Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>SGX IO Futures rose $2.25/ton over the week, closing at $102.25/ton, buoyed by seasonal steel demand and technical support above 9D and 21D DMAs.</li>
<li>Implied volatility in iron ore options fell sharply YoY (ATM IV -36%, 10-delta puts -41%), making long volatility positions more affordable.</li>
<li>Futures and options open interest rose 6.85% WoW, with Financial Institutions increasing net long positions, reinforcing bullish positioning.</li>
</ul>


SGX IO Futures rose $2.25/ton over the week, closing at $102.25/ton, buoyed by seasonal steel demand and technical support above 9D and 21D DMAs.
Implied volatility in iron ore options fell sharply YoY (ATM IV -36%, 10-delta puts -41%), making long volatility positions more affordable.
Futures and options open interest rose 6.85% WoW, with Financial Institutions increasing net long positions, reinforcing bullish positioning.


[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/13]: Bullish Momentum Builds as IV Eases

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>Mixed data from China shows property prices down 5-7% YoY and lower land sales YTD, while weaker U.S. consumer sentiment has also negatively impacted overall commodity prices.</li>
<li>China's total social financing (TSF) for Jan-Feb reached 9.29 trillion RMB (Vs. consensus 9.75 trillion RMB). However, this figure is +16.6% YoY, signaling that substantial stimulus measures are in effect.</li>
<li>We expect iron ore prices to remain rangebound between 95-120 USD/ton over the next few months as cost support is strong at the 100 USD/ton level. </li>
</ul>


Mixed data from China shows property prices down 5-7% YoY and lower land sales YTD, while weaker U.S. consumer sentiment has also negatively impacted overall commodity prices.
China's total social financing (TSF) for Jan-Feb reached 9.29 trillion RMB (Vs. consensus 9.75 trillion RMB). However, this figure is +16.6% YoY, signaling that substantial stimulus measures are in effect.
We expect iron ore prices to remain rangebound between 95-120 USD/ton over the next few months as cost support is strong at the 100 USD/ton level. 


Iron Ore Tracker (24-Mar-2025): Iron Ore At Support Levels of 100 USD/Ton

<ul>
<li>Iron ore majors guide flattish growth for 2025, while China continues to have strong iron ore imports (4.2% YoY for CY24), despite weak steel production (-1.1% YoY). </li>
<li>Significant capacity growth commences in CY26 with the ramp-up of <a target="_blank">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)'s </a>Simandou project, equivalent to 6% of global seaborne trade ~100 million tons.  </li>
<li>We believe the iron ore price will be rangebound until 2026 (between 100-120 USD/ton), after which it is highly probable that it will decline to 80-90 USD/ton.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore majors guide flattish growth for 2025, while China continues to have strong iron ore imports (4.2% YoY for CY24), despite weak steel production (-1.1% YoY). 
Significant capacity growth commences in CY26 with the ramp-up of Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)'s Simandou project, equivalent to 6% of global seaborne trade ~100 million tons.  
We believe the iron ore price will be rangebound until 2026 (between 100-120 USD/ton), after which it is highly probable that it will decline to 80-90 USD/ton.


Iron Ore Majors Guidance: Key To Understanding Supply Side in 2025

<ul>
<li>Iron ore futures declined by USD 1.75/ton last week, closing at USD 100.45/ton on March 7, trading within a narrower USD 3.90/ton range.</li>
<li>Technical indicators confirm bearish momentum, with a death cross, MACD signaling weakness, and RSI nearing oversold conditions at 36.61.</li>
<li>Market sentiment remains fragile due to China’s steel production cuts, declining imports, and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, despite potential stimulus measures.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore futures declined by USD 1.75/ton last week, closing at USD 100.45/ton on March 7, trading within a narrower USD 3.90/ton range.
Technical indicators confirm bearish momentum, with a death cross, MACD signaling weakness, and RSI nearing oversold conditions at 36.61.
Market sentiment remains fragile due to China’s steel production cuts, declining imports, and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, despite potential stimulus measures.


[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/10]: Bearish Signals Deepen in IO Amid China’s Steel Production Cuts

<ul>
<li>Iron ore futures fell 6% last week, closing at USD 102.00/ton on Feb 28, below key support levels, with bearish momentum confirmed by technical indicators.</li>
<li>Global trade tariffs pressured sentiment, as U.S., Vietnam, and South Korea imposed levies on Chinese steel, impacting an estimated USD 7 billion market and dampening demand.</li>
<li>China’s Two Sessions could drive volatility, with historical patterns showing pre-meeting gains followed by post-policy declines, potentially influencing iron ore price recovery.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore futures fell 6% last week, closing at USD 102.00/ton on Feb 28, below key support levels, with bearish momentum confirmed by technical indicators.
Global trade tariffs pressured sentiment, as U.S., Vietnam, and South Korea imposed levies on Chinese steel, impacting an estimated USD 7 billion market and dampening demand.
China’s Two Sessions could drive volatility, with historical patterns showing pre-meeting gains followed by post-policy declines, potentially influencing iron ore price recovery.


[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/09] Iron Ore Prices Decline Amid Trade Tariffs and Weakening Demand

Australia

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

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Iron Ore (IRON ORE COMDTY)

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/13]: Bullish Momentum Builds as IV Eases

Iron ore gained on seasonal demand and easing macro concerns, with technical indicators flashing bullish. Falling IV and rising institutional long...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Tracker (24-Mar-2025): Iron Ore At Support Levels of 100 USD/Ton

We summarize all the KPIs likely to affect the iron ore market in the medium term. Chinese consumption is quietly picking up, although property...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Majors Guidance: Key To Understanding Supply Side in 2025

Our insight summarizes the guidance from iron ore majors and the anticipated impact on prices starting in the calendar year 2026 when Rio Tinto's...

Sameer Taneja

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/10]: Bearish Signals Deepen in IO Amid China’s Steel Production Cuts

Iron Ore Futures fell last week amid China’s steel cuts and trade tensions. Bearish technical signals and weak demand suggest further downside,...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/09] Iron Ore Prices Decline Amid Trade Tariffs and Weakening Demand

Iron ore futures fell 6% amid trade tariffs and weak demand. While bearish signals persist, China’s Two Sessions could drive volatility,...

Mint Finance

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