US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, Ortex

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

Ortex

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

ServiceTitan, Inc. provides software solutions. The Company develops a trade platform that offer collection of field service activities required to install, maintain, and service the infrastructure and systems of residences and commercial buildings tradespeople like local plumber, roofer, landscaper, HVAC technician, and others who are employed in the trades.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/servicetitan-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44109:1" rel="noopener">ServiceTitan (TTAN US)</a> is ineligible for the one Global Index for the next 12 months due to undisclosed shareholdings which remain locked for one year following the IPO.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/servicetitan-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44109:1" rel="noopener">ServiceTitan (TTAN US)</a> is ineligible for the next 6 months for the US and the other Global Index because it fails public voting rights.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/servicetitan-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44109:1" rel="noopener">ServiceTitan's</a> earliest addition is forecasted for September 2025 in the one Global Index following the IPO lock-up expiry unless there is a material conversion of unlisted shares.</li>
</ul>



ServiceTitan (TTAN US) is ineligible for the one Global Index for the next 12 months due to undisclosed shareholdings which remain locked for one year following the IPO.

ServiceTitan (TTAN US) is ineligible for the next 6 months for the US and the other Global Index because it fails public voting rights.

ServiceTitan's earliest addition is forecasted for September 2025 in the one Global Index following the IPO lock-up expiry unless there is a material conversion of unlisted shares.


ServiceTitan (TTAN US): Lock-Ups Prevent Inclusion in US & Global Indices

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX INDEX) </a>dropped 3.6% following the FED’s communication of fewer than previously expected rate cuts in 2025. Quantitative analysis suggests that the Index is oversold.</li>
<li>Implied volatility spikes up from low levels to above median levels. The Skew steepens considerably as traders brace for more downside.</li>
<li>Risk Reversals are attractively priced right now in historic comparison. Parameters of a zero-cost risk reversal strategy are presented as an example.</li>
</ul>


The Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX INDEX) dropped 3.6% following the FED’s communication of fewer than previously expected rate cuts in 2025. Quantitative analysis suggests that the Index is oversold.
Implied volatility spikes up from low levels to above median levels. The Skew steepens considerably as traders brace for more downside.
Risk Reversals are attractively priced right now in historic comparison. Parameters of a zero-cost risk reversal strategy are presented as an example.


EQD | Nasdaq-100 Index Option Opportunity - Tactical Play on an Oversold Market and Volatility Skew

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX)</a> selling lead the index straight into OVERSOLD territory on December 18th. </li>
<li>The sell off is overdone, our DAILY NDX model suggests a high probability LONG trade for Thursday.
</li>
<li>High volatility may affect trades, triggering stops and making it difficult to hold without taking the risk of big losses, Vertical Spreads (Bull PUTs) are a better instrument choice.
</li>
</ul>


The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) selling lead the index straight into OVERSOLD territory on December 18th. 
The sell off is overdone, our DAILY NDX model suggests a high probability LONG trade for Thursday.

High volatility may affect trades, triggering stops and making it difficult to hold without taking the risk of big losses, Vertical Spreads (Bull PUTs) are a better instrument choice.



EQD | NDX OVERSOLD: A High Probability LONG Trade Idea

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crude-oil" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1" rel="noopener">Crude Oil (CL1)</a> has been steadily downtrending since June 2022. More recently (from the start of October) a flat bottom started to form, with attempts to rise higher.</li>
<li>The front-month future (Feb25) is range bound at the moment, between 71 (top) and 66 (bottom).</li>
<li>Our models see a strong barrier at 73, and a decent support at 67 for the next 2 weeks, check the insight to get all the details.</li>
</ul>



Crude Oil (CL1) has been steadily downtrending since June 2022. More recently (from the start of October) a flat bottom started to form, with attempts to rise higher.
The front-month future (Feb25) is range bound at the moment, between 71 (top) and 66 (bottom).
Our models see a strong barrier at 73, and a decent support at 67 for the next 2 weeks, check the insight to get all the details.


