HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine Co. Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells medicine and pharmaceutical products in China.

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)

<ul>
<li>The real reason for CNPGC’s decision to abandon its promise may be "extraordinary". The "national security issue" seems to be a more reasonable explanation for the failure of this privatization.</li>
<li>A sustainable rebound in share prices will have to depend on obvious improvement in fundamentals and attractive dividends.We changed our valuation forecast. The investment logic of China TCM has changed.</li>
<li>China TCM may not deliver excess returns in the short term. If investors can't wait that long, offload directly and moving on to other opportunities is an option to consider.</li>
</ul>


The real reason for CNPGC’s decision to abandon its promise may be "extraordinary". The "national security issue" seems to be a more reasonable explanation for the failure of this privatization.
A sustainable rebound in share prices will have to depend on obvious improvement in fundamentals and attractive dividends.We changed our valuation forecast. The investment logic of China TCM has changed.
China TCM may not deliver excess returns in the short term. If investors can't wait that long, offload directly and moving on to other opportunities is an option to consider.


China TCM (570.HK) Update - The Real Reason For the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited manufactures semiconductors wafer foundry services. The Company produces embedded non-volatile memory, power discrete, analog, power management, and logic RF products. Hua Hong Semiconductor provides products for consumer electronics, communications, computing, industrial, and automotive fields.

<ul>
<li>The review period for the December rebalance of the CSI All Share Semiconductor Index ended 31 October.  The changes should be announced on 29 November and implemented on 13 December.</li>
<li>We forecast 12 adds and 6 deletes for the index with a one-way turnover of 2.5% and a one-way trade of CNY 642m (US$90m).</li>
<li>The forecast adds to the index have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months with a move higher in the short-term too.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the December rebalance of the CSI All Share Semiconductor Index ended 31 October.  The changes should be announced on 29 November and implemented on 13 December.
We forecast 12 adds and 6 deletes for the index with a one-way turnover of 2.5% and a one-way trade of CNY 642m (US$90m).
The forecast adds to the index have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months with a move higher in the short-term too.


CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes as Adds Outperform

Sieyuan Electric Company Limited manufactures and markets power supply and converting equipment as well as high voltage electrical apparatus and high voltage monitoring instruments.  The Company's  main products include arc suppression coils, variable frequency power sources, lightning arrester on-line monitoring instruments, and anti-disturbance test instruments.

<ul>
<li>There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials and Materials sectors could gaining 2 spots each and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover of 3% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 30.2bn (US$4.3bn). There are 14 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month despite rising markets and a wall of money flowing into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> ETFs.</li>
</ul>


There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials and Materials sectors could gaining 2 spots each and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.
Estimated one-way turnover of 3% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 30.2bn (US$4.3bn). There are 14 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month despite rising markets and a wall of money flowing into Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) ETFs.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Rising Markets and ETF Creations Take Round-Trip Trade to US$8.5bn

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Korea Zinc Co., Ltd. specializes in non-ferrous metal smelting industry.  The Company manufactures zinc ingots, electrolytic gold, silver, lead, sulfuric acid, and copper.  Korea Zinc provides its products to domestic and overseas markets.

<ul>
<li>Korea Zinc announced a massive rights offering worth 2.5 trillion won. The expected rights offering price is 670,000 won (57% lower than the closing price on 29 October).</li>
<li>The company plans to use 2.3 trillion won in debt repayment and 135 billion won for working capital as well as help to alleviate the risk of delisting. </li>
<li>This rights offering symbolizes a display of "Korea Discount" at its worst and likely to put continued negative pressure on Korea Zinc's share price in the coming weeks. </li>
</ul>


Korea Zinc announced a massive rights offering worth 2.5 trillion won. The expected rights offering price is 670,000 won (57% lower than the closing price on 29 October).
The company plans to use 2.3 trillion won in debt repayment and 135 billion won for working capital as well as help to alleviate the risk of delisting. 
This rights offering symbolizes a display of "Korea Discount" at its worst and likely to put continued negative pressure on Korea Zinc's share price in the coming weeks. 


