Equities. Commodities. Metals & Mining

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

Ultra Tech Cement Ltd. produces a wide range of cement products. This Company represents the cement operations of Larsen & Toubro which were spun-off into a separate entity in which Grasim Industries holds a majority interest.

<ul>
<li>FY25 EBITDA growth was primarily volume-driven, with EBITDA/ton declining to Rs988 due to flat realizations and initial dilution from acquisitions.</li>
<li> UltraTech is investing Rs1,800 crore to enter the cables and wires segment, targeting December 2026 commissioning and leveraging its existing retail and B2B networks.</li>
<li>At Rs12,000 per share, the stock trades at 51–53x FY26E EPS, supported by expectations of sustained volume growth and operational efficiency gains.</li>
</ul>


FY25 EBITDA growth was primarily volume-driven, with EBITDA/ton declining to Rs988 due to flat realizations and initial dilution from acquisitions.
 UltraTech is investing Rs1,800 crore to enter the cables and wires segment, targeting December 2026 commissioning and leveraging its existing retail and B2B networks.
At Rs12,000 per share, the stock trades at 51–53x FY26E EPS, supported by expectations of sustained volume growth and operational efficiency gains.


Strong Volumes Offset by Declining Margins and Capital Efficiency at UltraTech

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. operates as a shipbuilding and offshore company. The Company provides floating structure construction, steel wire drying, commercial vessels, specialty vessels, gas carrier, tanker, containership, ro ro, bulk carrier, submarine, warship, auxiliaries, cruise ships, and ferries manufacturing services. Hanwha Ocean also offers onshore plants services.

<ul>
<li>Korea Development Bank (KDB) is capitalizing on the huge share price appreciation of Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) to sell some of its stake in the company through block deal sales.</li>
<li>KDB plans to sell its 19.5% stake in Hanwha Ocean. However, the initial block deal sale will be for about 13 million shares (4.3% of outstanding shares). </li>
<li><em><strong>Hanwha Ocean's lofty valuations are difficult to justify. As KDB is getting ready to sell more shares,  this could cause further overhang on its shares over the next 3-6 months.  </strong></em></li>
</ul>


Korea Development Bank (KDB) is capitalizing on the huge share price appreciation of Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) to sell some of its stake in the company through block deal sales.
KDB plans to sell its 19.5% stake in Hanwha Ocean. However, the initial block deal sale will be for about 13 million shares (4.3% of outstanding shares). 
Hanwha Ocean's lofty valuations are difficult to justify. As KDB is getting ready to sell more shares,  this could cause further overhang on its shares over the next 3-6 months.  


Overhang on KDB's Sell Down of Its 19.5% Stake in Hanwha Ocean

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

AEON CO., LTD. operates general merchandise stores, supermarkets, and convenience stores throughout Japan. The Company is also engaged in women's and casual clothing store business, development business of commercial property, and financing service through the subsidiaries.

<ul>
<li>We identified overvalued, over-leveraged, low growth stocks on EPS growth, high PEG, low ROE, high P/BV, high leverage.  Clients opined that EBITDA is more stable earnings parameter for such stocks.</li>
<li>Based on clients’ feedback we now screen the stocks using EBITDA growth as the earnings growth parameter and EV as the corresponding valuation parameter.</li>
<li>Our screen yields 30 stocks - 20 from Japan (largely property/REIT) and 10 from HK/China. 7 stocks are common to the EPS-PE and EBITDA-EV lists - mostly from Japanese property.</li>
</ul>


We identified overvalued, over-leveraged, low growth stocks on EPS growth, high PEG, low ROE, high P/BV, high leverage.  Clients opined that EBITDA is more stable earnings parameter for such stocks.
Based on clients’ feedback we now screen the stocks using EBITDA growth as the earnings growth parameter and EV as the corresponding valuation parameter.
Our screen yields 30 stocks - 20 from Japan (largely property/REIT) and 10 from HK/China. 7 stocks are common to the EPS-PE and EBITDA-EV lists - mostly from Japanese property.


Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

BP P.L.C is an energy company. The Company explores and produces oil and natural gas, refines, markets, and supplies petroleum products, as well as generates solar energy, and manufactures and markets chemicals such as terephthalic acid, acetic acid, acrylonitrile, ethylene, and polyethylene. BP serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>BP set to report its Q1 2025 earnings on 29/Apr, with revenue and EPS projected to fall by 7.4% YoY and 43.3%, respectively.</li>
<li>As of 29/Apr, BP’s implied volatility (IV) stands at 34.62%, with an IV rank of 41.83% and an IV percentile of 91%.</li>
<li>BP's OI by strike for the 02/May expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 30, 31, and 34, while puts dominate at 26.5, 27, and 28.</li>
</ul>


BP set to report its Q1 2025 earnings on 29/Apr, with revenue and EPS projected to fall by 7.4% YoY and 43.3%, respectively.
As of 29/Apr, BP’s implied volatility (IV) stands at 34.62%, with an IV rank of 41.83% and an IV percentile of 91%.
BP's OI by strike for the 02/May expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 30, 31, and 34, while puts dominate at 26.5, 27, and 28.


[Pre-Earnings Options Flash] BP’s OI PCR Signals Neutrality Despite Bleak Q4 Outlook

<ul>
<li>BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are projected to decline by 7.4% YoY and 43.3%, respectively, due to lower hydrocarbon output, weaker gas marketing, and subdued trading results.</li>
<li>BP expects oil production earnings to remain flat sequentially, with refining margins adding USD 100-300 million to Q1 earnings, while oil trading performance is anticipated to remain unchanged.</li>
<li>The company expects net debt to increase by USD 4 billion from the previous quarter’s USD 23 billion, citing seasonal inventory builds and timing of payments.</li>
</ul>


BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are projected to decline by 7.4% YoY and 43.3%, respectively, due to lower hydrocarbon output, weaker gas marketing, and subdued trading results.
BP expects oil production earnings to remain flat sequentially, with refining margins adding USD 100-300 million to Q1 earnings, while oil trading performance is anticipated to remain unchanged.
The company expects net debt to increase by USD 4 billion from the previous quarter’s USD 23 billion, citing seasonal inventory builds and timing of payments.


[Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results

Sell / Short Ideas
Outperform on the downside

Strong Volumes Offset by Declining Margins and Capital Efficiency at UltraTech

UltraTech's FY25 EBITDA growth driven by volume, plans Rs1,800 crore investment in cables and wires segment for December 2026 launch, stock...

Rahul Jain

Overhang on KDB's Sell Down of Its 19.5% Stake in Hanwha Ocean

Hanwha Ocean's lofty valuations are difficult to justify. As KDB is getting ready to sell more shares, this could cause further overhang on its...

Douglas Kim

Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

We modify our "stocks to avoid" list using EBITDA as the earnings parameter & EV as the valuation parameter. We screen 30 stocks, mostly from...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

[Pre-Earnings Options Flash] BP’s OI PCR Signals Neutrality Despite Bleak Q4 Outlook

BP is set to report Q1 earnings with projected revenue and EPS declines, while options data shows calls concentrated at higher strikes and puts at...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results

BP's Q4 revenue and EPS to decline due to lower output and weaker trading results, with flat oil production earnings and increased net debt...

Mint Finance

Strong Volumes Offset by Declining Margins and Capital Efficiency at UltraTech

​UltraTech's FY25 EBITDA growth driven by volume, plans Rs1,800 crore investment in cables and wires segment for December 2026 launch, stock...

Rahul Jain

Overhang on KDB's Sell Down of Its 19.5% Stake in Hanwha Ocean

Hanwha Ocean's lofty valuations are difficult to justify. As KDB is getting ready to sell more shares, this could cause further overhang on its...

Douglas Kim

Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

​We modify our "stocks to avoid" list using EBITDA as the earnings parameter & EV as the valuation parameter. We screen 30 stocks, mostly from...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

[Pre-Earnings Options Flash] BP’s OI PCR Signals Neutrality Despite Bleak Q4 Outlook

​BP is set to report Q1 earnings with projected revenue and EPS declines, while options data shows calls concentrated at higher strikes and puts at...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results

​BP's Q4 revenue and EPS to decline due to lower output and weaker trading results, with flat oil production earnings and increased net debt...

Mint Finance

UltraTech's FY25 EBITDA growth driven by volume, plans Rs1,800 crore investment in cables and wires segment for December 2026 launch, stock...

We modify our "stocks to avoid" list using EBITDA as the earnings parameter & EV as the valuation parameter. We screen 30 stocks, mostly from...

BP is set to report Q1 earnings with projected revenue and EPS declines, while options data shows calls concentrated at higher strikes and puts at...

BP's Q4 revenue and EPS to decline due to lower output and weaker trading results, with flat oil production earnings and increased net debt...