Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

<ul>
<li>NVIDIA this week reported Q3FY25 revenues of $35.082 billion, up 17% QoQ, up 94% YoY and a full $2.5 billion above the guided midpoint.</li>
<li>Looking ahead, NVIDIA is forecasting revenues of $37.5 billion, up ~7% sequentially. Gross margins to decline slightly to 73%.</li>
<li>Contrary to Jensen Huang's vision, the existing $1 trillion worth of data centers do not need to be "modernized" into AI factories. This is pure fantasy. </li>
</ul>


NVIDIA this week reported Q3FY25 revenues of $35.082 billion, up 17% QoQ, up 94% YoY and a full $2.5 billion above the guided midpoint.
Looking ahead, NVIDIA is forecasting revenues of $37.5 billion, up ~7% sequentially. Gross margins to decline slightly to 73%.
Contrary to Jensen Huang's vision, the existing $1 trillion worth of data centers do not need to be "modernized" into AI factories. This is pure fantasy. 


NVIDIA Q3FY25 Growth Story Still On Track But Heed The Flaws In Jensen's GenAI Vision

Investment Strategist, Transparently.AI

Mark Jolley

Investment Strategist

AI detection of accounting fraud and manipulation

Transparently.AI

Fraud and manipulation of their numbers see companies lose USD1 trillion+ per year for their stakeholders. Transparently.AI has developed an AI system that determines:

1. The likelihood that a company is committing fraud/serious manipulation of their books;
2. Whether it is serious enough to result in total corporate failure;
3. Estimated $ losses to stakeholders;
4. How that manipulation/fraud evolves through time; and
5. Detailed analytics on the forms of manipulation/fraud (e.g. which parts of the accounts, what tricks of the trade, questions for analysts to ask management, where/how to investigate further, etc.).

This is effectively automating the analysis of forensic accountants, activist short sellers, credit analysts, etc to do work that would typically take weeks per company, and instead run it in seconds and for thousands of companies simultaneously.

Critically, this solution frequently alerts users to the presence of serious manipulation risk up to 2-3 years in advance of the wider market and short sellers becoming aware of problems.

Forensic Accounting

Roblox Corporation provides entertainment products and services. The Company designs and develops a wide range of online games such as internet three-dimensional and tutorial games for kids, teens, and adults. Roblox serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>The evolution of the metaverse gives rise to new business models that present new challenges for corporate reporting and accounting.</li>
<li>Transparently' s AI system has picked up some concerning signals about Roblox’s accounting quality.</li>
<li>However, some of these can be explained by the uniqueness of its metaverse-driven revenue model. </li>
</ul>


The evolution of the metaverse gives rise to new business models that present new challenges for corporate reporting and accounting.
Transparently' s AI system has picked up some concerning signals about Roblox’s accounting quality.
However, some of these can be explained by the uniqueness of its metaverse-driven revenue model. 


Roblox (RBLX) And the Accounting Challenges Posed by the Metaverse

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Event-Driven

Adani Enterprises Limited is an international trading house that operates from offices in India as well as other countries. The Company is involved in coal mining, cargo handling and power generation.  Adani also trades in a large number of products including textiles, energy, metals and agricultural products.

<ul>
<li>Adani Group's handling of U.S. FCPA investigation disclosures highlights significant lapses in transparency, including delayed and contradictory statements.</li>
<li>Inconsistent disclosures and wrong disclosure about US investigations raising red flags for regulatory compliance and governance.</li>
<li>Search warrants for Sagar Adani, Nephew of Gautam Adani issued in Mar-23, which is not disclosed in fundraising documents as well as Annual Report. </li>
</ul>


Adani Group's handling of U.S. FCPA investigation disclosures highlights significant lapses in transparency, including delayed and contradictory statements.
Inconsistent disclosures and wrong disclosure about US investigations raising red flags for regulatory compliance and governance.
Search warrants for Sagar Adani, Nephew of Gautam Adani issued in Mar-23, which is not disclosed in fundraising documents as well as Annual Report. 


Adani Group's Crucial Disclosure Lapses About Bribery & US Investigation

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Dongwon Industries Co., Ltd. is a deep-sea fishing company.  The Company produces and distributes fish can goods and processed seafood products including tuna sashimi.

