Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Early 6/18 pulled June sales into May, leading to disappointing June NBS data. Combined, online retail grew 5.1% yoy in May/June, and 6.4% yoy in 2Q24. </li>
<li>PDD remained the top shelf-ecommerce platform with GMV growing ~20%, followed by Taobao/Tmall (TTG) at ~6-7%, and JD and VIPS at ~2-3% yoy. </li>
<li>We expect JD and BABA to report slight earnings beats and guide upbeat on continued profitability improvement in 2H24. </li>
</ul>


Early 6/18 pulled June sales into May, leading to disappointing June NBS data. Combined, online retail grew 5.1% yoy in May/June, and 6.4% yoy in 2Q24. 
PDD remained the top shelf-ecommerce platform with GMV growing ~20%, followed by Taobao/Tmall (TTG) at ~6-7%, and JD and VIPS at ~2-3% yoy. 
We expect JD and BABA to report slight earnings beats and guide upbeat on continued profitability improvement in 2H24. 


[Blue Lotus E-Commerce Sector Update]: Tax Reform a Light at the End of the Tunnel for Ecommerce

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BZ US: Age 16-24 unemployment rate declined for three consecutive months, mainly driven by the manufacturing sector.（+）</li>
<li>LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/1211 HK: EV post holiday sales weak, LI and AITO strong but NIO and Xiaomi down.（/////////）</li>
<li>1810 HK: Xiaomi to launch new products on July 19th (/)</li>
</ul>


BZ US: Age 16-24 unemployment rate declined for three consecutive months, mainly driven by the manufacturing sector.（+）
LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/1211 HK: EV post holiday sales weak, LI and AITO strong but NIO and Xiaomi down.（/////////）
1810 HK: Xiaomi to launch new products on July 19th (/)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:BZ US/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/1211 HK

<ul>
<li>700 HK: Tencent's &lt;Civilization Mobile&gt; Officially Launches, Ranks Second on iOS Download Chart.（+）</li>
<li>JD US/PDD US/BABA US : JD to launch new monthly promo event “Super 18” (/)</li>
<li>PDD US: PDD announces new requirements for some merchants (+)</li>
</ul>


700 HK: Tencent's &lt;Civilization Mobile&gt; Officially Launches, Ranks Second on iOS Download Chart.（+）
JD US/PDD US/BABA US : JD to launch new monthly promo event “Super 18” (/)
PDD US: PDD announces new requirements for some merchants (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700HK/JD US/PDD US/BABA US/NTES US/SE US/TCOM US/ATAT US/3690HK/BABAUS

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Stan Zhao

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector

<ul>
<li>The popularity of &lt;DnF Mobile&gt; and &lt;Arena Breakout&gt; continues to rise. As a result, we are increasing the gross billings estimation for these games by 10% and 15% respectively.</li>
<li>
&lt;Need For Speed Mobile&gt; had an impressive first day, topping the iOS download charts and ranking  15th on the grossing chart. We are raising the expected gross billings by 25%.</li>
<li>Due to the game's lifecycle, &lt;Eggy Party&gt; has experienced a slight decline in revenue. Therefore, we are adjusting the forecast down by 10%. Conversely, &lt;Identity V&gt; continues to perform strongly.</li>
</ul>


The popularity of &lt;DnF Mobile&gt; and &lt;Arena Breakout&gt; continues to rise. As a result, we are increasing the gross billings estimation for these games by 10% and 15% respectively.

&lt;Need For Speed Mobile&gt; had an impressive first day, topping the iOS download charts and ranking  15th on the grossing chart. We are raising the expected gross billings by 25%.
Due to the game's lifecycle, &lt;Eggy Party&gt; has experienced a slight decline in revenue. Therefore, we are adjusting the forecast down by 10%. Conversely, &lt;Identity V&gt; continues to perform strongly.


