Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>300274 SZ/601012 CH: A fire broke out in JinkoSolar’s Shanxi factory may benefit the entire supply chain.(///)</li>
<li>1810 HK /XPEV US/LI US : Tesla passed all 4 national automotive data security requirements, Musk made a surprise visit to China and was received by Li Qiang （/////）</li>
<li>1810 HK: Pony.ai formed JV with Toyota to prepare for robotaxi（/）</li>
</ul>


300274 SZ/601012 CH: A fire broke out in JinkoSolar’s Shanxi factory may benefit the entire supply chain.(///)
1810 HK /XPEV US/LI US : Tesla passed all 4 national automotive data security requirements, Musk made a surprise visit to China and was received by Li Qiang （/////）
1810 HK: Pony.ai formed JV with Toyota to prepare for robotaxi（/）


[Blue Lotus Daily]:300274 SZ/601012 CH/1810 HK /XPEV US/LI US/300750 SZ/1211 HK/BZ US/Huawei

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

<ul>
<li>TCOM US/ATAT US: The increase in rainfall will negatively impact travels during the Labor Day holiday.(-/-)</li>
<li>META US/MSFT US /GOOGL US /SNAP US: The application of AI in advertising on short video and social platforms may result in greater efficiency than search advertising.（///////）</li>
<li>3690 HK: Meituan plans to expand into the Middle East Riyadh via KeeTa.（-）</li>
</ul>


TCOM US/ATAT US: The increase in rainfall will negatively impact travels during the Labor Day holiday.(-/-)
META US/MSFT US /GOOGL US /SNAP US: The application of AI in advertising on short video and social platforms may result in greater efficiency than search advertising.（///////）
3690 HK: Meituan plans to expand into the Middle East Riyadh via KeeTa.（-）


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:TCOM US/ATAT US/METAUS/MSFTUS /GOOGLUS /SNAPUS/3690HK/NTESUS/SHEINUS

Equity Bottom-Up

Luckin Coffee Inc. provides non-alcoholic beverages. The Company offers various types of coffee. Luckin Coffee serves customers in China.

<ul>
<li>Despite Cotti’s difficulties, we are seeing intensified competition with well-funded competitors like Starbucks and KFC, joining the price war, which poses challenges to Luckin’s effort at raising prices.</li>
<li>We see Luckin at losing its coffee differentiation. We revised down average store sales growth to (5%)/(10%)YoY due to weak sales caused by the narrowing scope of the RMB9.9 promotion</li>
<li>We downgrade the stock rating from BUY to SELL and lower TP to US$17/ADS.</li>
</ul>


Despite Cotti’s difficulties, we are seeing intensified competition with well-funded competitors like Starbucks and KFC, joining the price war, which poses challenges to Luckin’s effort at raising prices.
We see Luckin at losing its coffee differentiation. We revised down average store sales growth to (5%)/(10%)YoY due to weak sales caused by the narrowing scope of the RMB9.9 promotion
We downgrade the stock rating from BUY to SELL and lower TP to US$17/ADS.


[Luckin (LKNCY US, SELL, TP US$17) Rating Change]: Old Tricks Might Have Run Out of Its Use

Xiaomi Corporation manufactures communication equipment and parts. The Company produces and sells mobile phones, smart phone software,  set-top boxes, and related accessories. Xiaomi markets its products worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Performance of SU7 so far, margin of EV biz and globalization potential prompted us to take another look at Xiaomi and we like what we saw;</li>
<li>Xiaomi surprised during the Investor Day by guiding SU7 gross margin of 5-10%. Delivery guidance also surprised to ship 100k units in 2024. </li>
<li>We raise EV profitability estimates on margin guidance and expect market share to expand as it expands to SUVs.</li>
</ul>


Performance of SU7 so far, margin of EV biz and globalization potential prompted us to take another look at Xiaomi and we like what we saw;
Xiaomi surprised during the Investor Day by guiding SU7 gross margin of 5-10%. Delivery guidance also surprised to ship 100k units in 2024. 
We raise EV profitability estimates on margin guidance and expect market share to expand as it expands to SUVs.


[Xiaomi (1810 HK, BUY, TP HK$20) Rating Change]: Xiaomi EV Came at the Right Time of Consolidation

<ul>
<li>9926 HK/1801 HK/BGNE US/9995 HK: Stablization of insulin NDRL price suspected major changes in medical insurance policies(///////)</li>
<li>LI US/1810 HK/1211 HK/NIO US/XPEV US: In the 16th week of 2024, the growth rate of new energy vehicles slowed down, LI showed negative growth, AITO rebounded, Xiaomi fell back（/////////）</li>
<li>1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US: Takeaways from Xiaomi Investor Conference (+/-/-/-)</li>
</ul>


9926 HK/1801 HK/BGNE US/9995 HK: Stablization of insulin NDRL price suspected major changes in medical insurance policies(///////)
LI US/1810 HK/1211 HK/NIO US/XPEV US: In the 16th week of 2024, the growth rate of new energy vehicles slowed down, LI showed negative growth, AITO rebounded, Xiaomi fell back（/////////）
1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US: Takeaways from Xiaomi Investor Conference (+/-/-/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:9926HK/1801HK/BGNE US/9995HK/LI US/1810HK/1211HK/NIO US/XPEVUS/300274SZ/ 300750SZ

Blue Lotus Research Institute
China growth and global non-US Internet equities

[Blue Lotus Daily]:300274 SZ/601012 CH/1810 HK /XPEV US/LI US/300750 SZ/1211 HK/BZ US/Huawei

Tesla passed automotive data security requirements, Musk visit to China，FSD is about to enter China. A fire broke out in JinkoSolar’s factory. CATL...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:TCOM US/ATAT US/METAUS/MSFTUS /GOOGLUS /SNAPUS/3690HK/NTESUS/SHEINUS

rainfall will impact travel during Labor Day. Meituan expand into the Middle East Riyadh. NPPA released the game code. SHEIN designated asVLOP....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Luckin (LKNCY US, SELL, TP US$17) Rating Change]: Old Tricks Might Have Run Out of Its Use

To make things worse, we see Luckin at losing its coffee differentiation. We downgrade the stock rating from BUY to SELL and lower TP to US$17/ADS.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Xiaomi (1810 HK, BUY, TP HK$20) Rating Change]: Xiaomi EV Came at the Right Time of Consolidation

Xiaomi surprised during the Investor Day by guiding SU7 gross margin of 5-10%. Delivery guidance also surprised to ship 100k units in 2024.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:9926HK/1801HK/BGNE US/9995HK/LI US/1810HK/1211HK/NIO US/XPEVUS/300274SZ/ 300750SZ

Stablization of insulin NDRL price suspected major changes. New energy exports were generally weak in March, with new energy vehicles thriving....

Blue Lotus Research Institute