Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Indo Tambangraya Megah / Equity Bottom-Up

PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk operates as a coal exploration and mining company that provides energy and electricity support. The Company operates in Indonesia and supplies coal to the world energy market.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indo-tambangraya-megah-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15891:1" rel="noopener">Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ)</a> recently had a decent move when it reported strong 3Q 2024 earnings in November. Despite that, it trades at a 12% dividend yield (65% payout).</li>
<li>In our last<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/itmg-ij-steady-coal-prices-mine-life-upgrade-43-of-the-mkt-cap-in-cash-and-11-dividend-yield" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> insight</a>, we flagged an increase in mine life to 19 years (vs 14 years), further clarifying high-margin cash flows for longer. </li>
<li>The company has 926 mn USD in net cash, ~50% of its market capitalization, and is trading at 5.5x PE (assuming 350 mn USD profits vs. 9MFY24 273 mn USD).</li>
</ul>



Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) recently had a decent move when it reported strong 3Q 2024 earnings in November. Despite that, it trades at a 12% dividend yield (65% payout).
In our last insight, we flagged an increase in mine life to 19 years (vs 14 years), further clarifying high-margin cash flows for longer. 
The company has 926 mn USD in net cash, ~50% of its market capitalization, and is trading at 5.5x PE (assuming 350 mn USD profits vs. 9MFY24 273 mn USD).


Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ): 50% of Mkt Cap in Cash, 12% Yield

Geo Energy Resources Limited is a coal mining specialist based in Indonesia. The Company owns and operates coal mines.

<ul>
<li>We examine <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geo-energy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8717:1" rel="noopener">Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP)</a>, an Indonesian coal producer listed in Singapore, which has an opportunity to grow production/profitability by 150%/500% in two years. </li>
<li>For FY25, based on our assumptions (50 USD/ton coal price, ten million ton sales), the stock trades at 5x PE,3.7x EV-EBITDA, and a 6% dividend yield (30% payout ratio). </li>
<li>Subject to execution on the new TRA mine, we will see 25 mnt sales in FY27/28, resulting in 1.3x PE and &gt;30% dividend yield (assuming a higher payout of 40%). </li>
</ul>


We examine Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP), an Indonesian coal producer listed in Singapore, which has an opportunity to grow production/profitability by 150%/500% in two years. 
For FY25, based on our assumptions (50 USD/ton coal price, ten million ton sales), the stock trades at 5x PE,3.7x EV-EBITDA, and a 6% dividend yield (30% payout ratio). 
Subject to execution on the new TRA mine, we will see 25 mnt sales in FY27/28, resulting in 1.3x PE and &gt;30% dividend yield (assuming a higher payout of 40%). 


Geo Energy Group (GERL SP): The Case For a >30% Yield in FY27-28

Commodities

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

<ul>
<li>China TSF disappointed expectations, coming in at 2.34 trillion RMB (down 5% YoY), compared to the median forecast of 2.7 trillion RMB by the street.</li>
<li>Comex premiums significantly strengthened, with alot of market participants turning bullish with the imminent return of Donald Trump to power on the 20th of January 2025.</li>
<li>We initiated on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-quantum-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25362:1" rel="noopener">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)</a>. <span>For more details, read our insight: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/first-quantum-minerals-fm-cn-call-option-on-cobre-panama" target="_blank" rel="noopener">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama?</a></span> </li>
</ul>


China TSF disappointed expectations, coming in at 2.34 trillion RMB (down 5% YoY), compared to the median forecast of 2.7 trillion RMB by the street.
Comex premiums significantly strengthened, with alot of market participants turning bullish with the imminent return of Donald Trump to power on the 20th of January 2025.
We initiated on First Quantum Minerals (FM CN). For more details, read our insight: First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama? 


Copper Tracker 16th Dec 2024: New Loan Growth In China Uninspiring

Ginebra San Miguel Inc. manufactures and distributes liquor products. Ginebra San Miguel's products are marketed under brand names such as Ginebra San Miguel, Anejo Rum, Tondena Manila Rum, VIVA!, and Magnolia FunChum.

<ul>
<li>We are gradually building a high-conviction coverage of ideas for the mid and small-caps in the Philippines.</li>
<li>We set criteria for high ROCE, reasonable growth (10-15% YoY), strong balance sheets, and reasonable capital allocation (dividend yields), all ingredients for being multi-baggers.</li>
<li>We summarize some updates for our top year-end picks: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digiplus-interactive-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23060:1" rel="noopener">DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ginebra-san-miguel-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23029:1" rel="noopener">Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a> </li>
</ul>


We are gradually building a high-conviction coverage of ideas for the mid and small-caps in the Philippines.
We set criteria for high ROCE, reasonable growth (10-15% YoY), strong balance sheets, and reasonable capital allocation (dividend yields), all ingredients for being multi-baggers.
We summarize some updates for our top year-end picks: DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM), Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM), and The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) 


Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas - December 2024

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-quantum-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25362:1" rel="noopener">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)</a> is a play on African mining assets for copper/zinc with an optionality of resumption of the Cobre Panama mine that could double the share price. </li>
<li>We should not assign a high probability to the asset's resumption and view it as a long-duration, very out-of-the-money call option.</li>
<li>The company trades at an EV-EBITDA of 9.8x, which is more expensive than some of its peers. However, Cobre Panama's optionality makes it attractive.</li>
</ul>



First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) is a play on African mining assets for copper/zinc with an optionality of resumption of the Cobre Panama mine that could double the share price. 
We should not assign a high probability to the asset's resumption and view it as a long-duration, very out-of-the-money call option.
The company trades at an EV-EBITDA of 9.8x, which is more expensive than some of its peers. However, Cobre Panama's optionality makes it attractive.


First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama?

Investics Research
Equity Bottom-up Research

Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ): 50% of Mkt Cap in Cash, 12% Yield

We summarize ITMG IJ's value proposition. The company has 926 mn USD in net cash, ~50% of its market capitalization, and is trading at 5.5x PE,...

Sameer Taneja

Geo Energy Group (GERL SP): The Case For a >30% Yield in FY27-28

We examine Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP) and the math to support the case that its dividend yield will be >30% over the next two years. We also...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker 16th Dec 2024: New Loan Growth In China Uninspiring

With the uninspiring China TSF number and the CEWC's release of stimulus measures that haven't inspired confidence in market participants, what do...

Sameer Taneja

Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas - December 2024

We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names for the Philippines with our desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin...

Sameer Taneja

First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama?

We initiate First Quantum Minerals (FM CN), a Canadian copper miner with assets in Zambia/Panama. We analyze the bull-bear spread and risk to the...

Sameer Taneja