EQD | Crude Oil Hitting a Wall Before $73 - Eyeing $67 on the Pullback

Palantir Technologies Inc. develops software to analyze information. The Company offers solutions support many kinds of data including structured, unstructured, relational, temporal, and geospatial. Palantir Technologies serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/palantir-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27728:1" rel="noopener">Palantir Technologies (PLTR US)</a> is anticipated to be the largest addition following its eligibility, which was secured through a listing transfer from NYSE to Nasdaq just before the cut-off date.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/super-micro-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7921:1" rel="noopener">Super Micro Computer (SMCI US)</a> is projected to exit the index despite its recent entry in July 2024, as it has ranked above the exit threshold of 125.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> is not an expected deletion due to special ADR market cap treatment. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/equinix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17409:1" rel="noopener">Equinix Inc (EQIX US)</a> is not an expected addition because it is a REIT.</li>
</ul>



Palantir Technologies (PLTR US) is anticipated to be the largest addition following its eligibility, which was secured through a listing transfer from NYSE to Nasdaq just before the cut-off date.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI US) is projected to exit the index despite its recent entry in July 2024, as it has ranked above the exit threshold of 125.

ARM Holdings (ARM US) is not an expected deletion due to special ADR market cap treatment. Equinix Inc (EQIX US) is not an expected addition because it is a REIT.


Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecast (Final): Palantir's Last-Minute Entry; Arm's Subtle Retention

US Event-Driven
US event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

ServiceTitan (TTAN US): Lock-Ups Prevent Inclusion in US & Global Indices

ServiceTitan (TTAN US) is ineligible for US & Global indices for the next 6-12 months due to locked IPO and undisclosed shareholders which result...

Dimitris Ioannidis

EQD | Nasdaq-100 Index Option Opportunity - Tactical Play on an Oversold Market and Volatility Skew

The Nasdaq-100 Index dropped 3.6% after the FED's rate cut news, with quantitative analysis suggesting oversold conditions. Historically cheap...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | NDX OVERSOLD: A High Probability LONG Trade Idea

Nasdaq 100 Index hit oversold territory on Dec 18, our DAILY models suggest a high probability LONG trade for Thursday. Consider using ATM/OTM...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Crude Oil Hitting a Wall Before $73 - Eyeing $67 on the Pullback

Crude Oil has been forming a flat bottom since October. The front-month future is range bound between 71 and 66, our models see a strong barrier...

Nico Rosti

Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecast (Final): Palantir's Last-Minute Entry; Arm's Subtle Retention

F1: 100%. All of the forecasts matched the index changes announced at the close of Friday 13 December. SMCI fell more than 11% in premarket trading...

Dimitris Ioannidis

ServiceTitan (TTAN US): Lock-Ups Prevent Inclusion in US & Global Indices

​ServiceTitan (TTAN US) is ineligible for US & Global indices for the next 6-12 months due to locked IPO and undisclosed shareholders which result...

Dimitris Ioannidis

EQD | Nasdaq-100 Index Option Opportunity - Tactical Play on an Oversold Market and Volatility Skew

​The Nasdaq-100 Index dropped 3.6% after the FED's rate cut news, with quantitative analysis suggesting oversold conditions. Historically cheap...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | NDX OVERSOLD: A High Probability LONG Trade Idea

​Nasdaq 100 Index hit oversold territory on Dec 18, our DAILY models suggest a high probability LONG trade for Thursday. Consider using ATM/OTM...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Crude Oil Hitting a Wall Before $73 - Eyeing $67 on the Pullback

​Crude Oil has been forming a flat bottom since October. The front-month future is range bound between 71 and 66, our models see a strong barrier...

Nico Rosti

Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecast (Final): Palantir's Last-Minute Entry; Arm's Subtle Retention

F1: 100%. All of the forecasts matched the index changes announced at the close of Friday 13 December. SMCI fell more than 11% in premarket trading...

Dimitris Ioannidis

ServiceTitan (TTAN US) is ineligible for US & Global indices for the next 6-12 months due to locked IPO and undisclosed shareholders which result...

The Nasdaq-100 Index dropped 3.6% after the FED's rate cut news, with quantitative analysis suggesting oversold conditions. Historically cheap...

Nasdaq 100 Index hit oversold territory on Dec 18, our DAILY models suggest a high probability LONG trade for Thursday. Consider using ATM/OTM...

Crude Oil has been forming a flat bottom since October. The front-month future is range bound between 71 and 66, our models see a strong barrier...