Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Trump’s ultimate game plan is to reshore manufacturing by reversing the effects of globalization by harvesting the goodwill from U.S. alliances since the end of World War II.</li>
<li>The long-term costs of these policies are a stall in productivity, and an increase in the cost of capital to U.S. companies through the removal of the USD’s “exorbitant privilege”.</li>
<li>The market is undergoing a regime shift of unknown proportions. The phrase “past returns are no guarantee of future performance” will especially be true today.</li>
</ul>


Trump’s ultimate game plan is to reshore manufacturing by reversing the effects of globalization by harvesting the goodwill from U.S. alliances since the end of World War II.
The long-term costs of these policies are a stall in productivity, and an increase in the cost of capital to U.S. companies through the removal of the USD’s “exorbitant privilege”.
The market is undergoing a regime shift of unknown proportions. The phrase “past returns are no guarantee of future performance” will especially be true today.


Uncharted Investor Waters: From Soft to Hard Power

<ul>
<li>Gold has staged a relative breakout against the S&amp;P 500 and 60/40 portfolio is a signal of financial stress ahead and an era of hard asset outperformance against paper assets.</li>
<li>While we are long-term bulls on gold, it is highly extended and investors seeking to deploy cash into this investment theme should consider the energy sector as an alternative.</li>
<li>Our base-case scenario calls for a tactical recovery in stock prices into April. What happens next will depend on the evolution of economic data.</li>
</ul>


Gold has staged a relative breakout against the S&amp;P 500 and 60/40 portfolio is a signal of financial stress ahead and an era of hard asset outperformance against paper assets.
While we are long-term bulls on gold, it is highly extended and investors seeking to deploy cash into this investment theme should consider the energy sector as an alternative.
Our base-case scenario calls for a tactical recovery in stock prices into April. What happens next will depend on the evolution of economic data.


The Message From Gold's Generational Breakout

<ul>
<li>How should investors react to the increase in policy uncertainty? The latest FOMC statement and subsequent press conference were full of references to “uncertainty”. </li>
<li>In the short run, stock prices are rebounding from an oversold condition in response to the sanguine reaction of the credit markets to policy uncertainty.</li>
<li>Longer term, equity investors have to be prepared for a deterioration in the growth outlook, which is bearish for equities.</li>
</ul>


How should investors react to the increase in policy uncertainty? The latest FOMC statement and subsequent press conference were full of references to “uncertainty”. 
In the short run, stock prices are rebounding from an oversold condition in response to the sanguine reaction of the credit markets to policy uncertainty.
Longer term, equity investors have to be prepared for a deterioration in the growth outlook, which is bearish for equities.


<ul>
<li>Global equity markets saw a sudden reversal in risk appetite out of the Magnificent Seven.</li>
<li>While risk appetite has recovered in the U.S. equity market and a relief rally will likely continue, the jury is still out on whether the stampede into non-U.S. will continue.</li>
<li>Reiterate our view that any relief rally is unlikely to be sustainable. Investors may be better served by diversifying their U.S. exposure into non-U.S. equities for the coming market cycle.</li>
</ul>


Global equity markets saw a sudden reversal in risk appetite out of the Magnificent Seven.
While risk appetite has recovered in the U.S. equity market and a relief rally will likely continue, the jury is still out on whether the stampede into non-U.S. will continue.
Reiterate our view that any relief rally is unlikely to be sustainable. Investors may be better served by diversifying their U.S. exposure into non-U.S. equities for the coming market cycle.


<ul>
<li>We are intermediate-term cautious about the stock market based on continuing signs of weak breadth.</li>
<li>In the short run, however, sentiment has become overly bearish and the price momentum unwind that sparked the latest downdraft seems to be abating.</li>
<li>Our base case calls for a short-term relief rally, followed by a choppy decline into H2 2025.</li>
</ul>


We are intermediate-term cautious about the stock market based on continuing signs of weak breadth.
In the short run, however, sentiment has become overly bearish and the price momentum unwind that sparked the latest downdraft seems to be abating.
Our base case calls for a short-term relief rally, followed by a choppy decline into H2 2025.


Cam Hui has been professionally involved in the financial markets since 1985 in a variety of roles, both as a quantitative equity portfolio manager and as a sell-side analyst. He graduated with a degree in Computer Science from the University of British Columbia in 1980 and obtained his CFA Charter in 1989.

Cam Hui
Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst
• Pennock Idea Hub

Uncharted Investor Waters: From Soft to Hard Power

Trump aims to reshore manufacturing by leveraging U.S. alliances, but risks stalling productivity and increasing capital costs. Market faces an...

Cam Hui

The Message From Gold's Generational Breakout

Gold's breakout against S&P 500 signals financial stress ahead, consider energy sector as alternative investment. Tactical stock recovery expected...

Cam Hui

Making Sense of Policy Uncertainty

Investors should brace for a potential downturn in the growth outlook as policy uncertainty increases, impacting stock prices in the long term.

Cam Hui

How to Trade the Momentum Reversal

Global equity markets saw a sudden reversal in risk appetite out of the Magnificent Seven. Risk appetite has recovered in the U.S. equity market...

Cam Hui

Why the Market Won't Crash From Here

We are intermediate-term cautious about the stock market based on continuing signs of weak breadth. However, short-run sentiment has become overly...

Cam Hui

Uncharted Investor Waters: From Soft to Hard Power

​Trump aims to reshore manufacturing by leveraging U.S. alliances, but risks stalling productivity and increasing capital costs. Market faces an...

Cam Hui

The Message From Gold's Generational Breakout

​Gold's breakout against S&P 500 signals financial stress ahead, consider energy sector as alternative investment. Tactical stock recovery expected...

Cam Hui

Making Sense of Policy Uncertainty

​Investors should brace for a potential downturn in the growth outlook as policy uncertainty increases, impacting stock prices in the long term.

Cam Hui

How to Trade the Momentum Reversal

Global equity markets saw a sudden reversal in risk appetite out of the Magnificent Seven. Risk appetite has recovered in the U.S. equity market...

Cam Hui

Why the Market Won't Crash From Here

We are intermediate-term cautious about the stock market based on continuing signs of weak breadth. However, short-run sentiment has become overly...

Cam Hui

Trump aims to reshore manufacturing by leveraging U.S. alliances, but risks stalling productivity and increasing capital costs. Market faces an...

Gold's breakout against S&P 500 signals financial stress ahead, consider energy sector as alternative investment. Tactical stock recovery expected...

Investors should brace for a potential downturn in the growth outlook as policy uncertainty increases, impacting stock prices in the long term.