Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

<ul>
<li>WTI futures rose 1.6% for the week ending 21/Mar, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and declining U.S. fuel inventories.</li>
<li>The U.S. rig count rose by one to 593. The oil rig count dropped by one to 486 and gas rigs rose by two to 102.</li>
<li>WTI OI PCR fell to 0.90 on 21/Mar from 0.93 on 14/Mar. Call OI decreased by 12.2% WoW, while put OI dropped by 14.6%.</li>
</ul>


WTI futures rose 1.6% for the week ending 21/Mar, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and declining U.S. fuel inventories.
The U.S. rig count rose by one to 593. The oil rig count dropped by one to 486 and gas rigs rose by two to 102.
WTI OI PCR fell to 0.90 on 21/Mar from 0.93 on 14/Mar. Call OI decreased by 12.2% WoW, while put OI dropped by 14.6%.


[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/12] WTI Marks Second Weekly Gain on Rising Geopolitical Tensions

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 21/Mar, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 3% due to milder weather forecasts and larger-than-expected build in the U.S. natural gas inventories.</li>
<li>Henry Hub dropped by 6.4% on 20/Mar (Thu) after the EIA reported a 9 Bcf build in U.S. inventories. Prices ended the week below the 9-day and 21-day moving averages.</li>
<li>Henry Hub OI PCR increased to 1.05 on 21/Mar from 1.03 on 14/Mar. Call OI rose by 3.6% WoW, while put OI grew by 5%.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 21/Mar, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 3% due to milder weather forecasts and larger-than-expected build in the U.S. natural gas inventories.
Henry Hub dropped by 6.4% on 20/Mar (Thu) after the EIA reported a 9 Bcf build in U.S. inventories. Prices ended the week below the 9-day and 21-day moving averages.
Henry Hub OI PCR increased to 1.05 on 21/Mar from 1.03 on 14/Mar. Call OI rose by 3.6% WoW, while put OI grew by 5%.


[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/12] Henry Hub Falls for Second Week on Milder Weather Outlook

<ul>
<li>OPEC maintains its 2025 oil demand growth forecast at 1.45m bpd, while the IEA lowered its estimate due to weaker-than-expected economic activity.</li>
<li>The EIA reduced its 2025 global liquid fuels production forecast to 1.4m bpd, down from 1.7m bpd, while maintaining its 2026 forecast at 1.6m bpd.</li>
<li>Rising non-OPEC+ production, led by the U.S., Canada, and Brazil, may result in an oversupplied market by late 2025.</li>
</ul>


OPEC maintains its 2025 oil demand growth forecast at 1.45m bpd, while the IEA lowered its estimate due to weaker-than-expected economic activity.
The EIA reduced its 2025 global liquid fuels production forecast to 1.4m bpd, down from 1.7m bpd, while maintaining its 2026 forecast at 1.6m bpd.
Rising non-OPEC+ production, led by the U.S., Canada, and Brazil, may result in an oversupplied market by late 2025.


OPEC Holds Demand Outlook as EIA and IEA Lower Forecasts; Henry Hub Prices Set to Climb Through 2026

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 14/Mar, U.S. crude inventories rose 1.7m barrels (vs. expectations of 0.8m build), gasoline stockpiles fell below expectations, and distillate inventories declined more than anticipated.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose by 9 Bcf for the week ending 14/Mar, more than analyst expectations of a 3 Bcf build. Inventories are 10% below the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Barclays cut Exxon's price target to USD 135 from USD 137 with an Overweight rating, while Citigroup lowered Occidental's target to USD 51 from USD 56 with a Neutral rating.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 14/Mar, U.S. crude inventories rose 1.7m barrels (vs. expectations of 0.8m build), gasoline stockpiles fell below expectations, and distillate inventories declined more than anticipated.
US natural gas inventories rose by 9 Bcf for the week ending 14/Mar, more than analyst expectations of a 3 Bcf build. Inventories are 10% below the 5-year seasonal average.
Barclays cut Exxon's price target to USD 135 from USD 137 with an Overweight rating, while Citigroup lowered Occidental's target to USD 51 from USD 56 with a Neutral rating.


[ETP 2025/12] WTI Gains on Geopolitical Uncertainty, Henry Hub Falls on Rising Nat-Gas Stockpiles

Equity Bottom-Up

Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company with operations in countries located around the world.  The Company produces and transports crude oil and natural gas.  Chevron also refines, markets, and distributes fuels as well as is involved in chemical operations, mining operations, power generation and energy services.

