HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Revenue growth of MIXUE in 2024 was the lowest in recent three year but is still higher than competitors.Together with higher profit margin, MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers. </li>
<li>Based on 2024 results, we adjusted our forecast for the next three years. Declining performance growth is inevitable, but successful internationalization helps reassure its high growth outlook in the future</li>
<li>Due to concerns, investors need to pay attention to the performance verification.If 2025H1 net profit growth is significantly lower than 30% YoY, investors should be alert to a potential correction.</li>
</ul>


Revenue growth of MIXUE in 2024 was the lowest in recent three year but is still higher than competitors.Together with higher profit margin, MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers. 
Based on 2024 results, we adjusted our forecast for the next three years. Declining performance growth is inevitable, but successful internationalization helps reassure its high growth outlook in the future
Due to concerns, investors need to pay attention to the performance verification.If 2025H1 net profit growth is significantly lower than 30% YoY, investors should be alert to a potential correction.


Mixue Group (2097 HK) - Updates on Valuation Outlook and Growth Forecast Based on 2024 Results

Equity Analyst, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>The comparison between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming (1364 HK)'s</a> 2024 annual results highlight how their financial and operational performance diverged sharply.</li>
<li>Mixue's vertically integrated operations provide it a strong competitive edge and superior margins while Guming, operating in the mid-priced segment faced fierce competition</li>
<li>Mixue's high-quality earnings growth underscores a robust business model that attracts premium valuation multiples.</li>
</ul>


The comparison between Mixue Group (2097 HK) and Guming (1364 HK)'s 2024 annual results highlight how their financial and operational performance diverged sharply.
Mixue's vertically integrated operations provide it a strong competitive edge and superior margins while Guming, operating in the mid-priced segment faced fierce competition
Mixue's high-quality earnings growth underscores a robust business model that attracts premium valuation multiples.


Mixue Vs Guming: Valuation Premium. Comparing Earnings Growth in 2024

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There have been 14 new listings on the Main Board of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX</a> in Q1. One listing is a transfer from the GEM Board and one is a De-SPAC.</li>
<li>Of the 14 stocks, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (1364 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloks-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43648:1" rel="noopener">Bloks Group (1850960D CH)</a> as potential HSCI inclusions in June.</li>
<li>There are no lock-up expiries in the stocks ahead of inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect and the low float could take the stocks higher ahead of the index inclusion announcement.</li>
</ul>


There have been 14 new listings on the Main Board of the HKEX in Q1. One listing is a transfer from the GEM Board and one is a De-SPAC.
Of the 14 stocks, we see Mixue Group (2097 HK), Guming Holdings (1364 HK) and Bloks Group (1850960D CH) as potential HSCI inclusions in June.
There are no lock-up expiries in the stocks ahead of inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect and the low float could take the stocks higher ahead of the index inclusion announcement.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Three Hot Inclusions to Stock Connect in June

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>MIXUE's IPO debut was stellar. the IPO pricing of HK$202.5/share was indeed conservative. MIXUE is able to obtain more valuation premium space after IPO from a relatively low IPO pricing.</li>
<li>However, concerns on future performance growth remains. Investors need to pay attention to the performance verification. Market sentiment is becoming “overheated”, and the pressure for short-term stock price corrections increases.</li>
<li>We updated our forecast for 2025-2027. If based on P/E of 20-25x, market value is HK$109.4-136.8 billion, HK$122.5-153.2 billion, HK$134.8-168.5 billion based on 2025, 2026 and 2027 net profit, respectively.  </li>
</ul>


MIXUE's IPO debut was stellar. the IPO pricing of HK$202.5/share was indeed conservative. MIXUE is able to obtain more valuation premium space after IPO from a relatively low IPO pricing.
However, concerns on future performance growth remains. Investors need to pay attention to the performance verification. Market sentiment is becoming “overheated”, and the pressure for short-term stock price corrections increases.
We updated our forecast for 2025-2027. If based on P/E of 20-25x, market value is HK$109.4-136.8 billion, HK$122.5-153.2 billion, HK$134.8-168.5 billion based on 2025, 2026 and 2027 net profit, respectively.  


MIXUE Group (2097.HK) - Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook

<ul>
<li>The 11th national VBP is expected to start in 2025H1. Companies such as Kelun, CSPC, Qilu Pharmaceuticals, Fosun Pharma, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22928:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Pharmaceutical</a>, etc. are expected to be affected the most.</li>
<li>It is estimated that the entire market of PD-1/L1 x VEGF BsAb is approximately US$20-30 billion. AK112 is expected to seize about 40%-50% of the market or US$8-15 billion.</li>
<li>MIXUE's IPO debut was stellar. Conservative investors can considering taking profits as risk of share price corrections has increased. Radical investors can choose to bet on valuation exceeding Nongfu Spring.</li>
</ul>


The 11th national VBP is expected to start in 2025H1. Companies such as Kelun, CSPC, Qilu Pharmaceuticals, Fosun Pharma, China Resources Pharmaceutical, etc. are expected to be affected the most.
It is estimated that the entire market of PD-1/L1 x VEGF BsAb is approximately US$20-30 billion. AK112 is expected to seize about 40%-50% of the market or US$8-15 billion.
MIXUE's IPO debut was stellar. Conservative investors can considering taking profits as risk of share price corrections has increased. Radical investors can choose to bet on valuation exceeding Nongfu Spring.


China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.9) - 11th VBP, PD-1/VEGF BsAb Outlook, MIXUE's Stunning IPO Debut

China

MIXUE Group operates freshly-made drinks stores. The Company provides freshly-made fruit drinks, tea drinks, ice cream, and coffee. MIXUE Group conducts businesses across worldwide.

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Mixue Group (2097 HK)