Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Teco Electric & Machinery Co., Ltd. manufactures household appliances, industrial motors, and smart cards.  The Company produces air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, dryers, single-phase motors, three-phase motors, inverters, rotary compressors, stepping motors, gear motors, and generators.

<ul>
<li>There are now new changes forecast for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December for a total of 8 inclusions and 7 deletions.</li>
<li>Constituent changes along with capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 21.8% and in a one-way trade of TWD 75.8bn (US$2.33bn).</li>
<li>The potential changes had a big one-day move yesterday and we expect similar moves over the next couple of days.</li>
</ul>


There are now new changes forecast for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December for a total of 8 inclusions and 7 deletions.
Constituent changes along with capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 21.8% and in a one-way trade of TWD 75.8bn (US$2.33bn).
The potential changes had a big one-day move yesterday and we expect similar moves over the next couple of days.


Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Last-Second Changes to the Last-Minute Changes

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

Acer Inc. manufactures and distributes semiconductor products, personal computers, computer peripherals, multimedia products, and computer software. The Company also provides maintenance and repair services to customers.  In addition, Acer Inc. operates real estate business. The Company markets its products under the Acer brand name.

<ul><li>India's PC market shows growth in 3Q24, indicating signs of recovery in the industry after a challenging period.</li><li>Taiwan's aerospace industry experiences a surge in ambitions amidst global security worries, highlighting the region's competitive edge.</li><li>Samsung makes changes in leadership with new foundry CTO appointment, signaling a strategic shift in the company's direction.</li></ul>

India's PC market shows growth in 3Q24, indicating signs of recovery in the industry after a challenging period.Taiwan's aerospace industry experiences a surge in ambitions amidst global security worries, highlighting the region's competitive edge.Samsung makes changes in leadership with new foundry CTO appointment, signaling a strategic shift in the company's direction.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (28-Nov-2024): India PC market recovering, slight shipment growth in 3Q24.

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The election of Donald Trump with overwhelming majority changes the investment logic of our sectors and perhaps others. But besides acknowledging, what is actionable is the broad impact expected globally; </li>
<li>Thus the questions of whether Trump's policies will be successful, become important: how flexible they are, what are the signposts and who stand to benefit and be hurt;</li>
<li>Our standing assumption is that both MAGA and non-MAGA will claim victory.  We are assuming quality executions from the Trump team but the odds of achieving is still daunting.</li>
</ul>


The election of Donald Trump with overwhelming majority changes the investment logic of our sectors and perhaps others. But besides acknowledging, what is actionable is the broad impact expected globally; 
Thus the questions of whether Trump's policies will be successful, become important: how flexible they are, what are the signposts and who stand to benefit and be hurt;
Our standing assumption is that both MAGA and non-MAGA will claim victory.  We are assuming quality executions from the Trump team but the odds of achieving is still daunting.


Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

<ul><li>Former TSMC chairman Mark Liu believes Taiwan's chip industry is unaffected by Trump's trade policy, showing confidence in the sector.</li><li>DIGITIMES Research predicts a 3.6% CAGR growth in global smartphone shipments from 2024-2029, indicating steady expansion.</li><li>Despite potential US bans and chip supply halts, Huawei remains dedicated to developing advanced technology, including AI chips.</li></ul>

Former TSMC chairman Mark Liu believes Taiwan's chip industry is unaffected by Trump's trade policy, showing confidence in the sector.DIGITIMES Research predicts a 3.6% CAGR growth in global smartphone shipments from 2024-2029, indicating steady expansion.Despite potential US bans and chip supply halts, Huawei remains dedicated to developing advanced technology, including AI chips.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (27-Nov-2024): Taiwan chip industry unphased by Trump's trade policy - Mark Liu.

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Asia is cheap relative to the US - trading at less than 40% of US's P/BV - but that's because Asia's ROE has consistently declined relative to US's.</li>
<li>Over the next couple of years Asian ROEs are forecast to revive relative to the US's but all Asian markets are not forecast to participate in this recovery.</li>
<li>The "ROE Winners" (rising forecast ROEs) are Korea, Taiwan, India, Malaysia. Indonesia to stay flat but solidly higher than Asian average. We are skeptical of HK/China and Thailand's ROE recovery.</li>
</ul>


Asia is cheap relative to the US - trading at less than 40% of US's P/BV - but that's because Asia's ROE has consistently declined relative to US's.
Over the next couple of years Asian ROEs are forecast to revive relative to the US's but all Asian markets are not forecast to participate in this recovery.
The "ROE Winners" (rising forecast ROEs) are Korea, Taiwan, India, Malaysia. Indonesia to stay flat but solidly higher than Asian average. We are skeptical of HK/China and Thailand's ROE recovery.


Asian Equities: Be Selective - Focus on The "ROE Winners"

Taiwan
Insights on Taiwan

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Last-Second Changes to the Last-Minute Changes

There could now be 8 adds and 7 deletes for the ETF in December leading to one-way turnover of 21.8% and in a one-way trade of TWD 75.8bn...

Brian Freitas

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (28-Nov-2024): India PC market recovering, slight shipment growth in 3Q24.

India sees slight growth in PC shipments, Taiwan's aerospace sector thrives, Samsung appoints new CTO, Taiwan and Germany collaborate on AI license...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Smart Trump, or Dumb Trump?

Election of Trump shifts investment logic but we differ on how. First realization is it is a zero sum game and assessing MAGA's chance of success...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (27-Nov-2024): Taiwan chip industry unphased by Trump's trade policy - Mark Liu.

Taiwan's chip industry remains steady amid US trade tensions, with global smartphone shipments and Chinese AI chip development continuing to grow...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Asian Equities: Be Selective - Focus on The "ROE Winners"

Asia's cheap P/BV compared to the US is due to low ROE. Over the next couple of years Asian ROE is forecast to revive relative to US, driven by...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Last-Second Changes to the Last-Minute Changes

There could now be 8 adds and 7 deletes for the ETF in December leading to one-way turnover of 21.8% and in a one-way trade of TWD 75.8bn...

Brian Freitas

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (28-Nov-2024): India PC market recovering, slight shipment growth in 3Q24.

India sees slight growth in PC shipments, Taiwan's aerospace sector thrives, Samsung appoints new CTO, Taiwan and Germany collaborate on AI license...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Smart Trump, or Dumb Trump?

​Election of Trump shifts investment logic but we differ on how. First realization is it is a zero sum game and assessing MAGA's chance of success...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (27-Nov-2024): Taiwan chip industry unphased by Trump's trade policy - Mark Liu.

Taiwan's chip industry remains steady amid US trade tensions, with global smartphone shipments and Chinese AI chip development continuing to grow...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Asian Equities: Be Selective - Focus on The "ROE Winners"

​Asia's cheap P/BV compared to the US is due to low ROE. Over the next couple of years Asian ROE is forecast to revive relative to US, driven by...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Election of Trump shifts investment logic but we differ on how. First realization is it is a zero sum game and assessing MAGA's chance of success...

Asia's cheap P/BV compared to the US is due to low ROE. Over the next couple of years Asian ROE is forecast to revive relative to US, driven by...