Korea Zinc - Rights Offering of 2.5 Trillion Won Is a Display Of "Korea Discount" At Its Worst

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

FUJITEC CO., LTD. mainly manufactures elevators, escalators, and sky-parking systems by the orders from customers.  The Company also provides installation and repair services.  Fujitec has manufacturing bases in overseas including the USA, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea.

<ul>
<li>On 30 October, an FT <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d237189f-d372-474d-981e-c1d3b32c3c8c" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> appeared which pushed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitec-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11686:1" rel="noopener">Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP)</a> shares sharply higher. The headline? "Japanese lift maker Fujitec explores sale to private equity"
</li>
<li>The next day, mid-day, Fujitec "<a href="https://www.fujitec.com/uploads/2024/10/241031_hodo_en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">corrected</a>" the record, saying the articles (FT and others, presumably) contained "inaccuracies", including that "Fujitec is working to find a buyer."</li>
<li>They mention they have received a preliminary and non-binding initial proposal. The stock continued higher after that. Now investors have to decide how attractive an elevator/escalator business really is.</li>
</ul>


On 30 October, an FT article appeared which pushed Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP) shares sharply higher. The headline? "Japanese lift maker Fujitec explores sale to private equity"

The next day, mid-day, Fujitec "corrected" the record, saying the articles (FT and others, presumably) contained "inaccuracies", including that "Fujitec is working to find a buyer."
They mention they have received a preliminary and non-binding initial proposal. The stock continued higher after that. Now investors have to decide how attractive an elevator/escalator business really is.


Asian event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

Asia Event-Driven
Asian event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

China TCM (570.HK) Update - The Real Reason For the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook

China TCM's decision to abandon privatization may be due to national security concerns. We lowered 2024 forecast. Valuation rebound rely on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Rising Markets and ETF Creations Take Round-Trip Trade to US$8.5bn

There could be 17 changes in Dec. Estimated 1-way turnover is 3%; 1-way trade is US$4.3bn. There are 14 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade. The adds...

Brian Freitas

Korea Zinc - Rights Offering of 2.5 Trillion Won Is a Display Of "Korea Discount" At Its Worst

MBK Partners Chairman Kim Byung-Joo revealed for the first time on why he is pushing to acquire Korea Zinc. According to MBK Chairman, he mentioned...

Douglas Kim

Fujitec (6406 JP) - On the Block?

Fujitec may be on the block. An FT article suggests the company is talking to PE firms (wholly unsurprising) and the firm's "clarification" says a...

Travis Lundy

China TCM (570.HK) Update - The Real Reason For the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook

​China TCM's decision to abandon privatization may be due to national security concerns. We lowered 2024 forecast. Valuation rebound rely on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes as Adds Outperform

There could be 12 adds, 6 deletes in Dec. Impact is not very large, but 12 stocks will have flows from other index trackers too. The forecast adds...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Rising Markets and ETF Creations Take Round-Trip Trade to US$8.5bn

There could be 17 changes in Dec. Estimated 1-way turnover is 3%; 1-way trade is US$4.3bn. There are 14 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade. The adds...

Brian Freitas

Korea Zinc - Rights Offering of 2.5 Trillion Won Is a Display Of "Korea Discount" At Its Worst

MBK Partners Chairman Kim Byung-Joo revealed for the first time on why he is pushing to acquire Korea Zinc. According to MBK Chairman, he mentioned...

Douglas Kim

Fujitec (6406 JP) - On the Block?

Fujitec may be on the block. An FT article suggests the company is talking to PE firms (wholly unsurprising) and the firm's "clarification" says a...

Travis Lundy

China TCM's decision to abandon privatization may be due to national security concerns. We lowered 2024 forecast. Valuation rebound rely on...