<ul>
<li>The December 2024 index review results for the KOSPI Indices were announced after the close on Thursday 21st November 2024.</li>
<li>There will be four ADDs and five DELs for KOSPI 200 during the December 2024 index rebal event. </li>
<li>We predicted 8 out of 9 changes correctly. We missed one of the DELs and we expected a couple extra changes which did not materialize.</li>
</ul>


The December 2024 index review results for the KOSPI Indices were announced after the close on Thursday 21st November 2024.
There will be four ADDs and five DELs for KOSPI 200 during the December 2024 index rebal event. 
We predicted 8 out of 9 changes correctly. We missed one of the DELs and we expected a couple extra changes which did not materialize.


KOSPI200 Dec24 Rebal: 4 ADDs, 5 DELs, Big ADV on Small Stocks

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Tuya Inc., doing business as Tuya Smart, provides IoT cloud platform. The Company offers solutions which enables brands, retailers, OEMs, and manufacturers to develop, launch, manage, and monetize software-enabled devices and services. Tuya Smart serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>On November 18th, 2024, Temasek-affiliated investment fund 65Equity bought 13% of TUYA, an IOT hardware company and planned to bring the company to list on the Singapore Stock Exchange;</li>
<li>TUYA is trading at US$901mn market cap, equivalent to 3.2x 12TTM sales. This isn't cheap. Xiaomi, a high flying stock, now trades at 2.0x 12TTM sales. TUYA is not profitable;</li>
<li>TUYA is a good and real company but in a bad business. Electronics inventory cycle and advanced stocking for Trump's Tariff Hike shall support earnings in the next few quarters.</li>
</ul>


On November 18th, 2024, Temasek-affiliated investment fund 65Equity bought 13% of TUYA, an IOT hardware company and planned to bring the company to list on the Singapore Stock Exchange;
TUYA is trading at US$901mn market cap, equivalent to 3.2x 12TTM sales. This isn't cheap. Xiaomi, a high flying stock, now trades at 2.0x 12TTM sales. TUYA is not profitable;
TUYA is a good and real company but in a bad business. Electronics inventory cycle and advanced stocking for Trump's Tariff Hike shall support earnings in the next few quarters.


TUYA: Is The King of White Label IOT Ready to Charter a Different Course?

Sell / Short Ideas
Outperform on the downside

NVIDIA Q3FY25 Growth Story Still On Track But Heed The Flaws In Jensen's GenAI Vision

NVIDIA's growth story remains intact, albeit it's slowing down. Jensen's claim that the existing $1 trillion general purpose data center stock will...

William Keating

Roblox (RBLX) And the Accounting Challenges Posed by the Metaverse

The metaverse's evolution creates new business models with challenges for corporate reporting. Concerning signals about Roblox's accounting...

Mark Jolley

Adani Group's Crucial Disclosure Lapses About Bribery & US Investigation

Adani Group's lack of transparency in handling U.S. FCPA investigation disclosures raises concerns about regulatory compliance and governance.

Nimish Maheshwari

KOSPI200 Dec24 Rebal: 4 ADDs, 5 DELs, Big ADV on Small Stocks

The KOSPI 200 December 2024 rebal has been announced. We got 8/9 right. One was borderline. One false positive is an issue we are checking, but the...

Travis Lundy

TUYA: Is The King of White Label IOT Ready to Charter a Different Course?

Temasek bought 13% of TUYA and planned to list on SGX. We believe TUYA's valuation is high and the company's business model, customer segment and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

NVIDIA Q3FY25 Growth Story Still On Track But Heed The Flaws In Jensen's GenAI Vision

NVIDIA's growth story remains intact, albeit it's slowing down. Jensen's claim that the existing $1 trillion general purpose data center stock will...

William Keating

Roblox (RBLX) And the Accounting Challenges Posed by the Metaverse

​The metaverse's evolution creates new business models with challenges for corporate reporting. Concerning signals about Roblox's accounting...

Mark Jolley

Adani Group's Crucial Disclosure Lapses About Bribery & US Investigation

​Adani Group's lack of transparency in handling U.S. FCPA investigation disclosures raises concerns about regulatory compliance and governance.

Nimish Maheshwari

KOSPI200 Dec24 Rebal: 4 ADDs, 5 DELs, Big ADV on Small Stocks

The KOSPI 200 December 2024 rebal has been announced. We got 8/9 right. One was borderline. One false positive is an issue we are checking, but the...

Travis Lundy

TUYA: Is The King of White Label IOT Ready to Charter a Different Course?

Temasek bought 13% of TUYA and planned to list on SGX. We believe TUYA's valuation is high and the company's business model, customer segment and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

The metaverse's evolution creates new business models with challenges for corporate reporting. Concerning signals about Roblox's accounting...

Adani Group's lack of transparency in handling U.S. FCPA investigation disclosures raises concerns about regulatory compliance and governance.