Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

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Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is deeply oversold by historical standards, but it remains an open question of whether stock prices will decline further after a short-term bounce.</li>
<li>Our estimate of S&amp;P 500 downside is 3900–4500 without a recession, with strong technical support at 4800. Downside risk with a recession is 3300-3800.</li>
<li>Current readings indicate elevated recession risk based on consensus policy expectations, which can change at any time.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 is deeply oversold by historical standards, but it remains an open question of whether stock prices will decline further after a short-term bounce.
Our estimate of S&amp;P 500 downside is 3900–4500 without a recession, with strong technical support at 4800. Downside risk with a recession is 3300-3800.
Current readings indicate elevated recession risk based on consensus policy expectations, which can change at any time.


<ul>
<li>No country in the world will be spared damage in a trade war.</li>
<li>Both the U.S. and China have outlined positions that are little more than posturing.</li>
<li>However, a game theory analysis of the relative positions indicates that the U.S. holds a weaker hand than China.</li>
</ul>


No country in the world will be spared damage in a trade war.
Both the U.S. and China have outlined positions that are little more than posturing.
However, a game theory analysis of the relative positions indicates that the U.S. holds a weaker hand than China.


<ul>
<li>If Trump succeeds in his America First policy, the new winners will be America’s  suppliers of labour. The obvious loser under Trump’s win-lose worldview will be the suppliers of capital.</li>
<li>The investment environment in an America First world will be riskier. Expect more sovereign defaults and restructurings.</li>
<li>The benchmark portfolio under the new regime should be a basket of global assets.</li>
</ul>


If Trump succeeds in his America First policy, the new winners will be America’s  suppliers of labour. The obvious loser under Trump’s win-lose worldview will be the suppliers of capital.
The investment environment in an America First world will be riskier. Expect more sovereign defaults and restructurings.
The benchmark portfolio under the new regime should be a basket of global assets.


Crafting Investment Policy in an America First World

<ul>
<li>The latest Trump tariff announcements have sparked a risk-off stampede.</li>
<li>Even though the macro and fundamental backdrop is deteriorating, sellers are becoming exhausted and a relief rally should materialize in the coming week.</li>
<li>Both the top-down outlook and technical structure of the stock market argue for a bear market, and any rally should be interpreted as a countertrend move.</li>
</ul>


The latest Trump tariff announcements have sparked a risk-off stampede.
Even though the macro and fundamental backdrop is deteriorating, sellers are becoming exhausted and a relief rally should materialize in the coming week.
Both the top-down outlook and technical structure of the stock market argue for a bear market, and any rally should be interpreted as a countertrend move.


A Big Bear, or Just A Plain Vanilla Correction?

<ul>
<li>Trump’s ultimate game plan is to reshore manufacturing by reversing the effects of globalization by harvesting the goodwill from U.S. alliances since the end of World War II.</li>
<li>The long-term costs of these policies are a stall in productivity, and an increase in the cost of capital to U.S. companies through the removal of the USD’s “exorbitant privilege”.</li>
<li>The market is undergoing a regime shift of unknown proportions. The phrase “past returns are no guarantee of future performance” will especially be true today.</li>
</ul>


Trump’s ultimate game plan is to reshore manufacturing by reversing the effects of globalization by harvesting the goodwill from U.S. alliances since the end of World War II.
The long-term costs of these policies are a stall in productivity, and an increase in the cost of capital to U.S. companies through the removal of the USD’s “exorbitant privilege”.
The market is undergoing a regime shift of unknown proportions. The phrase “past returns are no guarantee of future performance” will especially be true today.


Uncharted Investor Waters: From Soft to Hard Power

Cam Hui has been professionally involved in the financial markets since 1985 in a variety of roles, both as a quantitative equity portfolio manager and as a sell-side analyst. He graduated with a degree in Computer Science from the University of British Columbia in 1980 and obtained his CFA Charter in 1989.