Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Financial markets are discounting more aggressive Fed easing in 2024 than is currently being embraced by forward guidance, suggesting recession fears have not been totally extinguished.</li>
<li>Courtesy of the Great Moderation, monetary policy gradualism remains intact, while markets are discounting a 50 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate after the presidential election.</li>
<li>The outcome of the presidential election could impact Fed policy in 2025, as both contenders are embracing economic policies that will structurally boost inflation in varying degrees.</li>
</ul>


Financial markets are discounting more aggressive Fed easing in 2024 than is currently being embraced by forward guidance, suggesting recession fears have not been totally extinguished.
Courtesy of the Great Moderation, monetary policy gradualism remains intact, while markets are discounting a 50 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate after the presidential election.
The outcome of the presidential election could impact Fed policy in 2025, as both contenders are embracing economic policies that will structurally boost inflation in varying degrees.


US Financial Markets: Getting Too Optimistic About Easier Fed Policy?

Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Founder & Head of Research

Fortress Hill Advisors

Founded in Hong Kong in 2019, Fortress Hill Advisor seeks to provide premium economic and financial researches.

Premium Economic & Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Fed Powell clearly signaled a Sep 18 FOMC rate cut, but his analysis on the economy is softer than harder landing.</li>
<li>Though the option of 50bps was not ruled out, the comments from Powell and other Fed officials are more consistent with 25bps than 50bps. </li>
<li>Nevertheless, the Fed is now more focused on the labor market, which suggests we think will be improving even with mere 25bps cut this year.</li>
</ul>


Fed Powell clearly signaled a Sep 18 FOMC rate cut, but his analysis on the economy is softer than harder landing.
Though the option of 50bps was not ruled out, the comments from Powell and other Fed officials are more consistent with 25bps than 50bps. 
Nevertheless, the Fed is now more focused on the labor market, which suggests we think will be improving even with mere 25bps cut this year.


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Medtronic, PLC develops therapeutic and diagnostic medical products. The Company's principal products include those for bradycardia pacing, tachyarrhythmia management, atrial fibrillation management, heart failure management, heart valve replacement, malignant and non-malignant pain, and movement disorders. Medtronic's products are sold worldwide.

<ul><li>Medtronic PLC reported its fiscal 2025 first-quarter results, reflecting a sustained performance trajectory with key financial metrics meeting or exceeding expectations.</li><li>Highlights from the earnings call emphasize continued growth across several of Medtronic's business segments, along with strategic advancements in product innovations and global market expansions.</li><li>Revenue growth was reported at 5.3%, surpassing the midpoint of guidance, with significant contributions from the Cardiovascular, Neuroscience, and Diabetes segments.</li></ul>

Medtronic PLC reported its fiscal 2025 first-quarter results, reflecting a sustained performance trajectory with key financial metrics meeting or exceeding expectations.Highlights from the earnings call emphasize continued growth across several of Medtronic's business segments, along with strategic advancements in product innovations and global market expansions.Revenue growth was reported at 5.3%, surpassing the midpoint of guidance, with significant contributions from the Cardiovascular, Neuroscience, and Diabetes segments.

Medtronic plc: Are Its Investments in Robotics with Hugo Robotic-Assisted Surgery System Yielding Results? - Major Drivers

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

<ul><li>Applied Materials has recorded robust financial results for its third quarter of fiscal year 2024, maintaining momentum with record revenues and solid earnings near the upper end of the guidance range.</li><li>The company is aptly positioned amid extensive secular growth trends reshaping technology, primarily due to increasing demands across key sectors like AI, IoT, and clean energy, which require foundational advancements in semiconductor technology.</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

Applied Materials has recorded robust financial results for its third quarter of fiscal year 2024, maintaining momentum with record revenues and solid earnings near the upper end of the guidance range.The company is aptly positioned amid extensive secular growth trends reshaping technology, primarily due to increasing demands across key sectors like AI, IoT, and clean energy, which require foundational advancements in semiconductor technology.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT): Benefitting From The Market Demand in ICAPS and Semiconductors! - Major Drivers

Coherent, Inc. is a global company that manufactures and sells a variety of laser-based photonic products.  The Company's products are used in manufacturing and instrumentation applications that include optical telecommunication, semiconductor manufacturing, inspection and test, advance packaging, and reprographics.  The electro-optical market consists of Fortune 500 customers.

<ul><li>Coherent Corp. concluded its fiscal year 2024 with financial results reflecting a positive trajectory, showing a 9% sequential and year-over-year revenue growth primarily driven by robust demand in datacom transceivers for AI data-centric deployments.</li><li>This was further accentuated by Non-GAAP gross margin expansion of 145 basis points compared to the previous quarter, underpinned by resolution of prior transitory issues and a substantial growth in Non-GAAP EPS by 16% sequentially and almost 50% year-over-year.</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

Coherent Corp. concluded its fiscal year 2024 with financial results reflecting a positive trajectory, showing a 9% sequential and year-over-year revenue growth primarily driven by robust demand in datacom transceivers for AI data-centric deployments.This was further accentuated by Non-GAAP gross margin expansion of 145 basis points compared to the previous quarter, underpinned by resolution of prior transitory issues and a substantial growth in Non-GAAP EPS by 16% sequentially and almost 50% year-over-year.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Coherent Corp.: How Is The Management Executing Portfolio Optimization and Operational Execution Improvements! - Major Drivers