Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

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Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>How should investors react to the increase in policy uncertainty? The latest FOMC statement and subsequent press conference were full of references to “uncertainty”. </li>
<li>In the short run, stock prices are rebounding from an oversold condition in response to the sanguine reaction of the credit markets to policy uncertainty.</li>
<li>Longer term, equity investors have to be prepared for a deterioration in the growth outlook, which is bearish for equities.</li>
</ul>


How should investors react to the increase in policy uncertainty? The latest FOMC statement and subsequent press conference were full of references to “uncertainty”. 
In the short run, stock prices are rebounding from an oversold condition in response to the sanguine reaction of the credit markets to policy uncertainty.
Longer term, equity investors have to be prepared for a deterioration in the growth outlook, which is bearish for equities.


<ul>
<li>Global equity markets saw a sudden reversal in risk appetite out of the Magnificent Seven.</li>
<li>While risk appetite has recovered in the U.S. equity market and a relief rally will likely continue, the jury is still out on whether the stampede into non-U.S. will continue.</li>
<li>Reiterate our view that any relief rally is unlikely to be sustainable. Investors may be better served by diversifying their U.S. exposure into non-U.S. equities for the coming market cycle.</li>
</ul>


Global equity markets saw a sudden reversal in risk appetite out of the Magnificent Seven.
While risk appetite has recovered in the U.S. equity market and a relief rally will likely continue, the jury is still out on whether the stampede into non-U.S. will continue.
Reiterate our view that any relief rally is unlikely to be sustainable. Investors may be better served by diversifying their U.S. exposure into non-U.S. equities for the coming market cycle.


<ul>
<li>We are intermediate-term cautious about the stock market based on continuing signs of weak breadth.</li>
<li>In the short run, however, sentiment has become overly bearish and the price momentum unwind that sparked the latest downdraft seems to be abating.</li>
<li>Our base case calls for a short-term relief rally, followed by a choppy decline into H2 2025.</li>
</ul>


We are intermediate-term cautious about the stock market based on continuing signs of weak breadth.
In the short run, however, sentiment has become overly bearish and the price momentum unwind that sparked the latest downdraft seems to be abating.
Our base case calls for a short-term relief rally, followed by a choppy decline into H2 2025.


<ul>
<li>The market’s risk appetite was recently dented by a heightened fears that Trump is engineering a recession.</li>
<li>Our analysis of current economic conditions shows low recession risk and our base case calls for a growth scare.</li>
<li>We assess recession odds at one in three and we will continue to monitor the evolution of changes in business confidence and financial conditions to measure future slowdown risk.</li>
</ul>


The market’s risk appetite was recently dented by a heightened fears that Trump is engineering a recession.
Our analysis of current economic conditions shows low recession risk and our base case calls for a growth scare.
We assess recession odds at one in three and we will continue to monitor the evolution of changes in business confidence and financial conditions to measure future slowdown risk.


What Are The Odds of a Trump Recession in 2025?

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 fell last week to test support at the 200 dma.</li>
<li>Many elements of a tactical bottom are there, but not all.</li>
<li>Cutting through all the news-driven noise, we believe the stock market is poised for a relief rally, though it may be in need of a final sentiment flush.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 fell last week to test support at the 200 dma.
Many elements of a tactical bottom are there, but not all.
Cutting through all the news-driven noise, we believe the stock market is poised for a relief rally, though it may be in need of a final sentiment flush.


Cam Hui has been professionally involved in the financial markets since 1985 in a variety of roles, both as a quantitative equity portfolio manager and as a sell-side analyst. He graduated with a degree in Computer Science from the University of British Columbia in 1980 and obtained his CFA Charter in 1989.

Cam Hui
Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst
• Pennock Idea Hub

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Many elements of a tactical bottom are there, but not all. We believe the stock market is poised for a relief rally, though it may be in need of a...

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Making Sense of Policy Uncertainty

​Investors should brace for a potential downturn in the growth outlook as policy uncertainty increases, impacting stock prices in the long term.

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How to Trade the Momentum Reversal

Global equity markets saw a sudden reversal in risk appetite out of the Magnificent Seven. Risk appetite has recovered in the U.S. equity market...

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Why the Market Won't Crash From Here

We are intermediate-term cautious about the stock market based on continuing signs of weak breadth. However, short-run sentiment has become overly...

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What Are The Odds of a Trump Recession in 2025?

Market’s risk appetite was dented by a heightened fears of a Trump recession. Our analysis of current economic conditions shows low recession risk...

Cam Hui

High Drama at the 200 Dma

Many elements of a tactical bottom are there, but not all. We believe the stock market is poised for a relief rally, though it may be in need of a...

Cam Hui

Investors should brace for a potential downturn in the growth outlook as policy uncertainty increases, impacting stock prices in the long term.