IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Goldlion Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, distributes and manufactures garments and accessories.  The Company also invests in properties and operates a commercial center with restaurants and a business center.

<ul>
<li>On 17 December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldlion-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12359:1" rel="noopener">Goldlion Holdings (533 HK)</a> announced a scheme offer from Mr Tsang (Chairman/CEO) at HK$1.5232 per share, a 71.1% premium to the undisturbed price of HK$0.89 (20 November). </li>
<li>The key condition is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders rejection). The shareholder with a blocking stake is a seller. </li>
<li>The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a late April payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.3%/22.7%.</li>
</ul>


On 17 December, Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) announced a scheme offer from Mr Tsang (Chairman/CEO) at HK$1.5232 per share, a 71.1% premium to the undisturbed price of HK$0.89 (20 November). 
The key condition is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders rejection). The shareholder with a blocking stake is a seller. 
The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a late April payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.3%/22.7%.


Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): Chairman’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

<ul>
<li>All 5 trading days of the past week saw non-volatile price declines but with implied vols still ticking higher leaving historic vol and implied vol moving in opposite directions.</li>
<li>Trading activity focused on Puts, 59.5% of all options trades were Puts last week</li>
<li>Postions being covered into market weakness as seen from large decrease in open interest (60% of the decline was Puts).</li>
</ul>


All 5 trading days of the past week saw non-volatile price declines but with implied vols still ticking higher leaving historic vol and implied vol moving in opposite directions.
Trading activity focused on Puts, 59.5% of all options trades were Puts last week
Postions being covered into market weakness as seen from large decrease in open interest (60% of the decline was Puts).


EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly - December 16 - 20

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>Kospi is now off 20% from its 52-week highs. Historic vols are picking up and implieds looking like good value given market dynamics.</li>
<li>Hedging increased with broad based positioning in Puts across out-of-the-money strikes.</li>
<li>Heavier volume in Puts with 53.2% of added open interest being Puts.</li>
</ul>


Kospi is now off 20% from its 52-week highs. Historic vols are picking up and implieds looking like good value given market dynamics.
Hedging increased with broad based positioning in Puts across out-of-the-money strikes.
Heavier volume in Puts with 53.2% of added open interest being Puts.


EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly - December 16 - 20

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Communication Services had 39% of single stock option volumes vs only 22% of the open interest highlighting short expiry / speculative nature of trading.</li>
<li>Tencent and Baidu heading in opposite directions – Baidu vol on the inexpensive side vs Tencent vol.</li>
<li>Xiaomi one of only 2 optionable names trading at 52-week high (Sunny optical being the other).</li>
</ul>


Communication Services had 39% of single stock option volumes vs only 22% of the open interest highlighting short expiry / speculative nature of trading.
Tencent and Baidu heading in opposite directions – Baidu vol on the inexpensive side vs Tencent vol.
Xiaomi one of only 2 optionable names trading at 52-week high (Sunny optical being the other).


EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 16 – 20

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Shanghai Henlius Biotech, Inc develops and produces drugs. The Company develops and produces monoclonal antibody biosimilar drugs, bio betters, novel monoclonal antibodys, and other drugs. Shanghai Henlius Biotech throughout China.

<ul>
<li>After <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a></strong> secured NDRC approval on the 22nd Nov; fulfilled pre-cons on the 16th December, the Circular was dispatched last night, the 22nd December. </li>
<li>The EGM/H-share class meeting will take place on the 22nd January, one day past my estimate. Settlement should be on ore around the 18th Feb, a week beyond my estimate. </li>
<li>Trading at a gross/annualised spread off 2.9%/20.3%. Still attractive here.</li>
</ul>


After Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) secured NDRC approval on the 22nd Nov; fulfilled pre-cons on the 16th December, the Circular was dispatched last night, the 22nd December. 
The EGM/H-share class meeting will take place on the 22nd January, one day past my estimate. Settlement should be on ore around the 18th Feb, a week beyond my estimate. 
Trading at a gross/annualised spread off 2.9%/20.3%. Still attractive here.


Henlius (2696 HK): Circ Out. 22nd Jan H-Class Meeting

Asian event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

Asia Event-Driven
Asian event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): Chairman’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal

The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a late April payment, the gross...

Arun George

EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly - December 16 - 20

Non-volatile price declines with implied vols rising, leading to historic vol and implied vol moving in opposite directions and implied vols not...

John Ley

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly - December 16 - 20

Kospi's 20% drop from 52-week highs prompts increased hedging through out-of-the-money Puts, with implied volatility offering good value vs normal...

John Ley

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 16 – 20

Tencent and Baidu showing contrasting price and volatility levels with Baidu implied vol looking relatively inexpensive. Xiaomi stands out as one...

John Ley

Henlius (2696 HK): Circ Out. 22nd Jan H-Class Meeting

Currently at a 2.9% gross spread with expected payment around the third week of Feb. I'd pay up to HK$24.10/share for a 15% annualised spread.

David Blennerhassett

Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): Chairman’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal

The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a late April payment, the gross...

Arun George

EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly - December 16 - 20

​Non-volatile price declines with implied vols rising, leading to historic vol and implied vol moving in opposite directions and implied vols not...

John Ley

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly - December 16 - 20

​Kospi's 20% drop from 52-week highs prompts increased hedging through out-of-the-money Puts, with implied volatility offering good value vs normal...

John Ley

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 16 – 20

Tencent and Baidu showing contrasting price and volatility levels with Baidu implied vol looking relatively inexpensive. Xiaomi stands out as one...

John Ley

Henlius (2696 HK): Circ Out. 22nd Jan H-Class Meeting

Currently at a 2.9% gross spread with expected payment around the third week of Feb. I'd pay up to HK$24.10/share for a 15% annualised spread.

David Blennerhassett

Non-volatile price declines with implied vols rising, leading to historic vol and implied vol moving in opposite directions and implied vols not...

Kospi's 20% drop from 52-week highs prompts increased hedging through out-of-the-money Puts, with implied volatility offering good value vs normal...