New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mainfreight Limited provides and supplies freight, warehousing and logistics services throughout New Zealand and Australia.  The Company provides freight forwarding services by road, rail, sea and air along with providing international freight forwarding services, customs clearance services and specialized handling of hazardous substances.

<ul><li>Mainfreight's recent de-rating reflects concerns about the worsening near-term economic outlook and decline in freight rates, suggesting challenging earnings growth in FY26.</li><li>The target price has been reduced from NZ$80 to NZ$73, reflecting earnings revisions for FY26 and de-rating of peers.</li><li>Trading conditions for Air &amp; Ocean operations are pressured, with sea freight rates falling and increased market competition impacting margins.</li></ul>

Mainfreight's recent de-rating reflects concerns about the worsening near-term economic outlook and decline in freight rates, suggesting challenging earnings growth in FY26.The target price has been reduced from NZ$80 to NZ$73, reflecting earnings revisions for FY26 and de-rating of peers.Trading conditions for Air &amp; Ocean operations are pressured, with sea freight rates falling and increased market competition impacting margins.

Mainfreight - Uneven Road Back to Trend Growth

Synlait Milk Ltd is a milk production company.  The Company produces, processes, markets and distributes milk, milk powder products and ingredients.

<ul><li>While Synlait Milk's (SML) EBITDA result was in line with the guidance provided in January, we think it is important to acknowledge it was a strong result in the circumstances (albeit cash flow and NPAT less so).</li><li>Advanced Nutritionals was the key driver, with strong margins supported by improved North Island and Dunsandel utilisation.</li><li>Looking ahead, SML delivered one of the more confusing guidance explanations we can recall. </li></ul>

While Synlait Milk's (SML) EBITDA result was in line with the guidance provided in January, we think it is important to acknowledge it was a strong result in the circumstances (albeit cash flow and NPAT less so).Advanced Nutritionals was the key driver, with strong margins supported by improved North Island and Dunsandel utilisation.Looking ahead, SML delivered one of the more confusing guidance explanations we can recall. 

Synlait Milk - 1H25 Result—Premature Celebrations?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. operates as a commercial bank. The Company provides deposits, loans, wealth management, asset custody, finance leasing, investment banking, and other banking services. China Merchants Bank conducts businesses domestically and internationally.

<ul>
<li>AH Premia bounce higher. Spread curve torsion was as expected. Narrow spreads saw Hs suffer more. Wide spreads saw H outperformance. </li>
<li>The last few weeks I said warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. This week they widened despite big SOUTHBOUND buying.</li>
<li>I expect the right thing to do is hunker down and be flat H/A risk.</li>
</ul>


AH Premia bounce higher. Spread curve torsion was as expected. Narrow spreads saw Hs suffer more. Wide spreads saw H outperformance. 
The last few weeks I said warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. This week they widened despite big SOUTHBOUND buying.
I expect the right thing to do is hunker down and be flat H/A risk.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Mar 2025):  AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

Weichai Power Co., Ltd. specializes in the research and development, manufacturing and sales of diesel engines. The company's products are applicable to markets such as, heavy-duty vehicles, coaches, construction machines, vessels and power generator.

<ul>
<li>Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous record of Q1 2021 by more than HK$100bn. This week was +HK$37bn.</li>
<li>That's decent net buying still. Keeping that pace would mean a new record. It IS possible this excess flow is state-managed (or state-insisted as insurers up equity investment ratios).</li>
<li>Included is a summary of important China Stocks-relevant news as I saw it this week, but tariffs, retaliation, US growth prospects, etc will all matter more. </li>
</ul>


Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous record of Q1 2021 by more than HK$100bn. This week was +HK$37bn.
That's decent net buying still. Keeping that pace would mean a new record. It IS possible this excess flow is state-managed (or state-insisted as insurers up equity investment ratios).
Included is a summary of important China Stocks-relevant news as I saw it this week, but tariffs, retaliation, US growth prospects, etc will all matter more. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2025); Banks and Divs Bought Again

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Mar 28th which has an aggregated holding worth USD902.6bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD2,403mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Quanta Computer, Asustek Computer, Eva Airways.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Mar 28th which has an aggregated holding worth USD902.6bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD2,403mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Quanta Computer, Asustek Computer, Eva Airways.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 28th): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Quanta Computer, Asustek Computer

Sell / Short Ideas
Outperform on the downside

Mainfreight - Uneven Road Back to Trend Growth

Mainfreight's recent de-rating reflects concerns about the worsening near-term economic outlook and decline in freight rates, suggesting...

Forsyth Barr

Synlait Milk - 1H25 Result—Premature Celebrations?

While Synlait Milk's (SML) EBITDA result was in line with the guidance provided in January, we think it is important to acknowledge it was a strong...

Forsyth Barr

A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Mar 2025): AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

AH Premia were up for the week despite net SB buying. Finally, H/A reflects local market benchmarks. A long trend may now be ending (I'm not clear...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2025); Banks and Divs Bought Again

Chinese banks get their expected capital injection and the world awaits tariffs but SOUTHBOUND investors continue to buy, making for a record...

Travis Lundy

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 28th): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Quanta Computer, Asustek Computer

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Quanta...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM