Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>SGX IO Futures gained $2.69/ton this week, closing at $100.24/ton on April 23, breaking above the R1 level of $99.00/ton.</li>
<li>Managed Money flipped to net short while Physicals turned net long, signaling a major positioning shift</li>
<li>MACD divergence and RSI at 51.09 reflect building bullish momentum despite prices trading below long-term moving averages.</li>
</ul>


SGX IO Futures gained $2.69/ton this week, closing at $100.24/ton on April 23, breaking above the R1 level of $99.00/ton.
Managed Money flipped to net short while Physicals turned net long, signaling a major positioning shift
MACD divergence and RSI at 51.09 reflect building bullish momentum despite prices trading below long-term moving averages.


[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/17] Bullish Momentum Builds

<ul>
<li>China's economy grew 5.4% in Q1 2025, matching Q4 2024 and beating forecasts, as manufacturers boosted exports ahead of Trump’s tariffs. </li>
<li>China's March retail sales (+5.9% YoY) and factory output (+7.7% YoY) beat forecasts, accelerating from Jan-Feb growth as economic recovery gains momentum. </li>
<li>Iron ore inventories fell further in April, with both SMM and CISA reporting weekly drops. Weather-disrupted port operations tightened supply, supporting prices, though US-China trade tensions add demand uncertainty. </li>
</ul>


China's economy grew 5.4% in Q1 2025, matching Q4 2024 and beating forecasts, as manufacturers boosted exports ahead of Trump’s tariffs. 
China's March retail sales (+5.9% YoY) and factory output (+7.7% YoY) beat forecasts, accelerating from Jan-Feb growth as economic recovery gains momentum. 
Iron ore inventories fell further in April, with both SMM and CISA reporting weekly drops. Weather-disrupted port operations tightened supply, supporting prices, though US-China trade tensions add demand uncertainty. 


[IO Fundamentals 16/2025] Robust China Data and Shrinking IO Inventories

Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

<ul>
<li>Managed Money switched to net short, Physicals switched to net long while FIs increased net long positions last week.</li>
<li>Prices touched a high of $99.25/ton on 17/Apr and a low of $96.55/ton on 14/Apr. It traded in a range of $2.70/ton during the week.</li>
<li>Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures May contract trades 23.8% below its last 5-year average ($128.37/ton).</li>
</ul>


Managed Money switched to net short, Physicals switched to net long while FIs increased net long positions last week.
Prices touched a high of $99.25/ton on 17/Apr and a low of $96.55/ton on 14/Apr. It traded in a range of $2.70/ton during the week.
Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures May contract trades 23.8% below its last 5-year average ($128.37/ton).


[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/​14]: Price Bearishness to Persist

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> reported an increase in deliveries from Q3 FY25 to 704k tons from 346k tons/587k tons in Q1/Q2 FY25, transitioning from a 1.3 mtpa-2.8 mtpa runrate. </li>
<li>The company remains on track to commence production from the Beebyn W-11 mine by the September quarter of 2025, taking the annualized production rate to&gt;4.0 mtpa. </li>
<li>At ~4 mtpa, we expect the mines to generate 200 mn AUD of operating cash flow (at 100 USD/ton iron ore price), equivalent to FEX's market cap. </li>
</ul>



Fenix Resources (FEX AU) reported an increase in deliveries from Q3 FY25 to 704k tons from 346k tons/587k tons in Q1/Q2 FY25, transitioning from a 1.3 mtpa-2.8 mtpa runrate. 
The company remains on track to commence production from the Beebyn W-11 mine by the September quarter of 2025, taking the annualized production rate to&gt;4.0 mtpa. 
At ~4 mtpa, we expect the mines to generate 200 mn AUD of operating cash flow (at 100 USD/ton iron ore price), equivalent to FEX's market cap. 


Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Q3 FY25 Concall Update + CZR News

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices dropped by 5.5% last week, as the tariff war spooked the market and global recession fears gripped the market.  </li>
<li>With the temporary relaxation of the tariffs and a meeting of key Chinese leaders to front-load the stimulus, the market seems slightly less pessimistic about iron ore prices. </li>
<li>With iron ore prices falling below USD 100 per ton, the higher end of the cost curve, we anticipate a slight rebound toward the USD 105-110 per ton range.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices dropped by 5.5% last week, as the tariff war spooked the market and global recession fears gripped the market.  
With the temporary relaxation of the tariffs and a meeting of key Chinese leaders to front-load the stimulus, the market seems slightly less pessimistic about iron ore prices. 
With iron ore prices falling below USD 100 per ton, the higher end of the cost curve, we anticipate a slight rebound toward the USD 105-110 per ton range.


Iron Ore Tracker (14-Apr-2025): Iron Within The Band, Set To Bounce On China Stimulus Talks

Australia

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

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Iron Ore (IRON ORE COMDTY)

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/17] Bullish Momentum Builds

IO rose this week, driven by improved U.S.-China trade sentiment, strong Chinese steel production, and shifting investor positioning. Technicals...

Mint Finance

[IO Fundamentals 16/2025] Robust China Data and Shrinking IO Inventories

China's economy beats forecasts in Q1 2025 with strong growth in exports, retail sales, and factory output, despite US-China trade tensions. IO...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/14]: Price Bearishness to Persist

Managed Money went net short even as Physicals went net long. Prices fluctuated between 96.55-99.25. SGX IO Futures May contract is trading 23.8%...

Mint Finance

Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Q3 FY25 Concall Update + CZR News

We summarize the concall highlights for Q3FY25 Fenix Resources (FEX AU) operations. With the company not exercising its right to match its CZR AU...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Tracker (14-Apr-2025): Iron Within The Band, Set To Bounce On China Stimulus Talks

With the temporary relaxation of the tariffs and a meeting of key Chinese leaders to front-load the stimulus, we expect a 10% bounce in iron ore...

Sameer Taneja

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/17] Bullish Momentum Builds

IO rose this week, driven by improved U.S.-China trade sentiment, strong Chinese steel production, and shifting investor positioning. Technicals...

Mint Finance

[IO Fundamentals 16/2025] Robust China Data and Shrinking IO Inventories

​China's economy beats forecasts in Q1 2025 with strong growth in exports, retail sales, and factory output, despite US-China trade tensions. IO...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/​14]: Price Bearishness to Persist

​Managed Money went net short even as Physicals went net long. Prices fluctuated between 96.55-99.25. SGX IO Futures May contract is trading 23.8%...

Mint Finance

Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Q3 FY25 Concall Update + CZR News

We summarize the concall highlights for Q3FY25 Fenix Resources (FEX AU) operations. With the company not exercising its right to match its CZR AU...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Tracker (14-Apr-2025): Iron Within The Band, Set To Bounce On China Stimulus Talks

With the temporary relaxation of the tariffs and a meeting of key Chinese leaders to front-load the stimulus, we expect a 10% bounce in iron ore...

Sameer Taneja

China's economy beats forecasts in Q1 2025 with strong growth in exports, retail sales, and factory output, despite US-China trade tensions. IO...

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/14]: Price Bearishness to Persist

Managed Money went net short even as Physicals went net long. Prices fluctuated between 96.55-99.25. SGX IO Futures May contract is trading 23.8%...