The 60/40 in an Era of American Unexceptionalism
Markets wary of USD and Treasuries as safe havens, investors may consider non-U.S. sovereign bonds for diversification. S&P 500 ripe for short...
379 Views
Known Unknowns and Unknown Unknowns
Trump's trade war aims to isolate China, but with weakening U.S. economy and wavering allies, success is uncertain. Challenge lies in maintaining...
302 Views
Estimating Downside Risk
The S&P 500 is deeply oversold by historical standards. Our estimate of S&P 500 downside is 3900–4500 without a recession, with support at 4800....
309 Views
A Game Theory Analysis of the Trade War
No country in the world will be spared damage in a trade war. A game theory analysis of the relative positions indicates that the U.S. holds a...
609 Views
Crafting Investment Policy in an America First World
Under Trump's America First policy, labor suppliers will benefit while capital suppliers will lose out, leading to a riskier environment with...
340 Views