Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

<ul>
<li>A detailed analysis of price patterns, implied vol and the earnings implied jump in TSLA options compared to historical outcomes. </li>
<li>Pre- and post-earnings price movements are examined to assess directional tendencies, patterns and magnitude.</li>
<li>Price returns in the 1-month following earnings show a distinctly different pattern between beats and misses. </li>
</ul>


A detailed analysis of price patterns, implied vol and the earnings implied jump in TSLA options compared to historical outcomes. 
Pre- and post-earnings price movements are examined to assess directional tendencies, patterns and magnitude.
Price returns in the 1-month following earnings show a distinctly different pattern between beats and misses. 


TSLA Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The financial shock and greater uncertainty, all else equal, imply a disinflationary backdrop</li>
<li>The current trade posture alone implies either a one-off or a more persistent inflationary environment</li>
<li>But comprehending the shocks might not be the real challenge, rather it is about unraveling what is harnessed as a pretext and what is not     </li>
</ul>


The financial shock and greater uncertainty, all else equal, imply a disinflationary backdrop
The current trade posture alone implies either a one-off or a more persistent inflationary environment
But comprehending the shocks might not be the real challenge, rather it is about unraveling what is harnessed as a pretext and what is not     


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

<ul><li>After a couple of weeks of indecisive positioning, CFTC data for the week through April 8 showed a more obvious shift in Non-Commercial (speculative) traders’ sentiment against the USD.</li><li>Aggregate net USD shorts increased USD5.5bn, taking the prior week’s small, speculative net USD long to the biggest bear punt on the USD in six months.</li><li>The change in sentiment was reflected in positioning among Real Money (institutional) and Leveraged (hedge fund) traders as well. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

After a couple of weeks of indecisive positioning, CFTC data for the week through April 8 showed a more obvious shift in Non-Commercial (speculative) traders’ sentiment against the USD.Aggregate net USD shorts increased USD5.5bn, taking the prior week’s small, speculative net USD long to the biggest bear punt on the USD in six months.The change in sentiment was reflected in positioning among Real Money (institutional) and Leveraged (hedge fund) traders as well. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Weakens, JPY Bullish Mood Builds

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

Chagee Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides a wide range of tea drinks products and services. Chagee Holdings serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Chagee Holdings (CHA US) priced a full-size deal of 14.7mm shares at $28.00  (high-end of the range) and Opened at $33.75 for a 20.5% gain.</li>
<li>The immediate IPO pipeline is primed and ready to go, however, the current uncertainty in the market due to the everchanging economic winds is forcing companies to bide their time. </li>
<li>Chagee was still able to achieve a desirable outcome by meeting three criteria: Large Anchor orders, Smaller Transaction, Attractive Valuation</li>
</ul>


Chagee Holdings (CHA US) priced a full-size deal of 14.7mm shares at $28.00  (high-end of the range) and Opened at $33.75 for a 20.5% gain.
The immediate IPO pipeline is primed and ready to go, however, the current uncertainty in the market due to the everchanging economic winds is forcing companies to bide their time. 
Chagee was still able to achieve a desirable outcome by meeting three criteria: Large Anchor orders, Smaller Transaction, Attractive Valuation


Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): IPO Valuation Highly Attractive Drawing Strong Interest on Day One

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

Halliburton Company provides energy services and engineering and construction services, as well as manufactures products for the energy industry.  The Company offers services and products and integrated solutions to customers in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas.

<ul>
<li>Halliburton’s Q1 revenue is set to drop 9.1% YoY, with EPS down 21.1%, driven by soft North American activity and weak oil prices.</li>
<li>Halliburton has underperformed the S&amp;P 500, XLE, and peers SLB and Baker Hughes, weighed down by its greater U.S. shale exposure and rising input costs.</li>
<li>Despite near-term headwinds, analysts retain a “Buy” rating on Halliburton, citing strong cash flows, a solid balance sheet, and strategic investments.</li>
</ul>


Halliburton’s Q1 revenue is set to drop 9.1% YoY, with EPS down 21.1%, driven by soft North American activity and weak oil prices.
Halliburton has underperformed the S&amp;P 500, XLE, and peers SLB and Baker Hughes, weighed down by its greater U.S. shale exposure and rising input costs.
Despite near-term headwinds, analysts retain a “Buy” rating on Halliburton, citing strong cash flows, a solid balance sheet, and strategic investments.


[Earnings Preview] Halliburton Pressured by North American Slowdown and Tariffs

United States
Insights on the United States (USA)

TSLA Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

Analysis of TSLA options reveals distinct patterns in price movements pre- and post-earnings, with notable differences between beats and misses.

John Ley

Pretexts, My Dear Boy, Pretexts

Do we need to distinguish between shocks and pretexts to better navigate the current environment of heightened uncertainty?

Thomas Lam

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Weakens, JPY Bullish Mood Builds

After a couple of weeks of indecisive positioning, CFTC data for the week through April 8 showed a more obvious shift in Non-Commercial...

Scotiabank

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): IPO Valuation Highly Attractive Drawing Strong Interest on Day One

Chagee Holdings IPO sees strong debut despite market uncertainty, meeting criteria for success with large anchor orders, smaller transaction, and...

IPO Boutique

[Earnings Preview] Halliburton Pressured by North American Slowdown and Tariffs

Halliburton's Q1 revenue and EPS are expected to decline due to soft North American activity and weak oil prices. Analysts maintain a "Buy"...

Mint Finance

TSLA Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

​Analysis of TSLA options reveals distinct patterns in price movements pre- and post-earnings, with notable differences between beats and misses.

John Ley

Pretexts, My Dear Boy, Pretexts

Do we need to distinguish between shocks and pretexts to better navigate the current environment of heightened uncertainty?

Thomas Lam

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Weakens, JPY Bullish Mood Builds

After a couple of weeks of indecisive positioning, CFTC data for the week through April 8 showed a more obvious shift in Non-Commercial...

Scotiabank

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): IPO Valuation Highly Attractive Drawing Strong Interest on Day One

​Chagee Holdings IPO sees strong debut despite market uncertainty, meeting criteria for success with large anchor orders, smaller transaction, and...

IPO Boutique

[Earnings Preview] Halliburton Pressured by North American Slowdown and Tariffs

​Halliburton's Q1 revenue and EPS are expected to decline due to soft North American activity and weak oil prices. Analysts maintain a "Buy"...

Mint Finance

Analysis of TSLA options reveals distinct patterns in price movements pre- and post-earnings, with notable differences between beats and misses.

Chagee Holdings IPO sees strong debut despite market uncertainty, meeting criteria for success with large anchor orders, smaller transaction, and...

Halliburton's Q1 revenue and EPS are expected to decline due to soft North American activity and weak oil prices. Analysts maintain a "Buy"...