Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

<ul>
<li>PDD reported C4Q24 top line 1.1%/(6.1%) vs. our est./cons. and non-GAAP operating income (5.4%)/(5.6%) vs. est./cons., </li>
<li>PDD rose to prominence by optimizing the value chain built/inherited by Alibaba/eBay in China and Amazon/eBay in US. </li>
<li>As these two “bonuses” coming to an end, PDD must build its own. While growth shall normalize, China low tier cities and global developing markets shall sustain its growth. </li>
</ul>


PDD reported C4Q24 top line 1.1%/(6.1%) vs. our est./cons. and non-GAAP operating income (5.4%)/(5.6%) vs. est./cons., 
PDD rose to prominence by optimizing the value chain built/inherited by Alibaba/eBay in China and Amazon/eBay in US. 
As these two “bonuses” coming to an end, PDD must build its own. While growth shall normalize, China low tier cities and global developing markets shall sustain its growth. 


[PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD US, BUY, TP US$146) Review]: A New PDD Focusing on Low Tier and Non-US

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Our take is JD.com's expansion to O2O/Food Delivery is still measured and constrained. It mainly serves the premium members;</li>
<li>Meituan, PDD' and Beike posted results broadly both in-line/slightly exceed expectations. Meituan and Beike raised AI capex while PDD and JD.com didn't mention;</li>
<li>Game received first official recognition in government's 30 stimulative measures for consumption.  Our TOP PICK is NTES.</li>
</ul>


Our take is JD.com's expansion to O2O/Food Delivery is still measured and constrained. It mainly serves the premium members;
Meituan, PDD' and Beike posted results broadly both in-line/slightly exceed expectations. Meituan and Beike raised AI capex while PDD and JD.com didn't mention;
Game received first official recognition in government's 30 stimulative measures for consumption.  Our TOP PICK is NTES.


[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 12/52]: The Tug of War Between JD and Meituan Intensifies

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

<ul>
<li>China's economic data continued to be mixed. The on-again-off-again patter is here to stay. PBOC's stated policy to follow the US means Trumponomics's next read is critical to China, too;</li>
<li>Whether it is positive or negative to our sector depends on whether the view is half full or half empty. Stimulus will increasingly become irrelevant;</li>
<li>China EV posted strong numbers which cannot be explained by trade-in subsidy alone. Earning flash of Xiaomi, LI and Zeekr. </li>
</ul>


China's economic data continued to be mixed. The on-again-off-again patter is here to stay. PBOC's stated policy to follow the US means Trumponomics's next read is critical to China, too;
Whether it is positive or negative to our sector depends on whether the view is half full or half empty. Stimulus will increasingly become irrelevant;
China EV posted strong numbers which cannot be explained by trade-in subsidy alone. Earning flash of Xiaomi, LI and Zeekr. 


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 12/52] Choice of the Less Evil Between Trumponomics' Outcomes

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Tencent reported C4Q24 revenue, IFRS op. profit, and IFRS net income in-line, (5.3%), 6.0% vs. our est. and 2.1%, (12.6%), 5.3% vs. cons. </li>
<li>We shifted our game TOP PICK from Tencent to NetEase on January 16 2025, due to pipeline gaps. </li>
<li>We reiterate our BUY rating and raise TP to HK$545 on Tencent. We expect game pipeline to fill the gap with the launch of two blockbusters in C3Q25.</li>
</ul>


Tencent reported C4Q24 revenue, IFRS op. profit, and IFRS net income in-line, (5.3%), 6.0% vs. our est. and 2.1%, (12.6%), 5.3% vs. cons. 
We shifted our game TOP PICK from Tencent to NetEase on January 16 2025, due to pipeline gaps. 
We reiterate our BUY rating and raise TP to HK$545 on Tencent. We expect game pipeline to fill the gap with the launch of two blockbusters in C3Q25.


[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$545) Target Price Change]: C4Q24 Review: Good Time to Pick up Shares

KE Holdings Inc. operates as an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services. The Company offers existing and new home sales, home rentals, home renovation, real estate financial solutions, and other services. KE Holdings conducts businesses in China.

<ul>
<li>Beike reported C4Q24 revenue beat our estimate/consensus by 8.4%/7.4%, non-GAAP OP miss our estimate/consensus by 37.5%/21.6%, due to front-loading expansion cost.</li>
<li>We expect Beike to take 2-3ppt of market share in a rebalancing property market in 2025. </li>
<li>We keep the stock as BUY and keep TP at US$25.</li>
</ul>


Beike reported C4Q24 revenue beat our estimate/consensus by 8.4%/7.4%, non-GAAP OP miss our estimate/consensus by 37.5%/21.6%, due to front-loading expansion cost.
We expect Beike to take 2-3ppt of market share in a rebalancing property market in 2025. 
We keep the stock as BUY and keep TP at US$25.


[KE Holdings (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$25) Earnings Review]: Housing Inventory Resolution Drives Recovery

Blue Lotus Research Institute
China growth and global non-US Internet equities

[PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD US, BUY, TP US$146) Review]: A New PDD Focusing on Low Tier and Non-US

PDD's top line and operating income fall short of expectations as it transitions from optimizing existing value chains to building

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 12/52]: The Tug of War Between JD and Meituan Intensifies

JD.com's measured expansion into O2O/Food Delivery targets premium members. Government recognition of gaming in consumption stimulus measures...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 12/52] Choice of the Less Evil Between Trumponomics' Outcomes

China's economic data remains mixed, with PBOC closely following US policy. Stimulus may become irrelevant as China's EV sector sees strong growth...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$545) Target Price Change]: C4Q24 Review: Good Time to Pick up Shares

Tencent reports solid financials, but game pipeline concerns lead to shift in top pick to NetEase. Analysts maintain BUY rating and raise target...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[KE Holdings (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$25) Earnings Review]: Housing Inventory Resolution Drives Recovery

Beike beats revenue estimates but misses on operating profit due to expansion costs. Expected to gain market share in 2025. Stock remains a buy...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD US, BUY, TP US$146) Review]: A New PDD Focusing on Low Tier and Non-US

​PDD's top line and operating income fall short of expectations as it transitions from optimizing existing value chains to building

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 12/52]: The Tug of War Between JD and Meituan Intensifies

​JD.com's measured expansion into O2O/Food Delivery targets premium members. Government recognition of gaming in consumption stimulus measures...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 12/52] Choice of the Less Evil Between Trumponomics' Outcomes

​China's economic data remains mixed, with PBOC closely following US policy. Stimulus may become irrelevant as China's EV sector sees strong growth...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$545) Target Price Change]: C4Q24 Review: Good Time to Pick up Shares

​Tencent reports solid financials, but game pipeline concerns lead to shift in top pick to NetEase. Analysts maintain BUY rating and raise target...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[KE Holdings (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$25) Earnings Review]: Housing Inventory Resolution Drives Recovery

​Beike beats revenue estimates but misses on operating profit due to expansion costs. Expected to gain market share in 2025. Stock remains a buy...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

PDD's top line and operating income fall short of expectations as it transitions from optimizing existing value chains to building

JD.com's measured expansion into O2O/Food Delivery targets premium members. Government recognition of gaming in consumption stimulus measures...

China's economic data remains mixed, with PBOC closely following US policy. Stimulus may become irrelevant as China's EV sector sees strong growth...

Tencent reports solid financials, but game pipeline concerns lead to shift in top pick to NetEase. Analysts maintain BUY rating and raise target...

Beike beats revenue estimates but misses on operating profit due to expansion costs. Expected to gain market share in 2025. Stock remains a buy...