European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Vector Group Ltd., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells cigarettes in the United States.  The Company is also involved in the real estate business through its subsidiary.

<ul>
<li>JT plans to acquire 100% of Vector Group at <strong>$15.00/share</strong>, a 29.9% premium. The offer requires over 50% acceptance, with Board support and completion expected by late 2024, pending approvals.</li>
<li>The shares go ex-dividend on August 30, with payment on September 12. Adjusted for the dividend, shares trade at a -0.4% gross spread. My fair value estimated is $15.92/share.</li>
<li>Consensus sets a target price of $16/share. JT may consider raising its offer to this level (6.67%), especially if they see Vector as a strong long-term investment.</li>
</ul>


JT plans to acquire 100% of Vector Group at $15.00/share, a 29.9% premium. The offer requires over 50% acceptance, with Board support and completion expected by late 2024, pending approvals.
The shares go ex-dividend on August 30, with payment on September 12. Adjusted for the dividend, shares trade at a -0.4% gross spread. My fair value estimated is $15.92/share.
Consensus sets a target price of $16/share. JT may consider raising its offer to this level (6.67%), especially if they see Vector as a strong long-term investment.


Japan Tobacco/Vector Group: Possible Bump-Up?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Workday, Inc. provides enterprise cloud-based applications. The Company offers human capital, spend, and financial management, as well as payroll, initiatives and higher education solutions. Workday serves the finance, healthcare, manufacturing, education, and technology industries worldwide.

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two regular changes in September 2024. There are also several live M&amp;A events which could trigger intra-review index changes in the late-2024/early-2025.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in September 2024. There are also several live M&amp;A events which could trigger intra-review index changes in the late-2024/early-2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard S&P500 Sep 24 Rebal: Palantir, Apollo, Workday Racing for Mega$ Flows

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, Ortex

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

Ortex

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Free float is forecasted to increase from ~94% to 100% in S&amp;P 500 and other US and Global indices after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berkshire-hathaway-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1044:1" rel="noopener">Berkshire</a> halved its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> .</li>
<li>Forecasted demand from S&amp;P 500 and S&amp;P TMI is 164.2m shares, $37.1bn and 3.0 ADV at the close of 20 September 2024.</li>
<li>Materialization of the free float increase is uncertain due to debatable strategic shareholder classification. ETF ratios and current free float improve the confidence of the forecast. </li>
</ul>


Free float is forecasted to increase from ~94% to 100% in S&amp;P 500 and other US and Global indices after Berkshire halved its stake in Apple (AAPL US) .
Forecasted demand from S&amp;P 500 and S&amp;P TMI is 164.2m shares, $37.1bn and 3.0 ADV at the close of 20 September 2024.
Materialization of the free float increase is uncertain due to debatable strategic shareholder classification. ETF ratios and current free float improve the confidence of the forecast. 


Apple (AAPL): Berkshire’s Sell-Off Triggers $37bn Demand from S&P 500

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berkshire-hathaway-inc-cl-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8635:1" rel="noopener">Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US)</a> held over 5% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>. Nearly half of that was sold in the June quarter to take the holding to 2.63%. </li>
<li>Berkshire's selling should result in an increase in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>'s free float in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> and other related indices.</li>
<li>There will also be large buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> ETF if the proposals in the market consultation are implemented.</li>
</ul>



Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US) held over 5% of Apple (AAPL US). Nearly half of that was sold in the June quarter to take the holding to 2.63%. 
Berkshire's selling should result in an increase in Apple (AAPL US)'s free float in the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and other related indices.
There will also be large buying in Apple (AAPL US) from the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) ETF if the proposals in the market consultation are implemented.


Apple Inc (AAPL US): $43bn Passive Buying Driven by Berkshire Selling & Market Consultation

VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF / Event-Driven

VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF is an exchange traded fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund's objective is to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the MVIS Junior Gold Miners Index. The Fund will normally invest at least 80% of its total assets in securities that comprise the Fund's benchmark index.

VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)

<ul>
<li>The MV J-Gold Miners index represents the performance small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.</li>
<li>This index is reviewed semi-annually in March and September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the latest lists of potential ADDs and DELs for the index rebal event in September 2024.</li>
</ul>


The MV J-Gold Miners index represents the performance small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
This index is reviewed semi-annually in March and September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
In this insight, we take a look at the latest lists of potential ADDs and DELs for the index rebal event in September 2024.


Quiddity Leaderboard MV Jr Gold Miners Sep 24:  Mergers Mean Possible Up-And-Out DELETEs

US Event-Driven
US event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

Japan Tobacco/Vector Group: Possible Bump-Up?

JT plans to acquire 100% of Vector Group at $15.00/share, a 29.9% premium. The offer requires over 50% acceptance, with Board support and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P500 Sep 24 Rebal: Palantir, Apollo, Workday Racing for Mega$ Flows

S&P500 rebals are notoriously difficult to predict because of significant index committee discretion. Sep24 could see two adds, two deletes. Q4...

Travis Lundy

Apple (AAPL): Berkshire’s Sell-Off Triggers $37bn Demand from S&P 500

Berkshire’s halving of its stake in Apple is forecasted to increase free float from 94% to 100% in S&P 500, generating a demand of over $37bn for...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Apple Inc (AAPL US): $43bn Passive Buying Driven by Berkshire Selling & Market Consultation

Berkshire selling increases Apple's float. Market consultation for the Select Sector indices increases Apple's weight in the XLK ETF. Together,...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard MV Jr Gold Miners Sep 24: Mergers Mean Possible Up-And-Out DELETEs

The MV Junior Gold Miners Index is up for rebalance in September. There are no LARGE changes expected. There are two obvious smallcap deletes. Some...

Travis Lundy