<ul>
<li>Chevron’s 2024 revenue rose 0.9% YoY, beating estimates by 4.7%, but EPS fell 23.5%, missing estimates by 1.2%. The downstream segment reported its first loss since 2020.</li>
<li>Chevron’s Q4 production fell 1.2% YoY but 2024 output hit a record, with global and U.S. production up 7% and 19% YoY, driven by growth in the Permian.</li>
<li>Chevron raised its quarterly dividend by 5% to USD 1.71/share and reaffirmed plans to generate USD 10 billion in free cash flow over two years.</li>
</ul>


Chevron’s 2024 revenue rose 0.9% YoY, beating estimates by 4.7%, but EPS fell 23.5%, missing estimates by 1.2%. The downstream segment reported its first loss since 2020.
Chevron’s Q4 production fell 1.2% YoY but 2024 output hit a record, with global and U.S. production up 7% and 19% YoY, driven by growth in the Permian.
Chevron raised its quarterly dividend by 5% to USD 1.71/share and reaffirmed plans to generate USD 10 billion in free cash flow over two years.


[Earnings Review] Chevron Missed Expectations Due to Low Margins and High Costs

Mint Finance
Deep Fundamental Analysis

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/12] WTI Marks Second Weekly Gain on Rising Geopolitical Tensions

WTI futures rose due to Middle East tensions and lower U.S. fuel inventories, while U.S. rig count saw a slight increase. OI PCR fell with...

Mint Finance

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/12] Henry Hub Falls for Second Week on Milder Weather Outlook

U.S. natural gas prices fell by 3% last week due to milder weather forecasts and larger inventories, with Henry Hub dropping 6.4% on 20/Mar.

Mint Finance

OPEC Holds Demand Outlook as EIA and IEA Lower Forecasts; Henry Hub Prices Set to Climb Through 2026

OPEC and IEA differ on 2025 oil demand growth forecasts. EIA also lowered global liquid fuels production forecast due to rising non-OPEC+...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/12] WTI Gains on Geopolitical Uncertainty, Henry Hub Falls on Rising Nat-Gas Stockpiles

US crude inventories rose more than expected, gasoline stockpiles fell short, and natural gas inventories exceeded analyst predictions. Barclays...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] Chevron Missed Expectations Due to Low Margins and High Costs

Chevron's 2024 revenue beats estimates, but EPS falls as downstream segment reports first loss since 2020. Production fell in Q4 but hit record...

Mint Finance

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/12] WTI Marks Second Weekly Gain on Rising Geopolitical Tensions

​WTI futures rose due to Middle East tensions and lower U.S. fuel inventories, while U.S. rig count saw a slight increase. OI PCR fell with...

Mint Finance

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/12] Henry Hub Falls for Second Week on Milder Weather Outlook

​U.S. natural gas prices fell by 3% last week due to milder weather forecasts and larger inventories, with Henry Hub dropping 6.4% on 20/Mar.

Mint Finance

OPEC Holds Demand Outlook as EIA and IEA Lower Forecasts; Henry Hub Prices Set to Climb Through 2026

​OPEC and IEA differ on 2025 oil demand growth forecasts. EIA also lowered global liquid fuels production forecast due to rising non-OPEC+...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/12] WTI Gains on Geopolitical Uncertainty, Henry Hub Falls on Rising Nat-Gas Stockpiles

​US crude inventories rose more than expected, gasoline stockpiles fell short, and natural gas inventories exceeded analyst predictions. Barclays...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] Chevron Missed Expectations Due to Low Margins and High Costs

​Chevron's 2024 revenue beats estimates, but EPS falls as downstream segment reports first loss since 2020. Production fell in Q4 but hit record...

Mint Finance

WTI futures rose due to Middle East tensions and lower U.S. fuel inventories, while U.S. rig count saw a slight increase. OI PCR fell with...

U.S. natural gas prices fell by 3% last week due to milder weather forecasts and larger inventories, with Henry Hub dropping 6.4% on 20/Mar.

OPEC and IEA differ on 2025 oil demand growth forecasts. EIA also lowered global liquid fuels production forecast due to rising non-OPEC+...

US crude inventories rose more than expected, gasoline stockpiles fell short, and natural gas inventories exceeded analyst predictions. Barclays...

Chevron's 2024 revenue beats estimates, but EPS falls as downstream segment reports first loss since 2020. Production fell in Q4 but hit record...