Andy Fu

<ul>
<li>Consumption subsidies in China has been muted in the 2020-2024 period, compared to practices in 2009-2012. We believe it reflects different thought of Chinese government at these two times;</li>
<li>Past data has suggested that consumption subsidies are effective. We expect consumer subsidies of ~RMB 50bn to be issued in C2H24 to revive consumption;</li>
<li>An even bigger consumer stimulus of ~RMB 200bn might be issued in 2025, and we believe a consumption tax reform might be one the permanent fixes for the purpose.</li>
</ul>


Consumption subsidies in China has been muted in the 2020-2024 period, compared to practices in 2009-2012. We believe it reflects different thought of Chinese government at these two times;
Past data has suggested that consumption subsidies are effective. We expect consumer subsidies of ~RMB 50bn to be issued in C2H24 to revive consumption;
An even bigger consumer stimulus of ~RMB 200bn might be issued in 2025, and we believe a consumption tax reform might be one the permanent fixes for the purpose.


How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part IV：Consumption Voucher Is Effective

Blue Lotus Research Institute
China growth and global non-US Internet equities

[Blue Lotus E-Commerce Sector Update]: Tax Reform a Light at the End of the Tunnel for Ecommerce

June sales pulled into May led to disappointing June NBS data. Online retail grew 5.1% yoy in May/June and 6.4% yoy in 2Q24. PDD led in GMV...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BZ US/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/1211 HK

Unemployment rate for 16-24 age group in US drops due to manufacturing sector; EV sales post-holiday weak, Xiaomi to launch new products on July...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700HK/JD US/PDD US/BABA US/NTES US/SE US/TCOM US/ATAT US/3690HK/BABAUS

Tencent's <civilization mobile> ranks second on iOS download chart, JD US to launch "Super 18" promo event, PDD US announces new requirements for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Online Game Monitor: July 2-15, 2024

Gross billing estimates for popular mobile games like Tencent's <dnf mobile>, and Bilibili's <three kingdom> are being adjusted due to rising...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part IV：Consumption Voucher Is Effective

China's consumption subsidies have been quite conservative but actually effective. We expect more subsidies in 2H24 and far more in 2025. We...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus E-Commerce Sector Update]: Tax Reform a Light at the End of the Tunnel for Ecommerce

​June sales pulled into May led to disappointing June NBS data. Online retail grew 5.1% yoy in May/June and 6.4% yoy in 2Q24. PDD led in GMV...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BZ US/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/1211 HK

​Unemployment rate for 16-24 age group in US drops due to manufacturing sector; EV sales post-holiday weak, Xiaomi to launch new products on July...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700HK/JD US/PDD US/BABA US/NTES US/SE US/TCOM US/ATAT US/3690HK/BABAUS

​Tencent's <civilization mobile> ranks second on iOS download chart, JD US to launch "Super 18" promo event, PDD US announces new requirements for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Online Game Monitor: July 2-15, 2024

​Gross billing estimates for popular mobile games like Tencent's <dnf mobile>, and Bilibili's <three kingdom> are being adjusted due to rising...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part IV：Consumption Voucher Is Effective

​China's consumption subsidies have been quite conservative but actually effective. We expect more subsidies in 2H24 and far more in 2025. We...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

June sales pulled into May led to disappointing June NBS data. Online retail grew 5.1% yoy in May/June and 6.4% yoy in 2Q24. PDD led in GMV...

Unemployment rate for 16-24 age group in US drops due to manufacturing sector; EV sales post-holiday weak, Xiaomi to launch new products on July...

Tencent's <civilization mobile> ranks second on iOS download chart, JD US to launch "Super 18" promo event, PDD US announces new requirements for...

Gross billing estimates for popular mobile games like Tencent's <dnf mobile>, and Bilibili's <three kingdom> are being adjusted due to rising...

China's consumption subsidies have been quite conservative but actually effective. We expect more subsidies in 2H24 and far more in 2025. We...