Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

Bobcat Company specializes in design, manufacture, marketing and distribution of compact equipment for construction, rental, landscaping, agriculture, grounds maintenance, government, utility, industry and mining.

<ul>
<li>On 11 July, the Doosan Group announced a major business structure reorganization, including the delisting of Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS).</li>
<li>In our view (over the next 3-6 months), these transactions appear to be value-destroying for Doosan Bobcat and Doosan Enerbility minority shareholders but positive for Doosan Robotics shareholders.</li>
<li>Doosan Robotics plans to acquire the remaining 54% stake in Doosan Bobcat through a tender offer. Once Doosan Robotics fully owns Doosan Bobcat, its shares will be delisted.</li>
</ul>


On 11 July, the Doosan Group announced a major business structure reorganization, including the delisting of Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS).
In our view (over the next 3-6 months), these transactions appear to be value-destroying for Doosan Bobcat and Doosan Enerbility minority shareholders but positive for Doosan Robotics shareholders.
Doosan Robotics plans to acquire the remaining 54% stake in Doosan Bobcat through a tender offer. Once Doosan Robotics fully owns Doosan Bobcat, its shares will be delisted.


Reorganization of the Doosan Group: Why Delist Doosan Bobcat (Jewel of Doosan Group)?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

FANCL CORPORATION produces and sells additive-free skin care cosmetics for both women and men.  The Company's products include cleansing creams, hair care goods such as shampoos and conditioners, and facial make up products.  Fancl also makes and distributes dietary supplements including royal jelly and various tablets with extracted essence from mushrooms, garlic, ginseng, and soy beans.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a>’s JPY8,620 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a> closes on 29 July. The shares have traded above terms for 25 out of the 26 trading days.</li>
<li>MY.Alpha Management has amassed 10.3 million shares (8.51% ownership ratio) with several purchases above terms. MY.Alpha could catalyse other shareholders to rally against a light offer. </li>
<li>The emergence of MY.Alpha, the high volume above terms, peers re-rating, the required minority acceptance rate, and an offer unattractive to historical trading ranges increase the probability of a bump. </li>
</ul>



Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)’s JPY8,620 offer for Fancl Corp (4921 JP) closes on 29 July. The shares have traded above terms for 25 out of the 26 trading days.
MY.Alpha Management has amassed 10.3 million shares (8.51% ownership ratio) with several purchases above terms. MY.Alpha could catalyse other shareholders to rally against a light offer. 
The emergence of MY.Alpha, the high volume above terms, peers re-rating, the required minority acceptance rate, and an offer unattractive to historical trading ranges increase the probability of a bump. 


Fancl (4921 JP): Evaluating the Potential of Kirin (2503 JP) Offer Bump

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

SUN CORPORATION operates mainly Pachinko related business, information and communication business.  Pachinko related business includes developing, manufacturing and selling a system to control and monitor pachinko machine, and manage business operation.  Sun Corp. also manufactures Pachinko and household appliances and develops game software for family use.

<ul>
<li>Today, the final day of the Tender Offer that True Wind Capital launched on 10 June 2024 to buy 19% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a>, TWC raised its price to ¥4,750/share./</li>
<li>They also lowered their minimum from 3.7934mm shares (17.0%) to 3.3472mm shares (15.0%).</li>
<li>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite DI (CLBT US)</a> had traded higher, SunCorp had too, and even though shares fell today, they are at ¥4,785/share.</li>
</ul>


Today, the final day of the Tender Offer that True Wind Capital launched on 10 June 2024 to buy 19% of Sun Corp (6736 JP), TWC raised its price to ¥4,750/share./
They also lowered their minimum from 3.7934mm shares (17.0%) to 3.3472mm shares (15.0%).
As Cellebrite DI (CLBT US) had traded higher, SunCorp had too, and even though shares fell today, they are at ¥4,785/share.


True Wind Raises Partial TOB Price for Sun Corp (6736 JP) By 8%. Not Enough.

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>During Kim Byung-hwan's hearing, he acknowledged market concerns about the Doosan merger, increasing skepticism about Doosan's ability to maintain the original merger ratio.</li>
<li>Calculating Bobcat's net asset value using the net asset value method yields approximately ₩6.1T, derived from ₩5.95T in year-end equity plus ₩0.13T in adjustments.</li>
<li>Reassess arb trading opportunities; with no short hedge for Robotics, consider an outright long position in Bobcat if its swap price is revised and the spread widens.</li>
</ul>


During Kim Byung-hwan's hearing, he acknowledged market concerns about the Doosan merger, increasing skepticism about Doosan's ability to maintain the original merger ratio.
Calculating Bobcat's net asset value using the net asset value method yields approximately ₩6.1T, derived from ₩5.95T in year-end equity plus ₩0.13T in adjustments.
Reassess arb trading opportunities; with no short hedge for Robotics, consider an outright long position in Bobcat if its swap price is revised and the spread widens.


Robotics+Bobcat Merger: Merger Ratio Revision Possibility & Arb Spread Recalculations

Kumho Tire Co., Inc. designs and produces tires.  The Company's main products include various automobile tires and tubes used in sedan, SUV, RV, truck, and bus.  Kumho Tire also provides racing tires.

<ul>
<li>Woori Bank completed a block deal sale of 11 million shares of Kumho Tire Co (073240 KS) (3.83% of outstanding shares) on 18 July. </li>
<li>After the recent sales by Woori Bank and the Export-Import Bank of Korea, the creditors' stakes in Kumho Tire has been reduced to 19.17%.</li>
<li><em><strong>Despite Kumho Tire's recent improvement in financial performance, we are more concerned about the additional stake sale by the financial institutions that still own 19.2% stake in the company.  </strong></em></li>
</ul>


Woori Bank completed a block deal sale of 11 million shares of Kumho Tire Co (073240 KS) (3.83% of outstanding shares) on 18 July. 
After the recent sales by Woori Bank and the Export-Import Bank of Korea, the creditors' stakes in Kumho Tire has been reduced to 19.17%.
Despite Kumho Tire's recent improvement in financial performance, we are more concerned about the additional stake sale by the financial institutions that still own 19.2% stake in the company.  


Block Deal Sale of Kumho Tire: More Shares Likely to Be Sold by Creditors

Asian event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

Asia Event-Driven
Asian event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

Reorganization of the Doosan Group: Why Delist Doosan Bobcat (Jewel of Doosan Group)?

There has been a major backlash among both domestic and overseas investors on the split of Doosan Enerbility, merger swap between Doosan Enerbility...

Douglas Kim

Fancl (4921 JP): Evaluating the Potential of Kirin (2503 JP) Offer Bump

The shares have consistently traded above terms and the emergence of MY.Alpha’s stake adds to the mounting reasons for a bump. A revised offer...

Arun George

True Wind Raises Partial TOB Price for Sun Corp (6736 JP) By 8%. Not Enough.

True Wind - the original SPAC sponsor for Cellebrite - has raised its Tender Offer Price for a stake in Sun Corp - owner of 50% of CLBT. They still...

Travis Lundy

Robotics+Bobcat Merger: Merger Ratio Revision Possibility & Arb Spread Recalculations

This post explores the potential revision of the Doosan Robotics & Bobcat merger ratio and recalculates the resulting arb spread.

Sanghyun Park

Block Deal Sale of Kumho Tire: More Shares Likely to Be Sold by Creditors

Despite Kumho Tire's recent improvement in financial performance, we are more concerned about the additional stake sale by the financial...

Douglas Kim