) challenges</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The main driver of the global growth slowdown is the spike in inflation and interest rates, not China, but a sharper reopening rebound would have cushioned global growth more than it hasIn this special Global Monthly, we tackle six urgent questions surrounding China's recovery and what it means for the global economyCyclically, the Chinese economy already passed the trough, but headwinds remain: from property sector woes, to post-zero-Covid scarring, and the global slowdown in demand for goods / rotation back to services, next to some other (structural) challengesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Global Monthly - Six urgent questions on China

Opportunities and Impact of China's Reopening

China Reopening
Opportunities and Impact of China's Reopening

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY US/1810 HK/NIO US/XPEV US/1211 HK/MNSO US/3690 HK/981 HK/AAPL US/700 HK

Luckin Coffee celebrates milestone with 20,000th store opening, EV sales remain steady during July holiday, Xpeng unveils details of new sedan...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Target Price Change]: Near Term Story Is Still the Americas

Miniso reports strong revenue and non-GAAP net income, guided for soft operating margin due to new store openings. Stock maintained as BUY with TP...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group(MNSO US,BUY,TP US$33)TP Change]:Investor Day Called for Growth on Supply Chain and IP

Miniso's Investor Day highlighted their growth strategy of connecting with Chinese supply chain for fast turnaround. Expect higher revenue and non...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Lodging Sector Update]: Dividend from Supply Shortage Can Continue into 2024

China hotels can continue to enjoy the premium pricing in the next 6-12 months, thanks to supply shortage in reopening. Atour (ATAT) looks...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Global Monthly - Six urgent questions on China

The main driver of the global growth slowdown is the spike in inflation and interest rates, not China, but a sharper reopening rebound would have...

ABN AMRO

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY US/1810 HK/NIO US/XPEV US/1211 HK/MNSO US/3690 HK/981 HK/AAPL US/700 HK

​Luckin Coffee celebrates milestone with 20,000th store opening, EV sales remain steady during July holiday, Xpeng unveils details of new sedan...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Target Price Change]: Near Term Story Is Still the Americas

​Miniso reports strong revenue and non-GAAP net income, guided for soft operating margin due to new store openings. Stock maintained as BUY with TP...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group(MNSO US,BUY,TP US$33)TP Change]:Investor Day Called for Growth on Supply Chain and IP

​Miniso's Investor Day highlighted their growth strategy of connecting with Chinese supply chain for fast turnaround. Expect higher revenue and non...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Lodging Sector Update]: Dividend from Supply Shortage Can Continue into 2024

China hotels can continue to enjoy the premium pricing in the next 6-12 months, thanks to supply shortage in reopening. Atour (ATAT) looks...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Global Monthly - Six urgent questions on China

The main driver of the global growth slowdown is the spike in inflation and interest rates, not China, but a sharper reopening rebound would have...

ABN AMRO

Luckin Coffee celebrates milestone with 20,000th store opening, EV sales remain steady during July holiday, Xpeng unveils details of new sedan...

Miniso reports strong revenue and non-GAAP net income, guided for soft operating margin due to new store openings. Stock maintained as BUY with TP...

Miniso's Investor Day highlighted their growth strategy of connecting with Chinese supply chain for fast turnaround. Expect higher revenue and non...