Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 1Q24, Revenues of Xpeng, Tongcheng, Kanzhun, and Gaotu grew by 62% YoY, 50%, YoY, 43% YoY and 34% YoY.</li>
<li>KE’s revenue decreased by 20% YoY in 1Q24 due to the weak property market.</li>
<li>Bilibili’s value added services revenue grew by 17% YoY and advertising revenue grew by 31% YoY.</li>
</ul>


In 1Q24, Revenues of Xpeng, Tongcheng, Kanzhun, and Gaotu grew by 62% YoY, 50%, YoY, 43% YoY and 34% YoY.
KE’s revenue decreased by 20% YoY in 1Q24 due to the weak property market.
Bilibili’s value added services revenue grew by 17% YoY and advertising revenue grew by 31% YoY.


China Consumption Weekly (27 May 2024): Xpeng, Tongcheng, Kanzhun, Gaotu, KE, Bilibili, and Weibo

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Maintain HOLD. Management’s upbeat view on the Mona and the new B-class sedan has probably given investors more confidence in Xpeng’s substantial sales growth in 4Q24 (similar to 4Q23) and FY25.</li><li>We have largely factored in such growth in our prior forecast. 1Q24 GPM was largely lifted by service revenue, as vehicle sales only accounted for 36% of total gross profit.</li><li>We are of the view that Xpeng is still unlikely to turn profitable in FY25E.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain HOLD. Management’s upbeat view on the Mona and the new B-class sedan has probably given investors more confidence in Xpeng’s substantial sales growth in 4Q24 (similar to 4Q23) and FY25.We have largely factored in such growth in our prior forecast. 1Q24 GPM was largely lifted by service revenue, as vehicle sales only accounted for 36% of total gross profit.We are of the view that Xpeng is still unlikely to turn profitable in FY25E.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xpeng Inc. (XPEV US) - Await More Details About Mona

<ul><li>Maintain HOLD. We cut our FY24E net loss by RMB2.6bn to RMB6.7bn, as the 4Q23 GPM beat and the X9 may contribute a larger portion of sales.</li><li>On the other hand, Xpeng’s model pipeline in 2024 underscored our prior argument that the automaker has not found its brand proposition and comprehensive product mix.</li><li>We still see little signals for Xpeng to turn profitable in the foreseeable future, as it could be difficult for the automaker to achieve sizable sales and 15% GPM at the same time, in our view.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain HOLD. We cut our FY24E net loss by RMB2.6bn to RMB6.7bn, as the 4Q23 GPM beat and the X9 may contribute a larger portion of sales.On the other hand, Xpeng’s model pipeline in 2024 underscored our prior argument that the automaker has not found its brand proposition and comprehensive product mix.We still see little signals for Xpeng to turn profitable in the foreseeable future, as it could be difficult for the automaker to achieve sizable sales and 15% GPM at the same time, in our view.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xpeng Inc. (XPEV US) - Margin Lift Mixed with Unexciting New Models

<ul><li>Maintain HOLD. We expect Xpeng’s 4Q23E vehicle GPM to turn positive.</li><li>However, such margin lift may not be enough to narrow its net loss significantly in FY24E.</li><li>Although we see possible share price recovery for automakers, Xpeng may lack positive catalysts, as its new models are scheduled in 2H24.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain HOLD. We expect Xpeng’s 4Q23E vehicle GPM to turn positive.However, such margin lift may not be enough to narrow its net loss significantly in FY24E.Although we see possible share price recovery for automakers, Xpeng may lack positive catalysts, as its new models are scheduled in 2H24.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xpeng Inc. (XPEV US) - Lack of New Model Catalysts

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

China

FAW Jiefang Group Co., Ltd, through joint ventures, manufactures and markets cars and auto parts.  The Company produces automobiles, transmission systems, and engines.  FAW Car also provides auto repair and customizing services.

BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. operates as a passenger car manufacturer. The Company engages in research, development, and marketing of new energy vehicles and power battery system. BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology conducts businesses in China.

BAIC BluePark New Energy Techn (600733 CH)

Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited develops, manufactures, and markets mini cars, mini sedans, full size sedans, and engines.

Chongqing Changan Automobile Company (200625 CH)

Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets bus and truck chassis, gear boxes, other auto parts, and business automobiles.

NIO Inc. manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company offers electric vehicles and parts, as well as provides battery charging services. NIO serves customers worldwide.

Dongfeng Motor Group Company Limited, through joint ventures, designs, manufactures, and markets diesel engines, light trucks, automobiles, castings, and related spare parts.

China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Company Limited develops, manufactures and sells automotive products, provides consulting, automotive testing and evaluation services. The Company's main products include dump trucks, concrete mixer trucks, and sanitation trucks.

China Automotive Engg Rsrch Inst (601965 CH)

Beiqi Foton Motor Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets automobiles and parts. The Company produces light trucks, medium trucks, heavy trucks, passenger cars, and engine parts. Beiqi Foton Motor also conducts automotive wholesale businesses domestically and internationally.

Guangzhou Automobile Group Company, Ltd. manufactures, sells, and services automobiles. The Company is also involved in automobile parts and components, and auto finance and related services for both overseas and domestic markets.

Lifan Industry (Group) Company Limited develops, manufactures and sells motorcycles, cars and gasoline engines. The Company's major products include motorcycles, motorcycle engines, passenger cars, passenger car engines, gasoline engines and other terminal products such as generator sets, water pumps and lawn mowers.

MITSUBISHI MOTORS CORPORATION develops and manufactures passenger cars and its related parts.  The Company has production facilities in Japan, the US, and Thailand.  Mitsubishi Motors Corp provides vehicle-related financing and leasing service through its subsidiary.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells motorcycles.  The Company's products include heavyweight touring, custom, and performance motorcycles, as well as a line of motorcycle parts, accessories, and general merchandise.  Harley-Davidson also provides motorcycle floor planning and parts and accessories financing to its North American and European dealers.

Thor Industries, Inc. produces and sells a wide range of recreation vehicles.  The Company markets its products through independent dealers located throughout the United States and Canada.  Thor's products are sold under the Airstream Classic, Dutchmen, Skamper, Infinity, Four Winds, Citation, Signature, and other names.

Mazda Motor Corporation manufactures and sells automobiles, trucks, auto parts, and its accessories.  The Company operates its business worldwide.

Yadea Group is a leading electric two wheeler brand in China. The company produces electric bikes and scooters.

Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS manufactures cars and automobile parts under license from Fiat.  The Group also imports Alfa Romeo and Fiat cars for domestic market and provides financing services.

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited operates as a passenger vehicles manufacturing company. The Company provides passenger vehicles development, manufacturing, sales, and other services. Geely Automobile Holdings also exports passenger vehicles.

Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes minibuses and sedans in the People's Republic of China.  The Company also manufactures and trades automotive components.

Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. manufactures motorcycles.  The Company also produces motor vehicle engines for Toyota Motor Corp. and Ford Motor Co.  Yamaha Motor's specialty products include motor boats, snowmobiles, golf carts, and electric power generators.  Yamaha Motor sells products in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, and South America.

Isuzu Motors Limited manufactures and markets trucks and automobile parts. The Company's products include pickup trucks, light/heavy duty trucks, medium and large-sized buses, recreational vehicles, and sport utility vehicles.

XPeng Inc. designs, produces, and distributes electric vehicles. The Company designs, develops, manufactures and markets smart smart electric vehicles, as well as finance, parts, and maintenance services. XPeng serves customers in China.

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XPeng (XPEV US)

China Consumption Weekly (27 May 2024): Xpeng, Tongcheng, Kanzhun, Gaotu, KE, Bilibili, and Weibo

In 1Q24, Xpeng, Tongcheng, Kanzhun, and Gaotu grew by 62% YoY, 50%, YoY, 43% YoY and 34% YoY. KE’s revenue decreased by 20% YoY in 1Q24 due to the...

Ming Lu

Xpeng Inc. (XPEV US) - Await More Details About Mona

Management’s upbeat view on the Mona and the new B-class sedan has probably given investors more confidence in Xpeng’s substantial sales growth in...

CMB International

Xpeng Inc. (XPEV US) - Margin Lift Mixed with Unexciting New Models

Maintain HOLD. We cut our FY24E net loss by RMB2.6bn to RMB6.7bn, as the 4Q23 GPM beat and the X9 may contribute a larger portion of sales.

CMB International

Xpeng Inc. (XPEV US) - Lack of New Model Catalysts

Although we see possible share price recovery for automakers, Xpeng may lack positive catalysts, as its new models are scheduled in 2H24.

CMB International

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

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