Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>SGX Iron Ore Futures fell $2.78/ton WoW, closing at $99.45/ton on April 4 after breaching key support levels and trading in a wider $5.95/ton range.</li>
<li>U.S.–China tariff escalation led to a MACD-confirmed downtrend and prices plunging below 100- and 200-day DMAs, signaling heightened bearish momentum.</li>
<li>Despite sharp price drops, implied volatility declined across all deltas reaching new lows for the year, with skew falling to +0.5%. </li>
</ul>


SGX Iron Ore Futures fell $2.78/ton WoW, closing at $99.45/ton on April 4 after breaching key support levels and trading in a wider $5.95/ton range.
U.S.–China tariff escalation led to a MACD-confirmed downtrend and prices plunging below 100- and 200-day DMAs, signaling heightened bearish momentum.
Despite sharp price drops, implied volatility declined across all deltas reaching new lows for the year, with skew falling to +0.5%. 


[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/​14]: IO Volatility Set to Rise Amid Trade Tensions

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>Executive Chairman John Welborn presented the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4KUxqrU1aU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">investment case</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> at the Ignite Investment Summit in Hong Kong on March 26th/27th.  </li>
<li>The company's imminent production of 4 million tons of iron ore (~$100 USD/ton), is projected to generate AUD 200 million in operating cash flow, matching its current market capitalization.</li>
<li>The company briefly touched on its M&amp;A opportunity with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coziron-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17698:1" rel="noopener">Coziron Resources (CZR AU)</a>, which is expected to add 40 million tons of reserves and further increase production. </li>
</ul>


Executive Chairman John Welborn presented the investment case for Fenix Resources (FEX AU) at the Ignite Investment Summit in Hong Kong on March 26th/27th.  
The company's imminent production of 4 million tons of iron ore (~$100 USD/ton), is projected to generate AUD 200 million in operating cash flow, matching its current market capitalization.
The company briefly touched on its M&amp;A opportunity with Coziron Resources (CZR AU), which is expected to add 40 million tons of reserves and further increase production. 


Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Highlights From The Ignite Investment Summit

<ul>
<li>SGX IO Futures rose $2.25/ton over the week, closing at $102.25/ton, buoyed by seasonal steel demand and technical support above 9D and 21D DMAs.</li>
<li>Implied volatility in iron ore options fell sharply YoY (ATM IV -36%, 10-delta puts -41%), making long volatility positions more affordable.</li>
<li>Futures and options open interest rose 6.85% WoW, with Financial Institutions increasing net long positions, reinforcing bullish positioning.</li>
</ul>


SGX IO Futures rose $2.25/ton over the week, closing at $102.25/ton, buoyed by seasonal steel demand and technical support above 9D and 21D DMAs.
Implied volatility in iron ore options fell sharply YoY (ATM IV -36%, 10-delta puts -41%), making long volatility positions more affordable.
Futures and options open interest rose 6.85% WoW, with Financial Institutions increasing net long positions, reinforcing bullish positioning.


[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/13]: Bullish Momentum Builds as IV Eases

<ul>
<li>Mixed data from China shows property prices down 5-7% YoY and lower land sales YTD, while weaker U.S. consumer sentiment has also negatively impacted overall commodity prices.</li>
<li>China's total social financing (TSF) for Jan-Feb reached 9.29 trillion RMB (Vs. consensus 9.75 trillion RMB). However, this figure is +16.6% YoY, signaling that substantial stimulus measures are in effect.</li>
<li>We expect iron ore prices to remain rangebound between 95-120 USD/ton over the next few months as cost support is strong at the 100 USD/ton level. </li>
</ul>


Mixed data from China shows property prices down 5-7% YoY and lower land sales YTD, while weaker U.S. consumer sentiment has also negatively impacted overall commodity prices.
China's total social financing (TSF) for Jan-Feb reached 9.29 trillion RMB (Vs. consensus 9.75 trillion RMB). However, this figure is +16.6% YoY, signaling that substantial stimulus measures are in effect.
We expect iron ore prices to remain rangebound between 95-120 USD/ton over the next few months as cost support is strong at the 100 USD/ton level. 


Iron Ore Tracker (24-Mar-2025): Iron Ore At Support Levels of 100 USD/Ton

<ul>
<li>Iron ore majors guide flattish growth for 2025, while China continues to have strong iron ore imports (4.2% YoY for CY24), despite weak steel production (-1.1% YoY). </li>
<li>Significant capacity growth commences in CY26 with the ramp-up of <a target="_blank">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)'s </a>Simandou project, equivalent to 6% of global seaborne trade ~100 million tons.  </li>
<li>We believe the iron ore price will be rangebound until 2026 (between 100-120 USD/ton), after which it is highly probable that it will decline to 80-90 USD/ton.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore majors guide flattish growth for 2025, while China continues to have strong iron ore imports (4.2% YoY for CY24), despite weak steel production (-1.1% YoY). 
Significant capacity growth commences in CY26 with the ramp-up of Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)'s Simandou project, equivalent to 6% of global seaborne trade ~100 million tons.  
We believe the iron ore price will be rangebound until 2026 (between 100-120 USD/ton), after which it is highly probable that it will decline to 80-90 USD/ton.


Iron Ore Majors Guidance: Key To Understanding Supply Side in 2025

Australia

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

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Iron Ore (IRON ORE COMDTY)

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/14]: IO Volatility Set to Rise Amid Trade Tensions

IO slid amid renewed U.S.–China trade tensions, technical indicators flash deeper downside risk. This paper outlines a directionally neutral...

Mint Finance

Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Highlights From The Ignite Investment Summit

We summarize Fenix Resources (FEX AU) presentation at the 2025 Ignite Investment Summit in Hong Kong. With production imminently tripling, FEX can...

Sameer Taneja

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/13]: Bullish Momentum Builds as IV Eases

Iron ore gained on seasonal demand and easing macro concerns, with technical indicators flashing bullish. Falling IV and rising institutional long...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Tracker (24-Mar-2025): Iron Ore At Support Levels of 100 USD/Ton

We summarize all the KPIs likely to affect the iron ore market in the medium term. Chinese consumption is quietly picking up, although property...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Majors Guidance: Key To Understanding Supply Side in 2025

Our insight summarizes the guidance from iron ore majors and the anticipated impact on prices starting in the calendar year 2026 when Rio Tinto's...

Sameer Taneja

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/​14]: IO Volatility Set to Rise Amid Trade Tensions

IO slid amid renewed U.S.–China trade tensions, technical indicators flash deeper downside risk. This paper outlines a directionally neutral...

Mint Finance

Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Highlights From The Ignite Investment Summit

We summarize Fenix Resources (FEX AU) presentation at the 2025 Ignite Investment Summit in Hong Kong. With production imminently tripling, FEX can...

Sameer Taneja

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/13]: Bullish Momentum Builds as IV Eases

Iron ore gained on seasonal demand and easing macro concerns, with technical indicators flashing bullish. Falling IV and rising institutional long...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Tracker (24-Mar-2025): Iron Ore At Support Levels of 100 USD/Ton

We summarize all the KPIs likely to affect the iron ore market in the medium term. Chinese consumption is quietly picking up, although property...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Majors Guidance: Key To Understanding Supply Side in 2025

Our insight summarizes the guidance from iron ore majors and the anticipated impact on prices starting in the calendar year 2026 when Rio Tinto's...

Sameer Taneja

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/14]: IO Volatility Set to Rise Amid Trade Tensions